For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Biodiesel Price Index rose by 2.03% quarter-over-quarter, supported by policy and feedstock.
• The average Biodiesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 1558.33/MT, reflecting stable CFR Houston.
• Biodiesel Spot Price remained firm, supported by strong domestic blending demand and CFR Houston imports.
• Biodiesel Price Forecast suggests modest upside from mandates, though feedstock oversupply risks could temper gains.
• Biodiesel Production Cost Trend shows rising soybean oil expenses offset by increased domestic crush capacity.
• Biodiesel Demand Outlook remains constructive on RFS mandates, B20 adoption, and seasonal transport fuel demand.
• Biodiesel Price Index volatility eased as inventories balanced, selective outages occurred, and imports remained constrained.
• Biodiesel Spot Price and Price Index movements reflected tax credit reforms, logistic stability, exporter demand.
Why did the price of Biodiesel change in September 2025 in North America?
• Policy reforms reduced imported biofuel competitiveness, redirected demand to domestic producers, pressuring CFR Houston volumes.
• Feedstock dynamics, notably soybean oil tightening and high crush margins, increased production costs and supported spot prices.
• Inventory levels and export activity moderated domestic demand, while logistics and refinery utilization maintained balanced supply.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Biodiesel Price Index rose by 6.28% quarter-over-quarter, driven by higher feedstock palm oil and mandate demand.
• The average Biodiesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 1208.00/MT, reflecting domestic blending demand and elevated CPO costs.
• Biodiesel Spot Price showed weekly stability, with inventory builds and steady export inquiry tempering upside despite feedstock tightness.
• Biodiesel Production Cost Trend rose as palm oil and UCO input prices increased, compressing refinery margins.
• Biodiesel Demand Outlook remains firm due to B40 mandate, subsidy support, and robust domestic transportation and industrial offtake.
• Biodiesel Price Forecast indicates modest quarter-end volatility driven by seasonal diesel consumption and feedstock supply fluctuations.
• Price Index momentum benefited from full plant utilisation, stable logistics, and limited operational disruptions across Indonesian producers.
Why did the price of Biodiesel change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Persistent B40 blending demand and government subsidies sustained domestic consumption mid-year, tightening available biodiesel volumes.
• Rising crude palm oil and UCO feedstock costs increased production breakevens, exerting upward pressure on biodiesel pricing.
• Smooth port operations tempered disruption risk, while export enquiries and seasonal demand created mild short-term volatility.
Europe
• In Spain, the Biodiesel Price Index rose by 1.97% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting regulatory-driven demand and steady feedstock flows.
• The average Biodiesel price for the quarter was approximately USD 1413.33/MT, reflecting steady procurement and inventory balances.
• Biodiesel Price Index remained range-bound as balanced supply and summer diesel blending supported moderate price stability.
• Biodiesel Spot Price exhibited limited weekly volatility despite tightening feedstock availability and Asian import competition pressuring margins.
• Biodiesel Production Cost Trend saw upward pressure from EU compliance costs and steady energy tariffs affecting processing expenses.
• Biodiesel Demand Outlook remains firm from blending mandates and maritime compliance shifts, sustaining baseline procurement into Q4.
• Biodiesel Price Forecast indicates modest upside risk from regulatory shifts, seasonal diesel demand and inventory drawdowns.
Why did the price of Biodiesel change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Balanced supply and steady UCOME arrivals marginally limited upside despite modest seasonal diesel demand increases.
• Regulatory compliance costs and FuelEU Maritime transposition tightened supply options, raising short term price support.
• Asian import discounts and thinner liquidity pressured spot trading, creating mild downward momentum by late September.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Price Index of Biodiesel rose by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, closing at USD 1550/MT UCO CFR Houston by late June. Fluctuated mid-quarter with stable gains in May and June.
• Why did the Price Index change in July 2025?
Expected to stay firm or edge up, supported by high soybean oil prices and regulatory clarity from the EPA.
• Biodiesel Spot Price: Held within USD 1520–1550/MT range. June’s 1.31% rise driven by bullish feedstock and EPA volume targets.
• Biodiesel Forecast: Short-term outlook remains firm due to strong blending mandates and forward-buying triggered by rising RINs.
• Biodiesel Production Cost Trend: Climbed in Q2 as soybean oil surged >6% mid-June. Domestic feedstock costs rose due to tighter EPA policies on imports and credits.
• Biodiesel Demand Outlook was strong, aided by increase in distillate fuel use. Blending mandates and summer driving sustained stable uptake.
• Credit Market Impact: D4 RINs rose from 109¢ to 132¢ by June. LCFS credits remained flat, limiting additional pricing pressure.
• Policy Influence: EPA’s proposed 2026–2027 blending targets boosted confidence. Uncertainty over SREs led to cautious but forward-leaning procurement.
• Import Substitution: EPA curbs on imported fuel credits redirected demand to domestic biodiesel, increasing market share for U.S. producers.
• No major disruptions. Strong U.S. dollar offered mild relief on imports, but domestic dynamics remained dominant.
