For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American Ammonium Nitrate market exhibited fluctuating price trends throughout Q3 2024, though it predominantly remained on the lower end. In the early part of the quarter, prices saw a significant decline, primarily driven by subdued demand from the key downstream fertilizer sector
Despite attempts by traders to stimulate prices in anticipation of heightened demand ahead of the upcoming planting season, these efforts did not fully materialize. The region was severely impacted by adverse weather conditions, including hurricanes, heavy rainfall, and storms, which disrupted agricultural cycles and restrained demand for Ammonium Nitrate fertilizers. Although prices experienced a modest recovery in August 2024, this was largely attributed to supply shortages rather than a resurgence in demand. The hurricanes caused significant production disruptions, limiting the availability of Ammonium Nitrate in the market. This supply-side constraint provided some upward pressure on prices.
However, by the latter part of the quarter, prices began to stabilize as the market adjusted to the production setbacks, and demand remained relatively weak in the face of ongoing weather-related challenges. As per ChemAnalyst, the later quarter-ending price of Ammonium Nitrate DEL New York stood at USD 325/MT.
APAC
The Asian Ammonium Nitrate market exhibited a mixed trend during the third quarter of 2024. Prices declined during the initial and final month of the quarter, with China being the most significantly affected. Persistent port congestion within the region led to inventory buildups, as vessels faced extended waiting times—up to four days at Shanghai, two days at Qingdao, and three days at Port Klang. This ship bunching, a lingering effect of earlier port disruptions, has severely impacted the supply chain, contributing to the accumulation of stocks. Combined with subdued demand due to the end of planting season activities, these factors drove prices down. However, in August 2023, prices surged due to adverse weather conditions that disrupted logistics and transportation networks. Typhoon struck China’s Hainan province, bringing torrential rains and winds. The typhoon caused widespread damage, resulting in extensive power outages and significant disruptions to daily life. These conditions further strained transportation infrastructure and power supplies, exacerbating production challenges for key industrial sectors, including Ammonium Nitrate manufacturing. Additionally, preparations for winter planting began to pick up, boosting demand. As per Chemanalyst, the latest quarter ending price of Ammonium Nitrate Spot Ex-Qingdao was hovering at USD 430/MT.
Europe
During Q3, the European Ammonium Nitrate market experienced a significant surge, particularly in Russia, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. This increase in prices was mainly attributed to a shortage of raw materials in the European market. The shortage stemmed from Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, where the critical Sudzha gas transit station is located. Disruption at this key transit point created a ripple effect, impacting European gas supplies and further intensifying the regional shortage of upstream Natural Gas and feedstock Ammonia. The severe scarcity of this essential raw material directly affected Ammonium Nitrate production, resulting in reduced output levels and contributing to the rise in Ammonium Nitrate prices. Demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained moderate, driven by domestic requirements and orders from European importers. However, this demand was largely concentrated among smaller buyers within the region, reflecting a cautious market outlook. Additionally, the market faced further challenges due to fluctuating weather conditions, which impacted demand from the major downstream fertilizer sector. These unpredictable weather patterns made it difficult for farmers to forecast their fertilizer needs, creating a more volatile demand environment. As per ChemAnalyst, the later quarter ending price of Ammonium Nitrate FOB Novorossiysk stood at USD 245/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Ammonium Nitrate market experienced a persistent downward trend in pricing, driven by a confluence of several significant factors. The principal reasons include reduced demand from key agricultural sectors, influenced by extreme weather conditions disrupting planting activities, and a decline in the price of essential feedstocks like Ammonia and Nitric Acid. These elements collectively exerted downward pressure on production costs, leading to lower market prices for Ammonium Nitrate.
Despite the ongoing planting season, demand remained subdued due to adverse weather patterns, including extreme heat waves, which impeded normal agricultural activities. Additionally, notable disruptions such as the force majeure declared by CF Industries Holding Inc. in Mississippi due to flooding, and the storm-induced shutdown at LSB Industries Inc. in Arkansas, exacerbated supply chain challenges, even though their impacts were short-term.
