The global Ammonium Nitrate remained highly volatile throughout March 2025, with prices varying across the globe. This price volatility is attributed to various factors currently impacting the Ammonium Nitrate market, Varying prices of major feedstocks, most notably Ammonia and Nitric Acid, have put pressure on the cost side for manufacturers. Also, the European Union's imposition of anti-dumping duties on Russian-origin Ammonium Nitrate has interfered with customary trade patterns, further leading to regional supply imbalances. Geopolitical tensions in major exports and transit areas have also increased uncertainties, driving the volatile pricing trends in the global Ammonium Nitrate market.

In the European region, the prices of Ammonium Nitrate have displayed varied pricing patterns.  The prices increased by a slight margin in the United Kingdom however settled at a downward side at the Russian market. The European Union (EU) was considering imposing tariffs on Russian nitrogen fertilizers, including ammonium nitrate, to reduce dependence on Russian imports and protect food security. This has led to a surplus availability of domestically produced material in the Russian market supporting the current price decline. While, in the United Kingdom, the prices experienced a slight uptick. This was primarily driven by a shortage of essential raw material Ammonia in the regional market. The shutdown of one of the major Ammonia producing plants in the northwest European region SKW Piesteritz has hampered production activities for various derivatives including Ammonium Nitrate. However, the plant resumed operations in mid-March which may ease the current supply constraints soon.

Meanwhile, in the Chinese market, Ammonium Nitrate experienced a slight uptick during March 2025, this pricing movement was largely driven by heightened demand from the downstream fertilizer sector. With the upcoming planting season approaching, domestic consumers have begun proactive stockpiling of fertilizers, including ammonium sulphate, to ensure adequate availability during peak agricultural activity. Further, an increase in the cultivated area this year has further boosted fertilizer consumption requirements across the agricultural sector.

Meanwhile, On the supply side, inventories of domestically produced Ammonium Nitrate remained slightly constrained. A major factor behind this supply constrained was the maintenance shutdown undertaken by Jianfeng Group, a major producer with an active production capacity of 11,291 tonnes per month. The facility went offline from March 1, 2025, and resumed operations on March 10, 2025. This temporary disruption has tightened supply in the short term, contributing to a restrained market environment.

According to ChemAnalyst, the price of Ammonium Nitrate is expected to keep fluctuating in the forthcoming coming months. Anticipated revival in demand for the Ammonium Nitrate from the prominent end-user fertilizer market may lead to price surge however, ongoing geopolitical tensions may shape the future otherwise. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions may continue to pose uncertainty in the market.