APAC
• Price Index declined by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter, with Biodiesel Spot Price assessed at USD 1150/MT UCO FOB Qingdao in June 2025. Market conditions fluctuated between bearish and mildly bullish trends due to shifting export patterns, feedstock dynamics, and evolving policy drivers.
• Market activity remained sluggish as UCO trading was limited, with participants unwilling to revise expectations. Export competitiveness weakened due to pressure from Southeast Asian suppliers.
• Export disruptions intensified after key Western markets imposed high tariffs, leading to rerouting of UCO and biodiesel cargoes to alternative Asian destinations. This created short-term oversupply and strained producer margins.
• Policy shifts, including the removal of tax incentives and new SAF demand, encouraged a pivot toward domestic consumption, but capacity utilization remained low.
• A brief improvement in buying interest was observed due to tightening UCO availability and logistical restocking, though this support was temporary.
• Demand from transportation and industrial sectors stayed soft, weighed down by high inventories, limited blending mandates, and weak export offtake.
• Southeast Asian UCOME imports-maintained pressure on domestic producers, further constraining pricing power and delaying recovery in production economics.
• Overall, the Biodiesel Demand Outlook remained muted, with producers focusing on realigning supply chains toward SAF and marine fuels while awaiting policy clarity and stronger downstream uptake.
• The Biodiesel Forecast suggests a slow recovery path, contingent on successful market diversification and improved domestic absorption.
• The Biodiesel Production Cost Trend stayed mostly neutral, supported by steady UCO input prices but challenged by low operating rates and compressed margins.
Europe
• The Biodiesel Price Index increased by +3.3% quarter-on-quarter driven by fluctuating supply-demand fundamentals, seasonal blending shifts, and rising gasoil benchmarks.
• The Biodiesel Price Index softened in early Q2 as UCOME premiums narrowed due to improved feedstock availability and reduced blending activity.
• Market sentiment turned stable by late April and May, supported by consistent demand from transport and industrial sectors under RED II compliance.
• The Biodiesel Demand Outlook in May remained cautiously optimistic, backed by sustainability-linked procurement, though trading was moderate amid logistical constraints.
• In June, the Price Index first dipped on weak transport fuel demand and oversupply, then rebounded as geopolitical tensions lifted gasoil prices, tightening biodiesel availability.
• Biodiesel Production Cost Trend reflected margin pressures from high fossil fuel costs and declining replacement values, challenging producers despite firm spot demand.
• The Biodiesel Forecast for July suggests potential upside from seasonal demand and geopolitical volatility, though gains may be capped by soft certificate markets and flat compliance-driven support.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the U.S. Biodiesel market witnessed fluctuating trends driven by shifting policy landscapes, seasonal demand variations, and supply constraints. The quarter opened with stable prices, supported by steady imports from Europe and consistent demand from the transportation sector. However, by the last week of January, prices declined to USD 1500/MT UCO CFR Houston, influenced by uncertainty around the 45Z tax credit and potential repeal of policy support measures like H.R. 549. Producers ramped up output to capitalize on existing incentives, leading to oversupply and bearish sentiment.
As the quarter progressed, February continued to reflect a weak market tone. Cold weather and low diesel prices reduced blending activity, while supply growth was limited due to delayed federal funding for production expansions. Although there were brief periods of price stabilization driven by feedstock cost fluctuations and logistical issues, overall demand remained subdued. The expiration of the Blenders Tax Credit further impacted margins and domestic production.
The end of the quarter marked a recovery phase in March. Supply constraints from paused domestic operations and rising diesel prices, coupled with steady imports and increasing seasonal demand, supported a bullish trend. Policy discussions around RFS mandates and clean fuel incentives also contributed to positive market sentiment. Prices rebounded steadily, closing the quarter on a stronger note.
APAC
In Q1 2025 APAC region, Indonesia’s biodiesel market displayed a mixed price trend shaped by domestic policies, feedstock dynamics, and global demand patterns. The quarter began with relative price stability due to balanced supply-demand dynamics, supported by abundant availability of used cooking oil (UCO) and the anticipation surrounding the B40 blending mandate. This policy aimed to boost domestic consumption of biodiesel and reduce reliance on imported diesel.
During the last week of January, biodiesel prices stood stable at USD 1110/MT Ex-Tanjung Priok, following the resumption of government subsidies via the Palm Oil Fund Agency. These subsidies played a vital role in offsetting production costs and maintaining market equilibrium.
As the quarter progressed, prices showed a modest increase amid rising crude palm oil (CPO) prices, weather-related supply disruptions, and optimism around the full implementation of B40. However, global trade challenges, sluggish export demand, and low crude oil prices limited upward momentum.
