For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the Calcium Nitrate market in the North American region, particularly USA showed a mixed trend. October saw prices increase by 3.9%, driven by seasonal inventory build-up for the planting season and reduced credit costs boosting agricultural optimism. Increased imports from Europe supported supply, although rising raw material and energy costs put pressure on production levels.
While October showed strength, November and December presented a more bearish picture. Global logistical disruptions, particularly port congestion in Europe, led to higher landed costs and tighter supply. In November, moderate demand from the winter planting season in some European countries was tempered by supply chain issues and rising costs. December saw a marginal price decline in the US due to robust inventory levels and subdued demand from the fertilizer sector. However, this decline is expected to be temporary.
Market participants faced significant challenges. Rising raw material and energy costs, coupled with increased freight rates due to logistical disruptions, impacted profitability. The balance between supply from imports (and the related logistical challenges), domestic demand linked to the planting seasons, and global market trends created considerable price volatility throughout the quarter.
The quarter ended at USD 520/MT CFR New York, reflecting the December price dip. Despite the temporary bearish trend, significant price increases are anticipated in early 2025 due to announcements of price hikes from major European producers and expected increased demand during the spring planting season.
APAC
The APAC Calcium Nitrate market, particularly in China, experienced fluctuating trends in Q4 2024. Prices started strong in October, driven by increased agricultural demand during the rice harvest and favorable planting conditions. Ample domestic supply, supported by readily available calcium carbonate feedstock, contributed to this bullish trend. Increased exports to NE Asia further strengthened the market.
While China maintained stable production and inventory, global markets experienced varied dynamics. India, Belgium, Spain, and the USA faced supply-demand imbalances due to agricultural disruptions and logistical challenges. Port congestion in China increased shipping costs, impacting export efficiency. Domestic Chinese demand slowed due to seasonal factors, leading to limited spot trading and price volatility. A bearish trend emerged in December, with prices declining by approximately 1% due to weak fertilizer sector demand and export restrictions. Reduced export activities and inventory buildup led to slower production rates. However, the market anticipates a significant price hike in early 2025 due to supply adjustments and price increases from European producers.
Market participants faced several key challenges. Port congestion in China increased logistical costs and decreased export efficiency. Fluctuating global demand, coupled with seasonal impacts and export restrictions in China, created significant price volatility. The interplay of domestic supply, international market conditions, and government policies created uncertainty throughout the quarter, impacting pricing and overall market stability. The quarter ended with prices at USD 233/MT FOB Shanghai, reflecting the bearish trend of December.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Calcium Nitrate market in the European market, particularly in Belgium showed a price increase in October, driven by strong demand for the upcoming planting season in Southern Europe. Belgium actively stocked up to meet this demand. However, supply remained moderate due to limited raw material availability and higher energy costs impacting production. While October showed a price increase, November and December reflected a more bearish global trend. Logistical disruptions in Europe, including port congestion and labor strikes, led to higher landed costs and tighter supply. Moderate demand in Belgium and Spain for the winter planting season was tempered by these supply chain issues and rising costs. December saw a marginal price decline due to subdued global fertilizer demand and inventory challenges.
Market participants faced numerous challenges. Rising raw material and energy costs, exacerbated by logistical disruptions and energy market volatility, significantly impacted production and profitability. The balance between meeting the strong demand for the planting season and dealing with supply chain issues and global market trends created considerable price volatility throughout the quarter. The interplay of domestic supply, international market conditions, and the timing of the planting season significantly influenced pricing and overall market stability.
The quarter ended at USD 480/MT CFR Antwerp, reflecting the December price dip. Despite this temporary decline, significant price increases are anticipated in early 2025 due to announced price hikes from major producers (like Yara) for related products (CAN) and the expected increased demand during the spring planting season.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American region experienced a significant rise in Calcium Nitrate prices, with the USA witnessing the most pronounced changes. Several key factors influenced market prices during this quarter, including heightened demand stemming from the post-harvest season and robust trade activity in the Mediterranean region. Improved cost support from feedstock also played a critical role in driving prices upward. Additionally, the planting season for wheat and other crops led to increased import demand, while cost pressures mounted due to surging gas prices and a recovery in Ammonia prices. Despite challenges such as plant shutdowns, the overall pricing trend for Calcium Nitrate in the region remained positive, indicating a strengthening market sentiment.
When comparing prices to the same quarter last year, a notable increase was observed. However, there was a slight decrease of 2% from the price assessed in September 2024 over September 2023. This indicates some fluctuations in the market that need to be addressed as demand dynamics shift. A comparison undertaken for calcium nitrate’s cumulative price fluctuation throughout the quarter, a 5% increase was observed, demonstrating the market's resilience and ability to adapt to changing conditions.
