For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Ammonium Nitrate market demonstrated fluctuating price trends during Q4 2024, reflecting stability in October and November before experiencing a marginal surge in December. The price remained stagnant initially, despite fluctuating feedstock costs for Ammonia, Nitric Acid and Ammonia. Subdued seasonal demand from the fertilizer sector contributed to the lack of price movement, with agricultural activities declining as the planting season faded.
However, demand for industrial applications, particularly in mining and explosives, remained steady, supporting market resilience. On the supply side, logistical challenges such as adverse weather, hurricanes, and low Mississippi River water levels constrained production and imports. Persistent bottlenecks, including a labor strike in Canada, further limited supply availability, though effective inventory management mitigated severe shortages.
By December, slight supply tightness coupled with a modest rise in feedstock prices led to a gradual price increase for Ammonium Nitrate. Despite consistent industrial demand, purchasing activity for fertilizers remained cautious, with buyers delaying significant commitments in anticipation of more favorable pricing during winter fill and spring prepay periods. Overall, Q4 showcased a balanced interplay of demand and supply, with steady industrial consumption offsetting seasonal agricultural weakness and supply chain constraints.
Asia- Pacific
The Asia-Pacific Ammonium Nitrate market showed mixed trends during the review period, shaped by regional supply-demand dynamics, logistical hurdles, and external influences. In Indonesia and China, prices declined despite rising feedstock Ammonia cost, as stable domestic production and ample inventories ensured market balance. Subdued export demand from key markets, including the Philippines and New Zealand, impacted by adverse weather disrupting agricultural activities, further pressured prices. Further, Logistical challenges in China, including port congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, alongside heavy rainfall, caused delays in imports and strained regional supply chains. Vessel bunching and extended waiting times exacerbated supply tightness, influencing market dynamics. Excessive rainfall in southern Asia-Pacific raised concerns over crop damage, particularly for sugarcane, oil palm, and fruit crops, while central regions remained stable for paddy irrigation. Manufacturers across the region maintained consistent production rates, effectively managing rising feedstock costs. However, in the Indian market a slight uptick in price was observed owing to restocking of fertilizer supplies amidst the forthcoming Rabi planting season.
Europe
European Ammonium Nitrate prices have declined recently due to subdued demand from key sectors like agriculture, compounded by oversupply conditions and logistical challenges. Despite rising Ammonia feedstock costs and supply disruptions such as the shutdown of a Norwegian gas platform, production has been curtailed, but ample inventories continue to exert downward price pressure. In the UK, a significant price surge occurred in December 2024, driven by supply chain disruptions and delays in exports from key European suppliers, while buyer interest remained inconsistent due to fluctuating weather conditions. Demand in both Europe and the UK has been weak, with cautious purchasing behavior from the agricultural sector, exacerbated by uncertainties around the upcoming winter planting season and ongoing logistical issues, such as port congestion. These dynamics highlight a market under strain, where supply outpaces demand, and economic factors, including high input costs and weather unpredictability, shape future price trends.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American Ammonium Nitrate market exhibited fluctuating price trends throughout Q3 2024, though it predominantly remained on the lower end. In the early part of the quarter, prices saw a significant decline, primarily driven by subdued demand from the key downstream fertilizer sector
Despite attempts by traders to stimulate prices in anticipation of heightened demand ahead of the upcoming planting season, these efforts did not fully materialize. The region was severely impacted by adverse weather conditions, including hurricanes, heavy rainfall, and storms, which disrupted agricultural cycles and restrained demand for Ammonium Nitrate fertilizers. Although prices experienced a modest recovery in August 2024, this was largely attributed to supply shortages rather than a resurgence in demand. The hurricanes caused significant production disruptions, limiting the availability of Ammonium Nitrate in the market. This supply-side constraint provided some upward pressure on prices.
However, by the latter part of the quarter, prices began to stabilize as the market adjusted to the production setbacks, and demand remained relatively weak in the face of ongoing weather-related challenges. As per ChemAnalyst, the later quarter-ending price of Ammonium Nitrate DEL New York stood at USD 325/MT.
