Global Calcium Nitrate Markets Hold Steady Ground in Feb 2024, despite China goes off-stream

Prices of Calcium Nitrate held steady against rising demand in European and American markets as FY24 restocking commences with supply situation getting disrupted owing to seasonal challenges. On the other side of continent, Calcium Nitrate markets in East Asia turned lull with the markets going off-stream with prices holding by the end of month impacted largely by delayed monsoonal showers and lower demand sentiments due to El Nino effects observed in January. Overall, prices held steady across the board as improved deliveries offset FY23 demand slump.

In European and American markets, volumes improved owing to recovery in demand in the US markets after strong corn and soyabean harvests partially offset by slump in Brazil after dry and delayed agricultural season. Calcium Nitrate inventories with suppliers in Brazil continued to remain on the higher end with prices remaining elevated compared to pre-crisis levels. Brazil have faced series of weak harvests past three years largely owing to seasonal disruptions. FY23 observed strong recovery in procurement. Data on Calcium Nitrate suggests that Brazilian procured 36% higher volumes in FY23 at 4% lower prices than FY22. This is attributed to increase in Calcium Nitrate imports from China rather than US markets. US markets on the other hand observed strong agricultural season with record harvests of corn with prices of corn falling for the second consecutive year.

US secured Calcium Nitrate supply in FY22 with FY23 volumes falling by 20% over FY22 volumes with prices of Calcium Nitrate falling by 6% over FY22 contract prices indicating farmers continue to face high price pressure as corn prices have fallen for FY24. Despite poor farmer conditions, Calcium Nitrate demand in US is surging with high inventory pressures observed in US markets. European Calcium Nitrate markets largely following US markets trends although with softer pace as food inflation data read with Norwegian supply flow to Europe in the month of January FY24 viz-a-viz FY23 average shows inventory buildup has begun. While price moderation observed in FY23 in Europe remained on the softer note due to supply disruptions, Spanish markets are facing weak inventory pressures due to dry and warm weather subduing agricultural productivity. Data suggests that Spanish demand for Calcium Nitrate to remain weaker while offset by strong demand from Northern European markets of Belgium, Netherlands, Poland, and Germany.

Asian Calcium Nitrate markets remained subdued in FY23 and continues their trend in FY24 with prices improving from late January 2024 as Chinese and Korean demand is showing recovery in volumes led by China partially offset by weak Indian procurement in January and February 2024 as delayed rains and El Nino continue to affect Indian procurement. With East Asian markets remaining offline in February coupled with rise in Indian demand is pulling up Calcium Nitrate demand in Asian markets at faster tone than European due to disrupted supply lines. The trend is expected to remain bullish in Indian Calcium Nitrate markets till Monsoon although with moderate pacing to be seen in April.