For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Metallocene Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (mLLDPE) market in North America exhibited a mixed trend, characterized by an initial rise in prices in July, followed by a decline for the remainder of the quarter. Overall, compared to the same period last year, the market experienced a decrease primarily due to moderate to low demand from critical sectors such as construction, automotive, and packaging.
Supply constraints stemming from production disruptions and adverse weather events, including hurricanes, further strained logistics and operations, contributing to price volatility. Additionally, fluctuations in feedstock Ethylene prices, along with variations in upstream Naphtha and Crude oil costs, significantly impacted the market dynamics. The USA witnessed the most pronounced price fluctuations, driven by weakened demand, stable supply levels, competitive pricing from other regions, and lower costs for imported materials. This trend highlighted a stable to negative pricing environment, reflecting the complex interplay of supply and demand factors shaping the mLLDPE market in the region throughout Q3 2024.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, the mLLDPE market in the APAC region experienced a decline in prices due to several influential factors. Significant global port congestion, particularly in major Asian hubs, led to supply chain disruptions and increased freight rates, affecting overall market dynamics. The off-season demand from key sectors, such as construction and packaging, further contributed to a subdued market sentiment. China witnessed the most pronounced price changes, reflecting the overall negative trend across the region. The off-season also led to lower operating rates in downstream industries, compounded by the decline in feedstock Ethylene prices and fluctuations in Crude oil costs. Moreover, Typhoon Yagi caused significant disruptions across Asia, particularly affecting southern China and Vietnam, exacerbating logistical challenges and delaying ocean logistics. Compared to the same period last year, the market saw a decrease, alongside a decline from the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price for mLLDPE-FOB Shanghai in China was USD 1255/MT, underscoring a continued downward trend in pricing. Overall, the pricing environment in Q3 2024 has been predominantly negative, characterized by persistent declines and ongoing challenges in the mLLDPE market.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Metallocene Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (mLLDPE) market in Europe saw a significant rise in prices, influenced by multiple interrelated factors. A key driver was the escalating costs of feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha, which heightened production costs and exerted upward pressure on mLLDPE pricing. Additionally, fluctuations in Crude oil prices added another layer of complexity to market dynamics, affecting overall pricing strategies. Geopolitical tensions in the region further complicated the situation, leading to supply constraints and significant port congestion, which hindered the availability of various mLLDPE grades. This tight supply environment was compounded by a notable decline in the manufacturing sector, where key indicators such as new orders, purchasing activity, and employment rates decreased substantially in September. This consistent increase highlights a bullish outlook, driven by external economic pressures and internal market dynamics, notably the limited supply of mLLDPE that characterized the European market throughout Q3 2024. As these factors continue to change, market participants encountered difficulties stemming from supply chain disruptions and varying raw material costs, which they needed to navigate to remain competitive.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Metallocene Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (mLLDPE) market in North America experienced a notable downward pricing trend, primarily influenced by several key factors. A surplus in supply coupled with subdued demand from critical downstream industries such as construction, packaging, and automotive applied significant downward pressure on prices. This overabundance of inventory, driven by a well-maintained production rate amid adequate feedstock availability, led to aggressive price competition among suppliers.
Geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude oil prices further exacerbated market instability, influencing feedstock Ethylene costs and consequently suppressing mLLDPE prices. Focusing on the USA, which saw the most substantial price shifts, the overall market demonstrated a consistent bearish trend.