Seasonality played a crucial role, with the second half of the quarter reflecting an 18% price drop compared to the first half. The overall trend observed was a 30% decline from the previous quarter. These dynamics underscored a bearish market sentiment, with the latest quarter-ending price recorded at USD 375/MT of Ammonium Nitrate DEL New York. Consequently, the Q2 2024 pricing landscape for Ammonium Nitrate in North America, particularly the USA, has been decidedly negative, marked by ample supply, muted demand, and adverse climatic disruptions.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, the Ammonium Nitrate market across the APAC region experienced a notable decline in prices, driven by several critical factors. The primary reasons for this downturn included an oversupply of Ammonium Nitrate amid stable demand and a lack of new bids or inquiries from the international market, which led to a surplus that exerted significant downward pressure on prices. Focusing on China, where the most pronounced price changes occurred, the market was characterized by a consistent bearish sentiment. Despite the seasonal planting activities, the demand remained subdued, further exacerbating the price decline. The overall trend showed a correlation between oversupply and decreasing prices, with price reductions intensifying as market participants awaited further drops. The quarter's prices decreased by 11% from the previous quarter, reflecting a strong negative sentiment. A comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed an 8% decrease, underscoring the persistent downward trend. Concluding the analysis, the latest quarter-ending price for Ammonium Nitrate Spot Ex-Shandong in China stood at USD 466/MT.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2024, the Ammonium Nitrate market experienced mixed sentiments. The prices declined during the initial two months of the quarter however, increased during the final month of the quarter Unfavorable weather conditions, including harsh windstorms and floods, significantly dampened agricultural demand, particularly in the fertilizer sector. This decline in demand was compounded by an oversupply of Ammonium Nitrate, driven by ample inventories and smooth cargo inflows despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants reported a notable decline in fertilizer sales across Europe, a major factor driving this stagnancy. The adverse weather conditions disrupted agricultural activities, further reducing the need for fertilizers. However, as the quarter approached to its end the prices surged by USD 20/MT from the previous month owing to modest resurgence in demand. The international market saw a modest number of enquiries, influenced by China's absence from exports during this period. In the European Union, excessive rainfall has adversely affected crop growth and impeded field operations, particularly in Austria, France, Italy, and the Netherlands. This has led to reduced potential yields. Overall, these improved weather conditions across Europe and neighbouring regions have contributed to fluctuating demand for Ammonium Nitrate, as agricultural activities face challenges and uncertainties related to weather patterns and regional crop performances.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the Ammonium Nitrate market in the North American region witnessed a notable decline, primarily attributed to the diminishing prices of crucial raw materials such as Ammonia and Natural Gas. This trend was further exacerbated by the milder winter weather conditions, which resulted in reduced production rates, consequently leading to a surplus of Ammonium Nitrate within the market.
Despite the ongoing corn and soybean planting seasons in Brazil, demand from this significant importing nation remained subdued due to the traditional festivities associated with Carnival, resulting in a temporary deceleration of agricultural activities. Conversely, a modest increase in demand was noted from the importing Asian market however it did not have any significant effect on Ammonium Nitrate price. In addition to it the supply of Ammonium Nitrate in the region was characterized as moderate to high, with substantial stocks readily available to cater to the requirements of end-users, persistent disruptions in the supply chain were evident due to delayed shipments to the Asian market. Meanwhile, domestic demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained subdued as the peak planting season concluded, compounded by adverse weather conditions impeding crop cultivation. Notably, no instances of plant shutdowns were reported during this period. Overall, the price of Ammonium Nitrate in the North American region experienced a decline compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. As of the final month of the quarter, the price for Ammonium Nitrate DEL New York in the USA stood at USD 510 per metric ton.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Ammonium Nitrate in the APAC region were influenced by a range of factors, creating a nuanced market environment. Notably, the Chinese market experienced a marginal 1% increase in prices during the initial month, driven by a confluence of factors such as supply shortages, trade uncertainties, and elevated shipping costs attributable to geopolitical disruptions. Challenges like factory equipment malfunctions and partial sales stoppages contributed to material shortages within China, further fuelling price escalation. Moreover, global trade uncertainties and disruptions in shipping routes due to rebel attacks in the Red Sea compounded pricing pressures. However, as the quarter progressed, prices began to decline. By the final month of the quarter, the price of Ammonium Nitrate FOB Qingdao in China reached USD 520 per metric ton. In February 2024, domestic demand in China remained subdued due to Lunar New Year celebrations, although it gradually rebounded in anticipation of the upcoming planting season. Nevertheless, adverse weather conditions, including rain showers and snow, dampened consumer enthusiasm. Similarly, in the western market, demand remained limited despite the planting season, partly due to unfavourable weather conditions linked to the residual effects of the El Niño phenomenon.
