EIA Upholds its Production Forecasts for Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel, and SAF

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has maintained its production forecasts for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), for the years 2024 and 2025 in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on November 13, according to the several media reports.

For biodiesel, the EIA anticipates U.S. production to average 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, with a slight decline to 100,000 bpd in 2025. These projections remain unchanged from last month’s STEO. In 2023, biodiesel production averaged 110,000 bpd. The EIA has also revised its forecast for net biodiesel imports, which are now expected to average 10,000 bpd in 2024, down from the previous estimate of 20,000 bpd. Additionally, the EIA expects net imports of biodiesel to drop to zero bpd in 2025, as the U.S. is expected to meet its demand from domestic production. In 2023, net biodiesel imports averaged 20,000 bpd. As for biodiesel consumption, the EIA expects it to average 120,000 bpd in 2024 and 100,000 bpd in 2025, both forecasts in line with the October STEO. Consumption in 2023 averaged 130,000 bpd.

Regarding renewable diesel, the EIA projects that U.S. production will average 210,000 bpd in 2024, with an increase to 230,000 bpd in 2025. These estimates remain consistent with the October forecast. Renewable diesel production in 2023 averaged 170,000 bpd. The EIA has adjusted its forecast for net renewable diesel imports, predicting they will average 40,000 bpd in 2024, a higher figure compared to the 30,000 bpd forecast in the October STEO. However, for 2025, the forecast for net imports of renewable diesel remains unchanged at 20,000 bpd. Renewable diesel consumption is expected to average 240,000 bpd in 2024, consistent with the prior forecast. However, the EIA has slightly lowered its projection for 2025 consumption, now forecasting 240,000 bpd, down from the previous estimate of 250,000 bpd. Consumption of renewable diesel in 2023 averaged 190,000 bpd.

The EIA also provided its outlook for “other” biofuels, a category that includes renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel (including SAF), alternative jet fuel, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels currently in various stages of development and commercialization. The agency expects production of these biofuels to average 20,000 bpd in 2024, with an increase to 40,000 bpd in 2025. These projections are unchanged from the October STEO. In 2023, production of other biofuels also averaged 20,000 bpd. The EIA has maintained its forecast that net imports of these biofuels will remain at zero bpd in both 2024 and 2025, which is consistent with the previous year’s trend. Consumption of “other” biofuels is projected to average 20,000 bpd in 2024 and rise to 40,000 bpd in 2025, in line with the October STEO. In 2023, consumption of other biofuels was also at 20,000 bpd.

In summary, the EIA has kept its production, import, and consumption forecasts for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and other biofuels largely unchanged from the previous month, with minor adjustments to the outlook for renewable diesel imports and consumption. The agency’s outlook reflects ongoing trends in biofuel production and consumption across the U.S., with an emphasis on steady growth in renewable diesel and the continued expansion of emerging biofuels like SAF.