Seasonality played a role, with the onset of the summer construction season failing to bolster demand as anticipated. Instead, high inventory levels and logistical challenges, including supply chain disruptions, contributed to the declining price environment. Overall, the pricing environment in Q2 2024 was decidedly negative, dominated by a persistent decline driven by supply-demand imbalances, logistical inefficiencies, and external economic factors.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, mLLDPE pricing in the Asia-Pacific region exhibited a trend of rising prices. This increase was predominantly driven by several critical factors, including elevated upstream crude oil prices and escalating freight rates, despite stable feedstock Ethylene prices. Supply constraints due to ongoing plant maintenance and logistical challenges, such as container shortages and vessel booking difficulties, further exacerbated cost pressures. Additionally, energy costs remained high, contributing to the overall upward pricing momentum. These elements collectively created a challenging market environment, impacting both supply and delivery schedules. Focusing on Japan, which experienced the most significant price fluctuations, the overall trend reflected an increasing sentiment. Seasonality played a role, with demand from the downstream construction and automotive sectors bolstering prices. Despite these opposing forces, the market has witnessed a decline by quarter end. Concluding Q2 2024, the price of mLLDPE-FOB Qingdao in China declined by 1% in June 2024. Overall, the pricing environment in Q2 2024 for mLLDPE in the APAC region, has been characterized by an increasing trend, reflecting the complex interplay of supply constraints, logistical challenges, and sustained demand from key industries.
Europe
Q2 2024 has been a challenging period for mLLDPE in the European region, characterized by consistent downward pressure on prices. The market faced a confluence of factors that led to price depreciation. Subdued demand from downstream industries, such as construction and automotive, played a critical role in the overall price decline. This lackluster demand was further compounded by high inventory levels, resulting in an oversupply situation despite periodic disruptions in logistical channels, such as those stemming from severe weather events in Germany. Additionally, competitive pressures from increased global exports, particularly from the USA and the Middle East, exacerbated the supply glut, while economic uncertainties and rising inflation in the Eurozone curbed consumer confidence and spending. Germany, experiencing the most significant price fluctuations, exemplified these dynamics. The overall trend for mLLDPE in Germany during Q2 2024 has been predominantly negative, with prices exhibiting a marked seasonality downturn. This consistent depreciation underscores a bearish market sentiment driven by external economic pressures and internal market dynamics, suggesting a period of recalibration may be necessary for future stability.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has witnessed a significant increase in mLLDPE prices in the North American region. Several factors have contributed to this upward trend. The market has experienced robust demand from various sectors, including construction and packaging, driving prices higher.
The demand for mLLDPE in the USA remained strong, driven by both domestic and international buyers who have been gradually adjusting to the upward trend in prices. Producers continued to limit the availability of spot prime material, redirecting excess supplies to the robust export market. Trading of polyethylene was brisk, with spot availability tightening and prices steadily increasing, fueled by the unrelenting demand from the export market willing to pay higher prices for resin while absorbing surplus supplies.
The mLLDPE market in the USA appears poised for a rally, with international resin prices on the rise, supported by escalating overseas freight costs. US producers not only benefit from a feedstock cost advantage but also enjoy favorable geographic positioning, resulting in cheaper and quicker freight options when shipping resin to Europe and the East Coast of Latin America. These regions are particularly affected by logistics constraints in the Red Sea and Panama Canal, enhancing the competitiveness of US resin in these markets.
APAC
mLLDPE pricing in the APAC region for Q1 2024 has remained stable, with no significant fluctuations observed across the market. Several factors have influenced market prices during this quarter. The stability in prices can be attributed to a balanced interplay between supply and demand forces. Despite challenges such as limited polyethylene (PE) offers from the Middle East and destocking pressures faced by petrochemical enterprises, traders have successfully maintained price stability. Demand from downstream sectors such as construction and packaging has remained steady, showing no significant rise compared to previous weeks. In China, the market has seen the maximum price changes compared to other countries in the APAC region. Throughout the quarter, mLLDPE prices in China have remained relatively constant, with a 2% increase compared to the same quarter last year. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at 0%. The first half of the quarter saw a 1% increase in prices compared to the second half. The latest quarter-ending price for mLLDPE in China was USD 1290/MT FOB Qingdao. Overall, the pricing environment for mLLDPE in the APAC region during Q1 2024 has been stable, with prices showing minimal fluctuations. This stability can be attributed to consistent demand from downstream sectors and a balanced supply-demand dynamic.