Europe
The European Ammonium Nitrate market faced a challenging first quarter in 2024, characterized by a substantial 19.6% decline in prices in Russia. This decline was primarily attributed to reduced demand from the downstream fertilizer sector, compounded by an oversupply of Ammonium Nitrate and muted overall demand. Additionally, market sentiments were dampened by trade uncertainties and unfavourable weather conditions, particularly in Russia. The weather across Europe varied significantly during the quarter, with cold spells in the northern regions, excessive rainfall in central areas, and dryness in the Mediterranean. These weather patterns influenced agricultural activities and fertilizer demand, further contributing to the subdued market conditions. Despite these challenges, the temporary maintenance shutdown of the Novomoskovskiy Azot (Eurochem Group) plant had minimal impact on prices. However, ongoing farmers' protests, fuelled by rising energy prices, played a significant role in reducing farmers' buying enthusiasm. These protests added further pressure on the already subdued demand in the fertilizer sector. In response to the inventory pressures faced by traders, various strategies were employed, including adjustments to fertilizer prices, including Ammonium Nitrate. These efforts aimed to alleviate the impact of declining demand and lower production rates on market dynamics. However, despite these measures, prices continued to decline throughout the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American Ammonium Nitrate market region prevailed mixed sentiments throughout the Q4 of 2023. The prices increased significantly in the first month of the fourth Quarter. The market was primarily impacted by the following factors. Firstly, increase in the price of essential feedstock Ammonia led to an increase in the production cost of Ammonium Nitrate.
Secondly, the demand for Ammonia and its derivatives including Ammonium Nitrate remained robust in the domestic market, particularly in anticipation of the forthcoming winter planting season, exerting upward pressure on prices. Lastly, the low availability of material within the regional market led to an increased price of ammonia within the country. Further, as the Chinese government curtail its fertilizers exports international consumers particularly Indian players were active in the North American market.
However, in November the market unfolded bearish sentiments and remained stagnant in December. This price dip is attributed to surplus availability of material in the market coupled with lacklustre demand. Persistent challenges at the Panama Canal, a critical global trade route originating in the USA, contributed to this scenario. Further, some shipping companies are opting to bypass the Suez Canal due to concerns about potential rebel attacks, choosing alternative trade routes instead. The limitations at the Panama Canal have compelled certain shippers to reroute exports, including Ammonium Nitrate, through the Suez Canal to access Asian markets. If the constraints at the Suez Canal persist, it may become increasingly challenging for the US to export Ammonium Nitrate, potentially resulting in an oversupply and subsequent reduction in prices. As a consequence of delayed shipments to the international market, there has been an accumulation of Ammonium Nitrate inventories within the country. Moreover, the demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained subdued in the United States, coinciding with the conclusion of the peak fertilizer season.
APAC
The Ammonium Nitrate market in the APAC region prevailed mixed sentiments throughout the q4 of 2023. The prices declined in the first of the quarter due to surplus availability of material within the Chinese market. After China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has continued to halt exports of fertilizers there is surplus availability of material in the market. Further, with the autumn season sweeping away demand for Ammonium Nitrate from the end-user fertilizer market remained subdued. However later the prices increased by a significant margin. Increasing price of essential feedstock Ammonia prompted towards higher production cost thus exerting upward cost pressure on Ammonium Nitrate prices. Further, during this period, there was a deficiency in imports from the European Ammonium Nitrate market. The redirection of merchant ships from the Red Sea, prompted by the imminent threat of attacks from Houthi militants off Yemen, resulted in a notable surge in freight charges as many shippers altered their shipping routes. However, demand from the significant downstream fertilizer industry remained subdued, as the peak planting season had concluded.