APAC
The Asian Ammonium Nitrate market exhibited a mixed trend during the third quarter of 2024. Prices declined during the initial and final month of the quarter, with China being the most significantly affected. Persistent port congestion within the region led to inventory buildups, as vessels faced extended waiting times—up to four days at Shanghai, two days at Qingdao, and three days at Port Klang. This ship bunching, a lingering effect of earlier port disruptions, has severely impacted the supply chain, contributing to the accumulation of stocks. Combined with subdued demand due to the end of planting season activities, these factors drove prices down. However, in August 2023, prices surged due to adverse weather conditions that disrupted logistics and transportation networks. Typhoon struck China’s Hainan province, bringing torrential rains and winds. The typhoon caused widespread damage, resulting in extensive power outages and significant disruptions to daily life. These conditions further strained transportation infrastructure and power supplies, exacerbating production challenges for key industrial sectors, including Ammonium Nitrate manufacturing. Additionally, preparations for winter planting began to pick up, boosting demand. As per Chemanalyst, the latest quarter ending price of Ammonium Nitrate Spot Ex-Qingdao was hovering at USD 430/MT.
Europe
During Q3, the European Ammonium Nitrate market experienced a significant surge, particularly in Russia, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. This increase in prices was mainly attributed to a shortage of raw materials in the European market. The shortage stemmed from Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, where the critical Sudzha gas transit station is located. Disruption at this key transit point created a ripple effect, impacting European gas supplies and further intensifying the regional shortage of upstream Natural Gas and feedstock Ammonia. The severe scarcity of this essential raw material directly affected Ammonium Nitrate production, resulting in reduced output levels and contributing to the rise in Ammonium Nitrate prices. Demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained moderate, driven by domestic requirements and orders from European importers. However, this demand was largely concentrated among smaller buyers within the region, reflecting a cautious market outlook. Additionally, the market faced further challenges due to fluctuating weather conditions, which impacted demand from the major downstream fertilizer sector. These unpredictable weather patterns made it difficult for farmers to forecast their fertilizer needs, creating a more volatile demand environment. As per ChemAnalyst, the later quarter ending price of Ammonium Nitrate FOB Novorossiysk stood at USD 245/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Ammonium Nitrate market experienced a persistent downward trend in pricing, driven by a confluence of several significant factors. The principal reasons include reduced demand from key agricultural sectors, influenced by extreme weather conditions disrupting planting activities, and a decline in the price of essential feedstocks like Ammonia and Nitric Acid. These elements collectively exerted downward pressure on production costs, leading to lower market prices for Ammonium Nitrate.
Despite the ongoing planting season, demand remained subdued due to adverse weather patterns, including extreme heat waves, which impeded normal agricultural activities. Additionally, notable disruptions such as the force majeure declared by CF Industries Holding Inc. in Mississippi due to flooding, and the storm-induced shutdown at LSB Industries Inc. in Arkansas, exacerbated supply chain challenges, even though their impacts were short-term.
Seasonality played a crucial role, with the second half of the quarter reflecting an 18% price drop compared to the first half. The overall trend observed was a 30% decline from the previous quarter. These dynamics underscored a bearish market sentiment, with the latest quarter-ending price recorded at USD 375/MT of Ammonium Nitrate DEL New York. Consequently, the Q2 2024 pricing landscape for Ammonium Nitrate in North America, particularly the USA, has been decidedly negative, marked by ample supply, muted demand, and adverse climatic disruptions.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, the Ammonium Nitrate market across the APAC region experienced a notable decline in prices, driven by several critical factors. The primary reasons for this downturn included an oversupply of Ammonium Nitrate amid stable demand and a lack of new bids or inquiries from the international market, which led to a surplus that exerted significant downward pressure on prices. Focusing on China, where the most pronounced price changes occurred, the market was characterized by a consistent bearish sentiment. Despite the seasonal planting activities, the demand remained subdued, further exacerbating the price decline. The overall trend showed a correlation between oversupply and decreasing prices, with price reductions intensifying as market participants awaited further drops. The quarter's prices decreased by 11% from the previous quarter, reflecting a strong negative sentiment. A comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed an 8% decrease, underscoring the persistent downward trend. Concluding the analysis, the latest quarter-ending price for Ammonium Nitrate Spot Ex-Shandong in China stood at USD 466/MT.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2024, the Ammonium Nitrate market experienced mixed sentiments. The prices declined during the initial two months of the quarter however, increased during the final month of the quarter Unfavorable weather conditions, including harsh windstorms and floods, significantly dampened agricultural demand, particularly in the fertilizer sector. This decline in demand was compounded by an oversupply of Ammonium Nitrate, driven by ample inventories and smooth cargo inflows despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants reported a notable decline in fertilizer sales across Europe, a major factor driving this stagnancy. The adverse weather conditions disrupted agricultural activities, further reducing the need for fertilizers. However, as the quarter approached to its end the prices surged by USD 20/MT from the previous month owing to modest resurgence in demand. The international market saw a modest number of enquiries, influenced by China's absence from exports during this period. In the European Union, excessive rainfall has adversely affected crop growth and impeded field operations, particularly in Austria, France, Italy, and the Netherlands. This has led to reduced potential yields. Overall, these improved weather conditions across Europe and neighbouring regions have contributed to fluctuating demand for Ammonium Nitrate, as agricultural activities face challenges and uncertainties related to weather patterns and regional crop performances.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the Ammonium Nitrate market in the North American region witnessed a notable decline, primarily attributed to the diminishing prices of crucial raw materials such as Ammonia and Natural Gas. This trend was further exacerbated by the milder winter weather conditions, which resulted in reduced production rates, consequently leading to a surplus of Ammonium Nitrate within the market.