By the end of the quarter, the price for Calcium Nitrate CFR New York in the USA reached USD 517/MT, reflecting the overall upward momentum in pricing within the region. This price point underscores the market's strength amid various pressures and disruptions, suggesting that the Calcium Nitrate sector in North America is positioned for continued growth despite external challenges.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Calcium Nitrate market in the APAC region experienced a stable pricing environment, with several key factors influencing market conditions. Consistent demand, driven by ongoing agricultural activities such as the harvest and planting seasons, maintained steady consumption. Meanwhile, supply levels remained sufficient, supported by stable production and healthy inventory levels. The absence of major disruptions or plant shutdowns contributed significantly to overall market stability. China, in particular, saw the most notable price fluctuations, although these changes were marginal and aligned with global trends in the Calcium Nitrate market. Seasonal factors and production rates played a pivotal role in determining price movements. Despite minor variations, the price correlation between countries within the APAC region remained largely consistent, further reinforcing the stable outlook. Compared to the same quarter in 2023, prices showed little change, indicating a sustained pricing trend. Similarly, the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant deviations. By the end of the quarter, the price for Calcium Nitrate FOB Shanghai in China stood at USD 235/MT, reflecting the steady sentiment that prevailed throughout the period.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the European Calcium Nitrate market experienced a notable upward trend in prices, with Spain witnessing the most significant changes. This price surge can be attributed to various factors, including increased demand for Calcium Nitrate in preparation for the upcoming planting season, lower credit costs, and favorable weather conditions that led to a heightened demand for fertilizers. Additionally, reduced rainfall in certain regions and improved economic conditions further contributed to the rising prices, creating a favorable environment for producers and suppliers. In Spain, prices demonstrated substantial fluctuations, culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 496/MT of Calcium Nitrate CFR Bilbao. The Spanish market was influenced by several dynamics, such as high inventory levels, ongoing harvest activities, and extended mid-season periods. The interplay of these elements resulted in a 5% price surge throughout the quarter, highlighting the volatility and responsiveness of the market to changing conditions. Overall, the pricing environment for Calcium Nitrate in Europe during Q3 2024 was characterized by positive sentiment, driven by robust demand, seasonal trends, and various market dynamics. The quarter saw a notable increase in prices compared to the same period last year, indicating a growing and strengthening market for Calcium Nitrate across the region. This upward momentum reflects the sector's resilience and adaptability amid evolving agricultural demands and economic factors.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American market for Calcium Nitrate has experienced a significant decline in prices. This downturn was driven by several key factors, including an oversupply situation exacerbated by high inventory levels in previous months and reduced import activity. Adverse weather conditions, such as the extended dry spells in critical agricultural regions, compounded the issue. These factors led to a sluggish demand for calcium nitrate, particularly as planting activities were delayed or reduced.
In the USA, the market saw pronounced price fluctuations, with a noticeable -4% decrease from the first to the second half of the quarter. The overall trend was bearish, reflecting a consistent decrease in prices. The seasonal impact was evident as dry weather curtailed the use of calcium nitrate, typically used in conjunction with ammonium nitrate. This was further influenced by the slowdown in Mexican exports due to similar drought conditions, which led to an oversupply in the region.
The correlation between reduced agricultural activities and calcium nitrate prices was apparent, with the market reacting to lower consumption rates. The Q2 closing price for calcium nitrate in the USA was USD 500/MT CFR New York, indicating a negative pricing environment throughout the quarter. Additionally, disruptions and plant shutdowns, such as those in the Northern Mexican and Midwestern US regions, played a crucial role in the declining prices. These factors collectively paint a picture of a challenging quarter for calcium nitrate, marked by a downward price trajectory and an overall negative market sentiment.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the calcium nitrate market in the APAC region experienced significant price increases, driven by a combination of robust demand, supply chain disruptions, and seasonal factors. The quarter saw an upward trend in prices, primarily due to heightened demand for fertilizers and nitric acid, particularly as regional agricultural activities intensified. Supply constraints were exacerbated by logistical challenges, including persistent freight issues and port congestions, which further strained availability and led to elevated costs. Additionally, rising prices for key raw materials such as phosphate rock and ammonia added to the upward pressure on calcium nitrate prices. China, experiencing the maximum price fluctuations, epitomized these trends. With increasing acreage and agricultural activities, coupled with pre-summer stockpiling, the market saw a pronounced surge in demand. Seasonal factors, such as favorable temperatures for horticulture and fruits, coupled with the anticipation of a normal monsoon, bolstered this demand. The supply remained tight as Chinese producers focused on meeting domestic needs, often at the expense of exports. This supply-demand imbalance led to significant price rises. From the end of the previous quarter, calcium nitrate prices in China rose by 4.8%, indicating a strong upward momentum. The first half of the quarter saw a more moderate increase, while the second half experienced a sharper 5% rise, reflecting intensified market dynamics. The quarter concluded with calcium nitrate prices reaching USD 240/MT FOB Shanghai, underscoring a consistent positive pricing environment throughout Q2 2024.