Europe
The European Ammonium Nitrate market prevailed downward trajectory throughout the fourth quarter of 2023. This price dip is primarily attributed to surplus availability of the material in the market coupled with lacklustre demand from the prominent downstream user fertilizer industry. At the onset of this quarter Buyers were closely watching nitrogen prices as some speculate prices may drop in the coming months. The next seasonal demand window will open in Spring 2024, so they were in no rush to purchase Ammonium Nitrate at present. However, adverse weather conditions within the region along with heavy rainfall posed to be a potential threat for the crops. This has further dampened the buying enthusiasm of Ammonium Nitrate consumers for Spring 2024. Additionally, trade uncertainties amidst rebel attacks in the Red Sea had caused the traders to opt for alternative trade route. In an effort to avoid strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen, carriers have already diverted trade over the past several weeks away from the crucial Middle East trade route, which, along with the Suez Canal, connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean. This has created a multiple-front storm for global trade, leading to a surge in European port inventories. The interplay of these factors prompted towards narrowed gap between demand and supply thus supporting the current price dip.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The Ammonium Nitrate market in North America experienced fluctuations in the first month of the third quarter but showed a subsequent increase throughout the entire third Quarter of 2023. In July, prices declined due to the underperformance of the downstream fertilizer sector, worsened by prolonged drought conditions and reduced exports via the Panama Canal. However, August saw a bullish trend in the market, with a modest demand resurgence as domestic consumers prepared for the upcoming planting season in September and October. Prices continued to rise significantly in September, reaching USD 725/MT, driven by firm demand, increased production rates, and limited Ammonium Nitrate availability. The rising costs of feedstock Ammonia, Nitric Acid, and Natural Gas led to higher production and price increases. Hurricane Idalia disrupted production, leading to terminal closures by Kinder Morgan and a supply shortage. Moreover, there was a substantial increase in international demand for Ammonium Nitrate in late September 2023, partly due to reduced fertilizer exports from China. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated a 0.5% increase in the Producer Price Index, suggesting heightened consumption of goods in the country.
APAC
Asian Ammonium Nitrate market prevailed mixed market trends for the third quarter ending in September 2023. Prices of Chinese Ammonium Nitrate declined in the month of July 2023 in the wake of weak purchasing activities from the international and domestic fertilizer market. However, the price of upstream raw coal and liquid ammonia market was increasing marginally, and the price trend of the nitric acid market was falling back. The lower price of raw materials had a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Conversely, the prices saw a significant increase during August 2023 and continued to rise through September. This escalation in Ammonium Nitrate price can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the increased price of essential feedstock, firm demand from international and domestic fertilizer markets, and supply chain constraints. The elevated cost of essential feedstock Ammonia and upstream Thermal Coal prompted higher production rates, consequently leading to an uptick in Ammonium Nitrate price. Further, demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained robust in the international market, particularly in India and Brazil. There was a shortage of spot availability of Ammonium Nitrate in the Chinese market, as producers are focused on fulfilling supply contracts. Further, during this period, the supply of the material in the Chinese market was lower than expected in some parts of the country as production activity of some plants in the Shandong region declined. The confluence of these factors prompted a widened gap between demand and supply, supporting the current price hike. Furthermore, as per data released by the National Bureau of Labor and Statistics, the new order index was almost stable after increasing marginally from 50.2 in August 2023 to 50.5 in September 2023, along with a sharp increase in the Production Price Index of the country, thus indicating the consumption of goods. Henceforth, during September, the Ex-work price of Ammonium Nitrate was assessed at USD 556/MT at Shandong port.
Europe
The European Ammonium Nitrate market exhibited mixed trends in the third quarter, ending in September 2023. In July, Ammonium Nitrate prices declined due to weak purchasing from international and domestic fertilizer markets. However, prices of essential feedstocks like Natural Gas and liquid ammonia were gradually increasing, while the nitric acid market trended downward, impacting the Ammonium Nitrate market negatively. Prices took a significant upturn in August 2023 and continued to rise through September. This price escalation can be attributed to a combination of factors, including increased costs of essential feedstock, strong demand for Ammonium Nitrate and its derivatives from international and domestic fertilizer markets, and supply chain constraints. Several disruptive events in the European market during August 2023 had a substantial impact on the fertilizer landscape. A fire in a fertilizer warehouse in Moscow and subsequent damage to 60,000 tons of fertilizer at the Odesa port disrupted the supply chain for fertilizers, including Ammonium Nitrate, in Europe. Further, in September, issues with Norwegian offshore gas facilities, along with reduced gas supply to the US Gulf Coast, led to higher gas prices. Consequently, European Ammonium Nitrate producers faced increased pressure to import gas from the USA rather than producing it themselves. The weakened Euro in comparison to the USD, contributed to costly imports of essential feedstock, including Ammonia, Nitric Acid, and Natural Gas, further driving higher production rates and Ammonium Nitrate prices.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The prices of Ammonium Nitrate have shown a decline in price trend throughout the second quarter. The prices have declined by a margin of 6.7% from April to June. The decline in the price of Ammonium Nitrate was mainly driven by a decline in feedstock Ammonia and Nitric Acid prices and diminished demand from the Nitrogenous fertilizer industry. However, fewer exports to other importing American countries like Canada and Mexico were observed due to low water levels in the Mississippi River, leading to a situation of oversupplies in the country. Ample availability of the material in the inventories coupled with diminished demand from domestic and international markets paved the way for a narrow supply gap in the country, consequently impacting the price. According to the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics, the Natural Gas Index decreased by 2.6% monthly. This was the fourth consecutive in that index. However, as the Federal Reserve of Economic Data indicates, the Consumer Price Index of the USA has shown a marginal rise from 302.91 in April 2023 to 303.29 in May 2023. In the coming months, future market sentiments suggest a potential shift toward an incline in prices backed by Natural Gas and Crude Oil fluctuations.
