Increased Stocking Activities Catapult Belgium Calcium Nitrate Prices

Antwerp (Belgium): Calcium Nitrate prices escalated in Europe in March 2024 as restocking demand strengthened with relaxed supply chains, improved production, and higher temperatures compared to the previous two months. This contrasts with Urea volumes and prices, as demand for Ammonia fell primarily due to new capacity additions in India and China. The trend is expected to continue throughout the second quarter before summer sowing begins in major economies. High rainfall and warmer climates contributed to stronger demand for Calcium Nitrate.

In European markets, prices of Calcium Nitrate turned bullish primarily as the Norwegian winter situation eased, and production of raw materials improved by early March 2024 as temperatures rose higher than in February. Raw material supply and stocking up in the upstream market improved, with calcium carbonate prices increasing by 3% monthly.

The cost transfer was immediately pushed down the Calcium Nitrate value chain due to favorable market dynamics and a strong climate environment after heavy rainfall observed until February in Northern Europe. CFR Antwerp prices for Calcium Nitrate were assessed around USD 480/MT higher than February prices. CPI and food price index for Europe show an uptick in demand for horticultural products, especially in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italian markets.

Calcium Nitrate’s demand remains positive in Europe in the second quarter of FY24 as demand for wines and other beverages improves with increasing purchasing propensity in Europe. Data suggests that Calcium Nitrate demand for FY23-24 remained subdued due to high input and fertilizer costs of Urea and phosphate, owing to costlier contract negotiations after June 2022. In January and February 2024, major strikes by farmers across Belgium, Germany, and other European countries led to agreements to reduce the cost burden on fertilizers, especially Calcium Nitrate, which was contracted from Norway at significant premiums, pulling up prices from USD 280/MT to USD 600/MT for the period of FY22-23.

This led to a reduction in acreage in fruits and horticulture supply in FY23-24, and lower demand for Calcium Nitrate persisted until November 2023, with contract discounts provided by Norwegian suppliers to accommodate weak downstream demand. Inventories have remained usually higher when assessing the bi-annual nature of Calcium Nitrate and other fertilizer demand, indicating that price rise in FY24/25 is expected to be modest and largely driven by consumer sentiments rather than upstream inventory and other factors. Farm input prices have fallen, although not substantially, further hindering Calcium Nitrate price recovery as demand remains modest.

ChemAnalyst’s three-month forecast for Calcium Nitrate CFR Antwerp is assessed to be bullish owing to inventory pressures, rising consumption in Italian, Dutch, and Belgian markets, and increased production and freight availabilities for the given timeframe. Calcium carbonate prices have also started to recover due to increased demand, adding cost pressure for Calcium Nitrate in the coming months.