US mLLDPE Prices Decline Post-Beryl, European Prices Rise Due to Supply Constraints

This week's global market for Metallocene Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (mLLDPE) showed varied trends, with prices falling in the United States while rising in Europe. In the U.S., the pace of trading slowed slightly as production and logistics stabilized after disruptions caused by Hurricane Beryl, resulting in a decrease in mLLDPE prices. Conversely, the European market experienced a price increase due to supply constraints, despite moderate to low demand from downstream industries such as construction, packaging, and automotive. In Asia, the market remained stable, although mLLDPE prices in China fell slightly by 0.4%, quoted at USD 1294/MT FOB Shanghai. Feedstock Ethylene prices decreased in Europe and Asia due to the depreciation of crude oil prices, but increased in the U.S., affecting regional mLLDPE price dynamics.  The supply issues in the European and Asian mLLDPE markets, along with volatile feedstock prices, underscore the intricate interplay of factors affecting the mLLDPE market this week, which concluded on July 19, 2024.

The USA  mLLDPE market saw a decline in prices after weeks of upward trends as trading activity slowed down following the mid-month normalization of production and logistics after Hurricane Beryl. This week in the mLLDPE market was marked by a quieter period as market participants assessed several significant events, including escalating tensions in the Middle East, volatile monomer markets, decreasing international ocean freight rates over the past week, and a shortage of fresh resin supply due to Beryl's impact. Despite the limited flow of new offers in both domestic and export markets and the continued tightness in material availability, market sentiment became cautious.

In Europe, the rise in mLLDPE prices is primarily due to supply constraints resulting from decreased import volumes and reduced domestic production.  Market sentiment remains sluggish during the slow summer season, with low expectations for a rebound in demand. Additionally, the ongoing Red Sea crisis has intensified supply chain difficulties, forcing vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. This rerouting has caused congestion at alternative routes and transshipment hubs essential for trade with Asia and Europe, according to Maersk.  These disruptions are significantly affecting global supply chains, further worsening the supply issues in the European mLLDPE market.

According to ChemAnalyst, the mLLDPE market is expected to remain strong throughout July, driven by robust trading activities in the USA market.  Nevertheless, a potential easing is expected in August due to reduced demand and sufficient supply levels. While the USA trading is projected to stay strong, mLLDPE prices in Asian and European markets may face pressure from rising freight rates, exacerbated by ongoing supply disturbances.  Demand from downstream industries, such as construction, packaging, and automotive, is expected to remain moderate, though it may soften compared to earlier in the month. This anticipated decline is due to seasonal slowdowns and potential adjustments in production schedules as companies align with changing market conditions.