APAC
Prices of Ammonium Nitrate showcased a downward trajectory throughout the second quarter ending in June 2023 in the APAC region. The Ammonium Nitrate spot Ex prices declined by a margin of 5.1% in China and by 5.6% in Indonesia. The prices declined in China on the back of a decline in feedstock Ammonia and Thermal Coal prices. Further, it was observed that China reduced its exports by 0.4% at the end of May 2023, almost after a year leading to stockpiled inventories creating a situation of oversupplies in the country. Depreciating demand from the nitrogenous fertilizer industry coupled with ample material availability in the market led to a narrow demand-supply gap in the region. Additionally, as indicated by the National Bureau of Statistics China, the Purchasing Manager Index is declining and has been recorded at 48.8 in May 2023 after a marginal decline of 0.8% from the previous month, and the industrial growth rate declined from 5.6 in April 2023 to 3.5 in May 2023.
Europe
Similar to the trend in the global market, the prices of Ammonium Nitrate showed a declining trend in this quarter. For the three months ending in June, the FOB Ammonium Nitrate prices declined by a margin of 5% from April to June. The key driving factor behind the declining prices was the country's surplus availability of feedstock material. The blast in the pipeline, which was used to transport Ammonia from Russia to other countries via Ukraine, led to the surplus availability of Ammonia in the country, consequently affecting the price of the product. Further, a progressive fall in demand from the mining and agricultural sector and a weak market of the feedstock Ammonia and Nitric Acid also supported the current prevailing price trend. Procurement orders from major importing country Brazil have also been low during this quarter, driven by fewer fertilizer purchases in the country. However, the Central Bank of Europe has increased interest rates in the region to control inflation further, which may lead to a potential shift towards an incline in prices in the region.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The sharp decrease in Ammonium Nitrate settlement pushed prices down this quarter amid a lack of support from supply-demand dynamics. Ammonium Nitrate availability was comfortable within the region, even though buyers shunned trades due to the weak spot purchasing activities and weak demand. In Q1 2023, the Ammonium Nitrate market remains bearish when compared with the previous quarter. Activities in the downstream mining and Urea Ammonium Nitrate industry remained sluggish for this quarter. Exports of Ammonium Nitrate from the USA to Canada and Mexico traded lower due to bearish regional demand and sufficient product availability. In Jan 2023, the price of Ammonium Nitrate in the USA declined to USD 945/ton DEL New York.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, the Ammonium Nitrate market showcases an upper price trend along with an uptick in the trading fundamentals. The improvement in the downstream market, along with market participants in the trading activities, further boosts the price trend. Supply/demand imbalance in the Chinese market continued to fuel selling interest among the suppliers with the revision in the price trend. The demand for Ammonium Nitrate from the downstream Urea Ammonium Nitrate also surged, and suppliers raised their offers to sustain their profit margin and sales. In March, the price of Ammonium Nitrate in China surged to USD 636/ton Spot Ex-Shandong.
Europe
In Q1 2023, the trading fundamentals of Ammonium Nitrate in the European region struggled to rebound when compared with the previous quarter. The Ammonium Nitrate market faced uncertainty with sluggish demand, which declined the price trend. The European market has observed elevated interest rate hikes due to inflation, which have suppressed domestic Ammonium Nitrate demand. Ammonium Nitrate demand softened amid economic concerns and adequate inventories that forced producers to cutbacks. The demand for Ammonium Nitrate from downstream mining and the Urea Ammonium Nitrate industry remains lower with moderately operating downstream enterprises. Weak market fundamentals and rising product inventories among the enterprises declined the expected price gain this quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Ammonium Nitrate prices soared in the last quarter of 2022 despite low domestic market consumption rates, and production rates maintained their highest levels. Port overcrowding and logistical problems on the U.S. Gulf and East Coast have made the supply dynamics worse. The weak demand from the agricultural industries downstream has restricted the fundamentals of demand, which has also had an impact on trade attitudes in the local market. Furthermore, U.S. exports of nitrogen fertilizers, particularly AN, soared to an all-time high as natural gas prices in Europe increased, increasing the cost of manufacturing there and making U.S. shipments more competitive. The consistent market sentiment caused a decline in Ammonium Nitrate prices in the U.S. market during the last month of Q4.