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European market for Calcium Nitrate experienced a notable downturn. This quarter has been marked by several key factors influencing the pricing environment. Adverse weather conditions, particularly excessive rainfall, significantly hampered agricultural activities, causing a dampened demand for Calcium Nitrate as a fertilizer. Concurrently, the persistent farmers' protests and industrial disruptions across the region led to an oversupply of the compound, with producers holding substantial inventories from earlier in the year. Furthermore, the appreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar applied additional downward pressure on prices, making exports less competitive. Spain has been at the epicenter of these price fluctuations, seeing the most significant changes. The country's northern regions experienced surplus rainfall, which, while promoting an initial spike in demand, eventually led to oversaturation and reduced agricultural uptake. The southern regions, conversely, suffered from dryness, further diminishing consumption. The cumulative effect was a stark contrast in pricing trends, heavily influenced by seasonality and regional imbalances. Compared to the previous quarter, prices saw a decline of 2%, and a more pronounced drop of 4.3% when comparing the first and second half of Q2 2024. Seasonal factors, compounded by socio-political disruptions and inventory rollovers, have largely driven the market sentiment towards a negative trajectory. The latest quarter-ending price for Calcium Nitrate CFR Bilbao in Spain stands at USD 480/MT, encapsulating the bearish market conditions reflective of the broader European landscape. Thus, the pricing environment for this quarter has been distinctly negative, underscored by an overarching context of decreasing demand and excess supply.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Calcium Nitrate in the North America region were influenced by a combination of factors. While the overall trend was bearish, with prices declining, there were nuances in the market situation that contributed to this. In the USA, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, the decline in prices can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, there were plant shutdowns that impacted supply. One notable plant shutdown was observed in Norway, a major supplier of Calcium Nitrate, due to strong winter storms. This disruption in the supply chain contributed to the tightening of supply and put downward pressure on prices. Additionally, lower demand in the USA, driven by reduced winter sowing acreage and dry weather conditions, further contributed to the decline in prices.
Comparing the prices in Q1 2024 to the same quarter last year, there was a significant decrease in prices. This can be attributed to the combination of increased supply from Norway, lower demand, and favorable feedstock prices. Furthermore, when comparing Q1 2024 to the last quarter of 2023, there was a slight decrease in prices. This can be attributed to the carryover of excess stock from the previous year and the continued impact of lower demand.
In conclusion, the final price for Calcium Nitrate CFR New York in the USA for Q1 2024 was USD 520/MT. The pricing dynamics were influenced by a range of factors, including plant shutdowns, supply disruptions, lower demand, and favorable feedstock prices. These factors contributed to a bearish trend in prices, with a significant decrease compared to the same quarter last year and a slight decrease compared to the previous quarter of 2023.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Calcium Nitrate in Europe were influenced by a variety of factors. While the overall trend was bearish, with prices declining, the market situation in Belgium stood out with more pronounced price fluctuations. The pricing in Belgium was impacted by factors such as low inventory levels, reduced imports due to domestic traders holding onto supplies, and lower demand from farmers and the industrial sector.
The surplus of Calcium Nitrate from the previous year contributed to the steeper price drop in Belgium. The seasonality of the market also played a role, with unusually warm and dry weather across Northern Europe leading to decreased farming activity and lower demand for Calcium Nitrate. Norway, major supplier of Calcium Nitrate observed lower activities owing to cold weather till the end of February, though deliveries continued. In terms of year-over-year, price change of 34% was observed in the given quarter.
Comparison between the last quarter of FY23-24 and first quarter of FY24-25 show prices deflated by 12%. The final quarter's price for Calcium Nitrate CFR Antwerp in Belgium was stated as USD 480/MT. Overall, the pricing dynamics of Calcium Nitrate in Europe in Q1 2024 were influenced by a range of factors, including inventory levels, import patterns, demand fluctuations, and seasonality.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Calcium Nitrate in the APAC region were influenced by various factors. The overall trend in China, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, was bearish, with prices declining throughout the quarter. This trend was driven by falling feedstock prices and a continued destocking of Calcium Nitrate into the market.
The market situation in China was characterized by low to moderate supply, with domestic supply tightening and export controls being relaxed. Labor supply challenges and cold temperatures led to plant shutdowns, including the Shanxi JiaoCheng plant. Demand for Calcium Nitrate in China remained low to moderate, affected by strong cold currents and delays in winter sowing. However, demand is expected to improve as temperatures rise and sowing acreage increases.
The year-over-year price change from the. However, from the last quarter of 2023, prices declined by USD 13/MT or 5.6%. The final price for Calcium Nitrate FOB Shanghai in China was USD 225/MT.
