mLLDPE Prices Decline in Europe and US, Hold Steady in Asia Amid Weak Demand

In the second half of October 2024, the global mLLDPE market showed varied trends, with stability in the Asian market while prices in Europe and the USA experienced a downward shift. This divergence was largely driven by weak demand across key downstream sectors, including the automotive, construction, and packaging industries. Further, mLLDPE pricing across regions was influenced by fluctuating feedstock costs, particularly for Ethylene and upstream Naphtha. Crude oil prices also contributed to the market's dynamics, as concerns over potential Middle East supply disruptions eased and were further tempered by China’s sharp industrial profit contraction in September. Furthermore, a notable drop in freight rates added pressure, as importers advanced peak season shipments to avoid potential disruptions from dock worker strikes on the US East Coast and Gulf ports. As a result, mLLDPE prices in China held steady, quoted at USD 1264/MT FOB Shanghai on November 1, 2024.

The European and US mLLDPE markets experienced continued price declines during this period due to a convergence of economic, geopolitical, and seasonal factors. In Europe, the market faced persistent macroeconomic challenges and heightened geopolitical tensions, suppressing demand and pushing mLLDPE prices downward. The drop in Ethylene feedstock costs further eased production expenses, while Asia–European ocean freight rates fell by 30% from September’s end, driven by peak-season Red Sea diversions that triggered an early lull ahead of the Lunar New Year. This shift reduced import demand, applying additional downward pressure on mLLDPE costs. Similarly, in the US, softened demand across downstream sectors contributed to bearish market sentiment, with moderate Ethylene prices supporting this trend. Container shipping rates from East Asia and China to the US also declined as importers expedited shipments to avoid potential disruptions from dock worker strikes on the East Coast and Gulf ports. As the US market enters a seasonally quiet period between the post-Christmas and Lunar New Year, shipping rates are expected to stay low, maintaining downward pressure on mLLDPE prices across the region.

Meanwhile, the Asian mLLDPE price trajectory demonstrated stability, with demand holding steady at moderate to low levels, supported by sufficient supply across the region. In particular, demand from China’s agricultural film sector remained firm, sustaining overall consumption levels. The steady availability of mLLDPE in the regional market enabled traders to maintain price levels, with no significant disruptions in supply chains or feedstock availability. This balance between demand and supply allowed prices to remain stable throughout the period.

According to ChemAnalyst, mLLDPE prices are projected to decline in November, driven by subdued winter demand and the conclusion of peak shipment activity across global markets. This anticipated downward trend is likely to be compounded by fluctuations in feedstock Ethylene and upstream Crude oil prices, impacting overall production costs. While rising geopolitical tensions in the West Asian region could create some market volatility, eased freight rates are expected to further influence mLLDPE pricing, potentially lowering costs as shipping expenses decrease and importers adjust to softened demand conditions.