APAC
Ammonium Nitrate Prices have fallen in Asia due to market negativity. The price trend of domestic Ammonium Nitrate has decreased in the Chinese market due to the high cost of production fuels like coal and oil, and there was a significant price gap between manufacturers. A regular supply of items on the market resulted in a decrease in the price of Ammonium Nitrate. The cost of raw materials was reasonably stable, which aided the Ammonium Nitrate industry. The spot supply of Ammonium Nitrate at the site was typical recently; several downstream businesses had their equipment updated, their procurement environments were generally favorable, and the market's pricing trend was temporarily stable. Ammonium Nitrate Spot Ex-Bontang (Indonesia) was priced at USD 611/M.T. due to sufficient inventory levels being available to meet domestic needs.
Europe
Prices of Ammonium Nitrate in Europe decreased like those of the majority of nitrates since there were no consumers in Europe, which prevented any considerable market changes. Ammonium Nitrate production costs continued to decline as favorable weather in the European region normalized the manufacturing costs. Natural gas prices also fell toward the middle of the quarter, which caused the price of Ammonium Nitrate to fall. Downstream demand was rather modest following the peak season for agricultural demand. Demand has been weak to stable for the downstream industry during the quarter. In December, the average price for Ammonium Nitrate FOB Novorossiysk (Russia) was USD 532/M.T.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
Ammonium Nitrate prices remained stable to firm in the North American region, prompted by sufficient supply and weak purchasing appetite. The declining values of feedstock Crude Oil and Ammonia imparted negative cost pressure in the market fundamentals of the regional market. Production rates remained optimum despite weak consumption rates in the American market. Supply chains have remained a cause of concern for US manufacturers in the past few quarters. Logistics constraints and port congestions in US Gulf and East Coast have worsened the supply dynamics. The demand disruption from the downstream agriculture industries amidst Hurricane Ian has hampered the demand fundamentals and impacted the regional market's trading sentiments during the third quarter of 2022.
APAC
In the Asia Pacific region, the price trend of regional Ammonium Nitrate plunged during Q3. The low price was primarily due to sluggish demand. The price of raw material liquid Ammonia in the market has recently varied, while the price of Nitric Acid has stayed on the lower side. The requirement for Ammonium Nitrate was adversely affected by the cheap cost of raw materials, while the downstream demand from the explosive industry's sales had halted. The market situation has remained bearish, majorly in the APAC region. Ample supplies are reported in the regional market as operating rates decreased in the regional market due to high energy costs.
Europe
In the European region, Ammonium Nitrate prices surged with limited supplies and uncertain geopolitical climatic conditions. The Supply Situation remained under pressure as the industrial operation rates were moderate, but supply was reduced along with a declined level of inventories. As most of the materials were being exported to Asian countries, which led to limited material availability in the regional market. The downstream demand from mining and Explosives industries was moderate due to their average performance in the regional market. Supply constraints and worries about inflation have aided Ammonium Nitrate prices to surge to record or multi-year highs. Rising Ammonium Nitrate prices have been fuelled by the squeeze in Russian gas supplies and increased EU demand.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
Ammonium nitrate was in great demand in the North American market this quarter. Pricing for ammonium nitrate has been affected this quarter by rising ammonia costs and increased demand from downstream sectors. Additionally, growing Natural Gas costs impacted the price of various fertilisers in the US. The price of ammonium nitrate on a FOB basis climbed during June and reached a high of USD 980/MT in the US. Additionally, the cost of inputs like fertiliser, gas, and transportation is putting a burden on farmers' finances all around the world. Ammonium nitrate prices significantly increased this month in the US market due to the ongoing agricultural season. The primary causes of this sharp price increase include rising Ammonia raw material costs amid increased demand from end-users.
APAC
May saw a sharp increase in the price of ammonium nitrate in India because of rising raw material costs and low imports. The price of ammonium nitrate in Indonesia increased by a negligible 1% in May. Southeast Asian buyers' reduced contracted volumes constrained demand for industrial goods. Concerns over the cost and availability of nitrogen have also increased due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. By the end of May, ex-Bontang ammonium nitrate prices were rising and circling around USD 790 per metric tonne. China, which has been consistently bullish over the past quarter, had a little price increase this month because of the domino effect of increased demand. Demand has therefore exceeded supply.
