Calcium Nitrate Pices Bottom out in Europe and North America, Expect Modest Recovery in H2 2024

Calcium Nitrate prices continue to trend downward in July, as assessed by ChemAnalyst. The prices dropped 4% in June while the incoming quotations for July continue to show similar trend however the drop eased to 2-3% this month. The drop in Calcium Nitrate prices have been attested to high input electricity and feedstock cost. However, the deflationary trend since 2023 has led to easing of prices, though not at the required pace. Calcium Nitrate is a major component of fertilizer marketed as Calcium Ammonium Nitrate for farmers throughout the globe. Yara and ATOME, both Europe based organization has inked the pact for development and sale of Calcium Ammonium Nitrate with the site located in Paraguay, Latin America. This has led to bullish sentiment as Calcium Nitrate suppliers for Americas expect stronger domestic supply and de-coupling of the American fertilizer industry from Europe bound deliveries.

According to the statement, Yara will market and sell Calcium Ammonium Nitrate as a part of YaraBela product line. The plant in Paraguay is expected to fulfill the sustainability and the Renewable guidelines and obligations of Yara. ChemAnalyst assessed that the Paraguay locations is favorable for Yara and ATOME as prices of their feedstock for their product in Paraguay is relatively cheaper and profitable than Belgium based deliveries. ChemAnalyst assessed that Belgium bound deliveries of Calcium Carbonate industrial grade FOB Antwerp has been priced around USD 270/MT significantly higher than China, priced around USD 100/MT.

Another important challenge the Calcium Nitrate producers face in Europe has been the carbon costs. Carbon cost remained significantly higher, averaging around USD 69/MT, above the cap given to the industrial gas emissions. These challenges have led for financially viable and sustainable source of procuring Calcium Nitrate. North American markets currently import significant volumes of Calcium Nitrate from Norway. Import dependence in an era of heightened protectionism and geopolitical tensions continues to remain number one risk for producers worldwide. However, cost competitiveness and bringing global fertilizers down and de-coupling from Russian Calcium Nitrate supplies, the new project of Yara to bring significant benefits for the Western hemisphere.

Calcium Nitrate is currently being traded in the range of USD 500/MT, which has been 70% higher than pre-pandemic last recorded price, according to ChemAnalyst. The cost burden in European supply chain has largely been driven by gas embargo by Russia which has led to higher LNG supplies, triggering rise in feedstock as well as energy prices as high as three times. However, the price deflationary pressure for Calcium Nitrate when compared to the recorded August 2019 prices over July 2024 prices show only 15-17% fall in Calcium Nitrate prices occurred, while the overall fertilizer and economic cost has been observed by the economy. This situation for Calcium Nitrate buyers is not favorable as food prices have deflated to pre-pandemic levels, hurting farmer’s margin significantly. This project is anticipated, through their exports to North American and Europe to ease cost pressures.