The North American and European Ammonium Nitrate markets exhibited divergent trends during the first half of October 2024. In Europe, the market experienced bullish sentiments, in contrast to North America, where Ammonium Nitrate continued to face bearish conditions, largely reflecting the muted demand from the key fertilizer sector, a pattern consistent with the previous month. Despite these differing market dynamics, both regions witnessed a slight shortage of Ammonium Nitrate, indicating supply-side constraints amidst varying demand scenarios.

In the European region, Ammonium Nitrate prices witnessed a significant surge during the first half of October 2024, driven by robust demand across the distribution chain, particularly from agricultural sectors in the eastern and northern parts of the continent. This heightened demand, primarily from farmers preparing for seasonal requirements, exerted considerable pressure on supply. Additionally, the rise in prices for key feedstock, Ammonia, and upstream Natural Gas, further contributed to the escalation. With Natural Gas prices climbing due to geopolitical factors and supply disruptions, production costs for Ammonia, the essential feedstock for Ammonium Nitrate also increased. As manufacturers responded with higher production rates to meet the growing demand, the cumulative effect was an upward pressure on Ammonium Nitrate prices across the region.

In contrast, the North American Ammonium Nitrate market experienced a decline, primarily due to the persistent disruption caused by hurricanes, which have severely impacted agricultural operations. Tropical Storm Milton, following a similar pattern to Hurricane Francine, has hindered crop progress and affected both fertilizer production and retail distribution. As per data from USDA, only 47% of the corn crop has been harvested, while just 1% of soybeans have been collected in North Carolina, highlighting the extent of these disruptions. This has led traders to adopt a cautious approach to securing fertilizer including Ammonium Nitrate, fearing additional crop damage and further delays in agricultural activity.

Despite these challenges, a slight shortage of Ammonium Nitrate was still observed in the market, as production capabilities were further hampered by the storms, particularly in the southeastern United States. Areas such as northern Georgia and the southern Appalachians experienced significant impacts, with Tampa a key hub for fertilizer production, logistics, storage, at risk of substantial damage. However, concerns were alleviated when the storm weakened before landfall, sparing the region from a direct hit. Nutrien, a major U.S. producer of Ammonium Nitrate with a production capacity of 64,167 TPM, declared force majeure on September 10th due to the hurricane. Although the company resumed production activities within a week, the overall impact on Ammonium Nitrate prices remained mitigated, with prices declining despite the temporary disruptions.

According to ChemAnalyst, the price of Ammonium Nitrate is anticipated to rise in the global market due to the increasing fertilizer demand for the upcoming winter planting season.