Global Ammonium Nitrate Market Prevails Pessimistic Trend Throughout June 2024

The global Ammonium Nitrate market experienced bearish sentiments throughout the June 2024. This price dip can be attributed to a combination of factors. Firstly, there was a decline in the price of essential feedstock materials, including ammonia and nitric acid. This reduction in raw material (ammonia and nitric acid) costs contributed significantly to the overall decrease in Ammonium Nitrate prices. Secondly, the market saw a sufficient availability of Ammonium Nitrate ensuring that there was no urgency among buyers to secure stock at higher prices, thus maintaining a bearish trend. Further dwindling demand from the downstream fertilizer market also played a crucial role in the price decline.

The North American Ammonium Nitrate market continued to decline during June 2024. Concurrently, there was a surplus of domestically produced Ammonium Nitrate in the Indian market. Insights from various market participants indicate that while the manufacturing activities in the U.S contracted in June 2024, output in the chemicals sector was robust. Despite this demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained restricted from both international and domestic market. In recent weeks, an active weather pattern has delivered heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Western Corn Belt, creating favorable conditions for corn planting. This weather pattern marked a stark contrast to the adverse conditions faced in June of the previous year. The Drought Monitor report for June 2024 showed no areas of drought in southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa, further indicating improved agricultural conditions in the region. Despite these favorable agricultural conditions, farmers in the country have surprisingly adopted a wait-and-see approach to securing fertilizers, including Ammonium Nitrate, as they anticipate further price declines.

Similarly, the Asian market, particularly the Indian market, exhibited notable dynamics in the fertilizer sector. Insights gathered from various market participants indicate a surplus of fertilizer inventories, including Ammonium Nitrate. The Indian Meteorological Department’s forecast of a good monsoon, following below-average rainfall in the previous fiscal year, initially appeared to be a positive indicator for fertilizer sales. A good monsoon typically enhances agricultural productivity, thereby increasing the demand for Ammonium Nitrate. However, it is still early in the monsoon season, and the ultimate impact on fertilizer demand remains uncertain. Any delays in the onset of the monsoon or suboptimal rainfall could negatively impact agricultural output and, consequently, the demand for Ammonium Nitrate. Therefore, while the forecast holds promise, market participants remain cautiously optimistic, recognizing the potential risks associated with the monsoon's unpredictability.