Europe
Ammonium Nitrate increased in the European region during Q2 2022. Following an energy shortage that slowed production in Europe, fertilizer prices have soared to new highs worldwide, while export restrictions and trade sanctions limited the fertilizer supply in Europe. Furthermore, the increasing shortage of raw material Ammonia and inflationary pressure, and logistical issues remained the significant reasons for this price hike in the global market. The recent Ammonium Nitrate prices in the European Market were assessed at USD964-972/MT, following a significant price hike this quarter. Ammonium nitrate's price has risen dramatically this month due to a sharp increase in raw material Ammonia and Nitric Acid costs and significant demand from the downstream fertilizer and mining sector. Russia, one of the largest exporters of urea, curtailed shipments in December 2021 and halted exports of Ammonium Nitrate in Q1, which lingered in this quarter also. Due to an increase in the price of natural gas, the key raw material for nitrogenous fertilizers.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
Ammonium Nitrate prices have seen an upward price trajectory in Q1 2022 on the back of increasing feedstock prices, particularly Ammonia gas, which is one of the critical materials in Ammonium Nitrate production. The price of AN has been impacted by rising natural gas costs, which are crucial in its manufacture. Downstream end users, majorly farmers, were compelled to increase the pricing for their products to widen their profit margins. Ammonium Nitrate is one of two primary forms of nitrogen fertilizer, with urea being the other. Prices were higher in mid-March than a month before the invasion. Tariffs on fertilizers were also questioned as fertilizer prices and supply were causing concern worldwide. Ammonium Nitrate price averaged during the first quarter were USD 360/tonne.
Asia Pacific
Ammonium Nitrate prices in China have regularly climbed in Q1 2022 because of continuous supply chain challenges, weather-related disruptions, and higher shipping container costs, which are likely to lead to shortages and higher fuel fertilizer prices. Russia has also imposed temporary export restrictions and fertilizer bans in recent months. Rising fertilizer costs undermined farmers' profit margins, resulting in higher pricing for downstream customers during Q1 2022. As a result, FOB-Qingdao offers for Ammonium Nitrate in China during the last week of February were quoted at USD 805 per metric tonne. There has been some recovery from downstream demand in the APAC region market following the spring festival, which has pushed prices even higher. This has been primarily due to a steep jump in Natural gas costs, used to make most nitrogen fertilizers such as Ammonium Nitrate. In India, the price of Ammonium Nitrate ex-Ahmedabad was estimated to be USD1001/MT.
Europe
Ammonium Nitrate levels in Europe remained high in Q1 2022 due to increasing energy prices, rising feedstock prices, and growing inflation rates. In the first quarter, Ammonium Nitrate (AN) quotations ranged USD930-1000/MT due to sky-high raw material costs and concerns about the security of previously limited fertilizer supply. Furthermore, since February, Russia has prohibited the export of Ammonium Nitrate, and gas prices have continued to rise, forcing fertilizer prices to reach new highs. European gas prices reached a new high, more than doubling the threshold at which production was halted. As a result of rising gas prices, Yara, a European manufacturer, had suspended production at nitrogen factories in Italy and France. CFR Northwest Europe's price was reported at USD 1,140/MT during the first quarter ending March 2022.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
Ammonium Nitrate was in high demand in the North American market this quarter. Rising Ammonia prices, combined with strong demand from various sectors such as DAP and Urea, had an impact on Ammonium Nitrate pricing during this timeframe. Furthermore, surging Natural Gas prices influenced the prices of several fertilisers in the United States. In the United States, the price of Anhydrous Ammonia FOB New Orleans rose and settled at USD1280/MT during December. Additionally, input costs such as fertiliser, fuel, and transportation are putting pressure on farmers' budgets around the world.
APAC
Due to high demand from the domestic market and rising raw material costs, Ammonium Nitrate prices were constant in the fourth quarter. Although supply was insufficient to meet the region's total demands, demand from the fertiliser and mining industries remained high. Moreover, rising raw material Ammonia costs, as well as inflationary pressure and logistical constraints, were also major factors in this price hike. In December, Ammonium Nitrate prices were hovering at INR 68740/MT Ex-Mumbai, following a significant price hike. Furthermore, China's recent limitations on fertiliser exports have sparked global worries.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2021, there was a severe shortage of Ammonium Nitrate in the North American market. The supply of feedstock chemicals Ammonia and Nitric Acid decreased significantly after winter storm Uri hit the US Gulf Coast in February, owing to reduced industrial activity. However, demand for fertilisers was halted for more than a month because of snow and frequent rains, which curtailed farming activity during that time. This demand successfully strengthened in November before the festive season, and total Ammonium Nitrate price improved by more than 20% during the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
In Q3 of 2021, the US Ammonium Nitrate market remained buoyant with surging demand from the downstream agriculture sector. As the economic recovery had been steadily progressing towards pre-pandemic levels, prices of Ammonium Nitrite witnessed an uptrend. Supplies remained tight throughout the quarter owing to the rising costs of upstream Ammonia as an impact of Ida hurricane that made landfall in the Gulf Coast of USA in August end. As the US market is looming large following the energy crisis due, Ammonium Nitrite prices are expected to continue tracing the trend going into Q4.