Despite the ongoing corn and soybean planting seasons in Brazil, demand from this significant importing nation remained subdued due to the traditional festivities associated with Carnival, resulting in a temporary deceleration of agricultural activities. Conversely, a modest increase in demand was noted from the importing Asian market however it did not have any significant effect on Ammonium Nitrate price. In addition to it the supply of Ammonium Nitrate in the region was characterized as moderate to high, with substantial stocks readily available to cater to the requirements of end-users, persistent disruptions in the supply chain were evident due to delayed shipments to the Asian market. Meanwhile, domestic demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained subdued as the peak planting season concluded, compounded by adverse weather conditions impeding crop cultivation. Notably, no instances of plant shutdowns were reported during this period. Overall, the price of Ammonium Nitrate in the North American region experienced a decline compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. As of the final month of the quarter, the price for Ammonium Nitrate DEL New York in the USA stood at USD 510 per metric ton.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Ammonium Nitrate in the APAC region were influenced by a range of factors, creating a nuanced market environment. Notably, the Chinese market experienced a marginal 1% increase in prices during the initial month, driven by a confluence of factors such as supply shortages, trade uncertainties, and elevated shipping costs attributable to geopolitical disruptions. Challenges like factory equipment malfunctions and partial sales stoppages contributed to material shortages within China, further fuelling price escalation. Moreover, global trade uncertainties and disruptions in shipping routes due to rebel attacks in the Red Sea compounded pricing pressures. However, as the quarter progressed, prices began to decline. By the final month of the quarter, the price of Ammonium Nitrate FOB Qingdao in China reached USD 520 per metric ton. In February 2024, domestic demand in China remained subdued due to Lunar New Year celebrations, although it gradually rebounded in anticipation of the upcoming planting season. Nevertheless, adverse weather conditions, including rain showers and snow, dampened consumer enthusiasm. Similarly, in the western market, demand remained limited despite the planting season, partly due to unfavourable weather conditions linked to the residual effects of the El Niño phenomenon.
Europe
The European Ammonium Nitrate market faced a challenging first quarter in 2024, characterized by a substantial 19.6% decline in prices in Russia. This decline was primarily attributed to reduced demand from the downstream fertilizer sector, compounded by an oversupply of Ammonium Nitrate and muted overall demand. Additionally, market sentiments were dampened by trade uncertainties and unfavourable weather conditions, particularly in Russia. The weather across Europe varied significantly during the quarter, with cold spells in the northern regions, excessive rainfall in central areas, and dryness in the Mediterranean. These weather patterns influenced agricultural activities and fertilizer demand, further contributing to the subdued market conditions. Despite these challenges, the temporary maintenance shutdown of the Novomoskovskiy Azot (Eurochem Group) plant had minimal impact on prices. However, ongoing farmers' protests, fuelled by rising energy prices, played a significant role in reducing farmers' buying enthusiasm. These protests added further pressure on the already subdued demand in the fertilizer sector. In response to the inventory pressures faced by traders, various strategies were employed, including adjustments to fertilizer prices, including Ammonium Nitrate. These efforts aimed to alleviate the impact of declining demand and lower production rates on market dynamics. However, despite these measures, prices continued to decline throughout the quarter.
