Anticipated Bullish Trend in Calcium Nitrate Prices as Europe Braces for November Chill

According to Copernicus Climate Change Service, winter hit Europe earlier than anticipated in the second week of November 2023, a month earlier than anticipated, as October remained one of the warmest months in the last decade. The fertilizer industry is facing an uncertain situation as players in the Calcium Nitrate market have improved their procurement volumes for the next sowing season. Prices of Calcium Nitrate and other Nitrogen fertilizers have already hit a 5% MoM change, a month-forward shift in the usual business cycle.

Prices of Calcium Nitrate were assessed at USD 525/MT CFR Antwerp in Northern Europe as procurement activities remained lackluster as warm weather prevailed in southwestern and southern regions. Market players expected a delayed winter in October 2023. Ammonia and Urea prices were on the lower end previously; with the arrival of November, prices began their bullish stance as temperatures dropped at a higher pace than anticipated, subduing the Long-term Average duration for the transition into winter. Italian markets, one of the largest consumers of Calcium Nitrate, is facing challenges pertaining to a reduction of yield due to a drop in temperatures and unseasonal stormy weather. Energy prices, especially Natural gas, at the beginning of November saw destocking in the global market, pulling down feedstock prices for Calcium Nitrate-based fertilizers. Again, there was a moderation in price decline by the third week of November as temperatures dropped. Prices of natural gas assessed at EUR 44.65/MWh in Germany are holding steady as the market is currently assessing the impact of weather. Norway, the largest Calcium Nitrate exporter, faces subzero temperatures and supply challenges. USDA estimates that global supplies are expected to be higher than consumption on the back of higher beginning stocks, while the global production in Q4FY23 and H1FY24 is expected to be 1.5-2% lower than FY22/23 production on account of lower yield and acreage in India, China, etc. Calcium Nitrate sales are expected to be 2-4% lower YoY on a European basis. Yara expects YoY improvement in Q4 sales as energy costs are expected to deflate by USD 520 million, although at lower prices, the YoY basis is offsetting the gains.

Indian and Chinese markets are expected to observe bullish sentiments as Europe is expected to increase purchases of Calcium Nitrate from Chinese markets as Norway’s supply lines are expected to be constricted. Asian markets are already observing higher demand for Calcium Nitrate as El Nino weather and lower harvest YoY basis during the summer season are forcing developing countries to procure higher volumes of Calcium Nitrate to secure food production. Prices of Calcium Nitrate in Asian markets are anticipated to improve by 5-6% MoM in November due to weak weather in Europe and China curtailing imports in the coming future to stabilize prices.