Europe
The Metallocene Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (mLLDPE) market in Europe during Q1 2024 has witnessed increasing prices and stabilized by quarter end, reflecting a positive pricing environment. Several factors have influenced market prices, including the supply-demand dynamics, economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions. Despite these challenges, the mLLDPE market in Europe has shown resilience. In the mLLDPE prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with an overall upward trend, which can be primarily attributed to challenges faced by European traders, exacerbated by disruptions in the Red Sea. These disruptions not only elevate shipping costs but also introduce delays, leading to a shortage of shipping capacity as vessels endure prolonged stays at sea. The increasing container rates, combined with shipping companies' reluctance to guarantee space, further compounds logistical hurdles. Despite this, demand from the downstream construction industry has remained sluggish due to the persistently gloomy construction sector. Further, the repercussions of the logistics crisis extend beyond immediate challenges, dampening prospects for recovery in 2024. Furthermore, high feedstock Ethylene costs and a surge in upstream Naphtha prices during this period have supported the trajectory of mLLDPE prices.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the final quarter of 2023, mLLDPE prices in North America underwent fluctuations, starting with an upswing in October but ending with a depreciation by the conclusion of the quarter.
The initial October price surge was propelled by escalating Ethylene prices and robust demand from the construction, packaging, and automotive sectors. However, November and December witnessed a decline in mLLDPE prices in North America due to diminishing Naphtha and Crude oil prices, coupled with subdued global market demand.
Despite maintaining stability in the domestic market, there was a reduction in export demand for mLLDPE from Asian traders, while inquiries from Latin America and Europe continued at reduced levels. In November, export offers began to emerge, prompting certain producers to adjust their prices downward to align with the softer international sentiment influenced by the decline in Crude Oil prices. Additionally, there were observed supply disruptions as low water levels in the Panama Canal imposed restrictions on the number of ships permitted to cross.
APAC
During Q4 of 2023, the mLLDPE market in the Asian region experienced a downward trajectory. However, the Indian market displayed a contrasting trend, rebounding by the quarter's end due to robust demand. The overall market dynamics were influenced by international Crude oil prices and weakening support for the product on the cost side. The supply of mLLDPE remained moderate, while demand fluctuated between moderate to low, creating a subdued transaction atmosphere. The decreasing price of feedstock Ethylene played a role in the diminishing trend and alleviated cost pressures on the product. Furthermore, the Chinese market, being a significant consumer, faced lackluster demand from downstream sectors such as construction and packaging. This prompted market participants to make adjustments to their prices in response to prevailing market conditions. In contrast, the Indian market exhibited an opposing trend, experiencing an upward trajectory by the end of the year. The 3% increase in mLLDPE CFR JNPT prices was primarily driven by heightened demand in the domestic market and increased freight rates. Meanwhile, the price of mLLDPE FOB Shanghai in China declined by 3% in October and stabilized by the conclusion of the quarter.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter, the European mLLDPE market faced a challenging demand scenario, briefly witnessing an increase in October followed by a decline for the rest of the quarter. The initial uptick in October was noted in the European PE market, attributed to limited imports from Asia and the Middle East. Sources within the market indicate that European PE producers have grappled with significant cost pressures over an extended period, compounded by weak demand fundamentals that have adversely affected their profitability. As November and December unfolded, the European market experienced a decline in mLLDPE prices, primarily influenced by subdued demand in downstream industries such as packaging and construction. The construction sector in the Eurozone contracted overall, particularly in France and Germany, where the latter witnessed its most substantial output drop in over three and a half years. The housing sector continued to be the underperforming sub-sector for the fifteenth consecutive month in November, marked by diminishing new orders due to weak demand conditions, leading to job cuts and a negative outlook for future output. Input costs saw an accelerated increase, prompting construction companies to implement cost-cutting measures in response to the challenging market conditions.
