The U.S. Energy Information Administration on April 10 released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, cutting its 2025 forecasts for renewable diesel and biodiesel production while boosting projections for other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel.

According to the updated report, the EIA now expects renewable diesel production to average 220,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from its March estimate of 230,000 barrels per day. However, the agency kept its 2026 forecast unchanged at 250,000 barrels per day. Renewable diesel production averaged 210,000 barrels per day in 2024.

The outlook for renewable diesel net imports has also shifted. The EIA now projects net imports to average negative 10,000 barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, compared to last month’s estimate of 20,000 barrels per day. In 2024, net imports stood at 30,000 barrels per day.

Renewable diesel consumption is also expected to fall. The EIA revised its 2025 consumption forecast to 210,000 barrels per day, down from 240,000. For 2026, consumption is expected to reach 250,000 barrels per day, a decrease from the previously forecast 270,000. In 2024, consumption averaged 240,000 barrels per day.

For biodiesel, the agency cut its 2025 production forecast to 90,000 barrels per day, down from the earlier projection of 100,000 barrels. The 2026 estimate remains at 100,000 barrels per day. Biodiesel production averaged 110,000 barrels per day last year.

Net imports of biodiesel are projected to be zero for both 2025 and 2026, consistent with the March outlook. That compares to 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.

Biodiesel consumption is now forecast to average 90,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from 100,000 barrels. The 2026 estimate remains unchanged at 100,000 barrels per day. Biodiesel consumption in 2024 averaged 120,000 barrels per day.

In contrast, forecasts for “other biofuels” were revised upward. This category includes renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel (SAF and other aviation alternatives), renewable gasoline, renewable naphtha, and various emerging biofuels. Production is expected to rise to 50,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 60,000 barrels per day in 2026, up from earlier forecasts of 40,000 and 50,000, respectively. Output in 2024 was 20,000 barrels per day.

Consumption of other biofuels is expected to match production at 50,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 60,000 in 2026, up from last month’s outlook of 40,000 and 50,000. Net exports for the category remain forecast at zero through 2026, unchanged from 2024.