August 2024: Calcium Nitrate Price Rises in North America and Europe, Persisting Bullish Outlook

European Calcium Nitrate price assessment for August showed upward price movement in August, the latest assessment undertaken by ChemAnalyst revealed. The price movement was driven by robust demand from Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (fertilizer grade) and tightening of export market observed in a major market, Spain. CFR Bilbao Calcium Nitrate assessed this week hit USD 485/MT, a surge of 1.5% over July prices. The North American market, especially CFR New York bound deliveries from Norway also surged and reached USD 505/MT as European market tightened. The situation in the production side remained lackluster for price recovery as raw materials cost continue to decline driven by downturns and lower energy cost. A bullish trend has been forecasted for Calcium Nitrate for September as the active trading session and planting season across Southern European markets is likely to begin.

In August, the prices of European Calcium Nitrate surged due to improved demand in the domestic market as stocking operations for the winter-based cropping season began. Imports of Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) dropped by 50% YoY basis in August, while exports of CAN dropped by 40%. On the other hand, the prices of Calcium Nitrate surged by 1.5% driven largely by higher demand in Spain due to sufficient moisture levels and favorable weather for the next two months, revealed Copernicus Climate Agency. The domestic procurements of Calcium Nitrate declined as FOB Barcelona deliveries of feedstock Calcium Carbonate to Europe bottomed out at USD 247/MT, dropping by 4%.

The integrated CAN margins for domestic Eurozone supply in August were assessed to be low indicating European production has remained subdued due to unfavorable profitability and major supply has been from Norway’s integrated production. Yet the domestic consumption of Calcium Nitrate surged in August as higher margins for CAN is expected for September and October amidst anticipated stronger demand. With lower rainfall days observed throughout Europe in August and fair weather for September and October, the markets have been preparing for planting season in Southern France, Eastern Spain, Italy and other Mediterranean countries.

North American markets saw their prices for Calcium Nitrate also moving up due to expensive supply from Norway. The integrated margins for US based supply also remained low amidst higher raw material costs and high consumption of Calcium Nitrate driven by robust weather. NOAA forecast for more than average rainfall in Mid-West US and Southern regions due to cyclonic disturbances has forced the fertilizer producers to pull up the prices for Calcium Nitrate. Feedstock Calcium Carbonate prices are set for modest movement in September, ChemAnalyst assessment revealed.