Towards the end of the quarter, the market turned bearish as palm oil inventories increased and feedstock prices dropped, leading to reduced production costs. Biodiesel prices declined by quarter-end. Despite strong domestic mandates, weak global demand and cost-effective feedstocks contributed to a softening price trajectory, marking a cautious end to Q1 2025.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the German biodiesel market witnessed a dynamic price trend shaped by regulatory shifts, fluctuating demand, and evolving supply conditions. The quarter began with stable prices as domestic production ramped up in response to anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports, ensuring a balanced market. However, by the last week of January, prices had declined to USD 1300/MT FD Hamburg, driven by weakened demand, particularly in marine and road transport sectors. The introduction of Fuel EU Maritime regulations, though intended to support biofuel adoption, led to a shift in sourcing to non-European markets due to compliance flexibility, further weakening local demand.
In February, the market remained bearish. Trade tensions with the U.S. and uncertainty surrounding biofuel regulations and feedstock availability continued to suppress both production and pricing. Although long-term policy support remained intact, the short-term market response was cautious.
March marked a turning point, with biodiesel prices recovering due to surging costs of waste-based feedstocks like used cooking oil and tightening supply. Seasonal demand and regulatory optimism surrounding CO2-neutral fuels contributed to a bullish market outlook. Overall, Q1 2025 reflected a volatile yet resilient biodiesel market in Germany, with prospects of further growth hinging on policy clarity and feedstock stability.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the North American market during the fourth quarter of 2024, Biodiesel prices displayed a notable upward trend despite varying market conditions. Throughout the quarter, there was a consistent increase in prices, with a quarter-on-quarter rise of 4%, reflecting a robust and resilient market. The primary drivers for this increase were the rising production costs, notably due to higher feedstock prices such as soybean oil, and the continuing supply chain disruptions that limited availability. Additionally, the regulatory environment, with evolving policies such as the Biodiesel Tax Credit Extension Act, played a pivotal role in influencing market dynamics.
Despite facing some uncertainty regarding future tax incentives and the continuation of biofuel mandates, the demand for Biodiesel remained strong. The U.S. market benefited from increasing consumer and industry interest in renewable fuels, fuelled by growing environmental awareness and the government’s renewable energy targets. In particular, demand from the transportation and fuel sector continued to expand, as regulatory policies, including the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), continued to enforce the blending of biodiesel into transportation fuels. This helped to support stable demand, even amid fluctuations in feedstock availability.
The market sentiment remained generally bullish, driven by ongoing production difficulties, regulatory uncertainties, and higher feedstock prices. These factors combined to push prices upward, despite a relatively bearish outlook from some downstream sectors. As a result, Biodiesel prices continued to grow steadily in the quarter, reflecting the interconnected nature of regulatory support, feedstock costs, and market demand.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the APAC biodiesel market exhibited a mix of price fluctuations and periods of stability. The APAC region witnessed a rise in prices in Q4 of 2024 especially South Korea reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%. The market's trajectory was influenced by varying demand and supply dynamics, changes in feedstock costs, and policy measures. October began with marginal price declines, driven by oversupply and weakening demand, but the market rebounded mid-month with rising costs of feedstocks like palm oil and increased production activity. By the end of October, prices stabilized due to conflicting pressures of soaring feedstock prices and robust production, despite tepid demand. In November, biodiesel prices displayed mixed trends, initially gaining traction due to heightened feedstock costs, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia, and stronger demand from the downstream transport sector. However, the latter half of the month saw price declines as upstream palm oil costs eased, leading to reduced production costs. Regulatory interventions, such as extended fuel tax cuts by the South Korean government, further contributed to price stabilization. December was characterized by relative stability interspersed with slight downward adjustments. Consistent demand from the transportation and fuel sectors balanced the increasing preference for ethanol-based biofuels. Weak export activity, along with steady production levels, ensured prices remained largely unchanged. Overall, the fourth quarter highlighted the importance of feedstock availability, global energy trends, and government policies in shaping market dynamics. Despite fluctuations, the market's upward trajectory underscores growing interest in renewable fuels and the sustained efforts to decarbonize South Korea’s energy landscape.
Europe
The European biodiesel market in Q4 2024 saw mixed trends, with prices rising by 6% quarter-on-quarter, especially in Germany driven by strong demand, regulatory changes, and tight supply conditions. Prices initially stabilized in October before increasing steadily in November, peaking in mid-December, and stabilizing again by the end of the year due to reduced demand during the holiday season. Supply remained constrained throughout the quarter, with challenges such as low production margins and limited feedstock availability.
Rapeseed oil imports rose by 17% in October, alleviating some supply issues, but the availability of used cooking oil (UCO) declined, further tightening feedstock supply. Demand remained strong, particularly from Germany, which increased its use of higher biodiesel blends in transportation. Exports to the USA also surged, reflecting growing demand for renewable fuels. Regulatory changes, such as Germany's revision of its greenhouse gas savings quota, supported higher biodiesel consumption.
The halt of GHG quota ticket rollovers for 2025-2026 created a bullish market sentiment. Despite these positive factors, Germany’s industrial production contracted by 1% in November, showing some broader economic challenges. Looking ahead to 2025, the biodiesel market is poised for growth, driven by new regulations, higher blending mandates, and renewable energy incentives, although geopolitical and economic uncertainties will continue to influence market dynamics.