Asia
In Asia, Ammonium Nitrate market witnessed an upward rally followed by the steep rise in the prices of upstream Ammonia and sturdy offtakes from the downstream segments during Q3 of 2021. In India, an exponential rise in the prices of Ammonium Nitrate was witnessed throughout the quarter on the back of the steep rise in raw material cost amid high demand from the domestic market. In addition, the inventory level of fertilizers in India was not enough to meet the seasonal demand requirements which consequently pushed up the prices of the product during this timeframe. However, to protect farmers from the price burden, government made efforts to control frequent revisions in prices of Ammonium Nitrate in the region. Besides, restrictions on fertilizers exports by China also concerned traders about the supply. Hence, Ammonium Nitrate Ex-Ahmedabad prices stood at USD 1662.83 per MT in September, showcasing a significant hike since July.
Europe
In the European market, prices of Ammonium Nitrate soared as the demand for fertilizers from the domestic and international market surged in Q3 2021. Consistent rise in the values of raw materials in the international market further escalated the prices of Ammonium Nitrite across the region. Moreover, swirling freight charges and rising demand for Ammonium Nitrite for downstream applications resulted in an uptrend in values in the European region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
North American market witnessed firm demand for Ammonium Nitrate during this quarter. A major manufacturer of USA revealed about the stable offtakes from the domestic fertilizers market during the month of May, as the climate condition became suitable for farming. In addition, soaring Ammonia prices amid firm demand from different verticals like DAP and Urea also impacted the prices of Ammonium Nitrate during this timeframe. Besides, fluctuating natural gas prices also influenced the prices of different fertilizers including Ammonium Nitrate in USA.
Asia
Asian market faced firm sentiments for Ammonium Nitrate during this quarter from the domestic market, backed by significant offtakes from the end use segments. In India, demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained consistently firm throughout the quarter, while prices of feedstock Ammonia rose effectively due to high demand and inadequate availability. While in China, prices remained consistently firm in the domestic market, as the seasonal demand was approaching in the country. However soaring feedstock Ammonia prices also influenced the prices of Ammonium Nitrate in the country during this timeframe.
Europe
European market experienced firm demand for Ammonium Nitrate during this quarter. Amidst the firm demand from the downstream sector several other fertilizers also rose effectively. A major producer Yara announced their new seasonal prices for Europe. The company surprisingly offered Ammonium Nitrate on a comparatively lower prices than the ones offered previously.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
North American market faced acute shortage of Ammonium Nitrate across the region during Q1 2021. After the winter storm Uri stroke US Gulf Coast in February, the availability of feedstock chemicals Ammonia and Nitric Acid reduced affectively due to curtailed production activities. However, the demand for fertilizers remained suspended for more than a month, as snow and frequent rains reduced the farming activities during the time period. This demand effectively improved in March and overall prices of Ammonium Nitrate showcased improvement by more than 20% within the quarter across Nebraska farms.
Asia
Asian countries encountered firm demand for Ammonium Nitrate fertilizerfrom domestic agriculture sector during the quarter ending March. With the arrival of crop season Zaid in India, and with uplifted sentiments after sufficiently good crop in the prior quarter, demand for Ammonium Nitrate in the Indian market improved effectively. Indian imports witnessed an increase on y-o-y basis during Q1 2021. Meanwhile in Chinese market similar scenario was observed where the seasonal demand remained consistently firm.
Europe
Arrival of Spring season escalated the market sentiments of Europe, where the demand remained substantially high throughout the quarter. However, unfavourable climate condition in some areas halted the agricultural activity for some weeks, which later recovered efficiently. Thus, the prices rose affectively in Europe for almost all the fertilisers including Ammonium Nitrate especially from UAN fertilisers segment, whose demand was observed higher than many other alternatives.
