Bearish trends in Aniline's North American Market Negatively Impact Its Prices

In October 2024, the Aniline market showcased bearish sentiments in the North American region. The market players revised their quotations negatively to improve offtakes from the market. Buyers were cautiously making purchases as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in September 2024 from the preceding month and 2.4% year-over-year (YoY), slightly surpassing expectations but down from the 2.5% YoY rise in August.

At the same time, the Aniline orders were depressing from the buyers due to the sluggish consumption in the Pharma sector. In September 2024, the US pharmaceutical sector saw a 45.4% decline in deals from the same period in 2023. Key transactions included Organon & Co's acquisition of Dermavant Sciences, Genentech USA's purchase of Regor’s CDK inhibitors, and Haleon plc’s 33% stake in Tianjin TSKF Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd., which together accounted for 64% of the month's total deal value. These investments underscore a sustained focus on innovative therapies and tech-driven healthcare solutions in the industry.

Simultaneously, Aniline's offtakes were limited from the market amid low consumption from MDI manufacturers. MDI, a key component in the production of polyurethane (PU) materials, has seen stable demand, particularly within the construction sector. The U.S. construction industry has encountered significant challenges in recent years, with construction costs approximately 40% higher than pre-pandemic levels and ongoing labor shortages affecting progress. Despite these difficulties, the sector demonstrated resilience compared to global trends. Projects started increasing by 6% in the first eight months of the year compared to 2023, according to the Dodge Construction Network. Additionally, the Dodge Momentum Index, which tracks non-residential construction planning, rose by 31% in August year-over-year, indicating positive momentum in the sector.

Concurrently, the Aniline manufacturing rates were firm in the key Asian producer China. Simultaneously, the end of disputes in Libya and the resumed exports from the country improved the availability of feedstock Benzene. It negatively impacted the upstream cost support on the production costs of Aniline in the exporting country. The supplies were firm from Asian exporters and the sub-index for Far East Export, which recorded the highest volumes, experienced a significant increase in September. Synchronically, Aniline imports were steady, and the US imports index experienced an increase in September, continuing its upward trend for the fourth consecutive month.

According to the ChemAnalyst data sources, Aniline CFR Texas quotations hovered at USD 1400/MT at the end of October 2024 after witnessing a decrease of almost 6% in last month's prices.

As per the anticipation, the Aniline prices will decrease in the North American region during the final quarter of the year. The available inventory levels of Aniline are firm in the market, while the offtakes are likely to remain sluggish from downstream industries during the first half of Q4, 2024. Simultaneously, the Aniline production costs might decrease in key exporter China due to the anticipated decline in upstream prices.