In November 2024, the North American Aniline market experienced a bullish trend, driven by steady consumption and constrained supply availability. The market faced supply constraints, which were exacerbated by disruptions in production and logistics, leading to a tightening of inventory levels.

In the first half of the month, the Aniline production rates were intermediate in the producing country, supported by moderate feedstock availability. At the same time, supply levels from China, a key Aniline exporting market, were slightly reduced due to ongoing disruptions in container shipping services in the East China Sea. Port congestion and vessel delays caused by Typhoon Kong-Rey, which struck Taiwan and moved northward, affected eastern China and Japan, further complicating supply chains.

The Aniline offtakes stayed consistent in the pharmaceutical industry. The Pharmaceutical sector showed signs of recovery, driven by multiple FDA approvals that helped companies like Gilead Sciences and Bristol Myers Squibb rebound from previous market capitalization declines. US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts enabled industry leaders to advance R&D pipelines and form billion-dollar strategic alliances, buffering the impact of upcoming patent cliffs. Meanwhile, the generics business grew across all regions, with a 30% increase in the U.S. Meanwhile, the order for Aniline remained moderate from Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate manufacturers, influenced by varied consumption of isocyanates in the Polyurethane sector. The demand for polyurethane materials remained strong in the automotive industry. In October, an increment of 12.8% from a month ago and a 9.6% increase from a year ago, as given by the preliminary figures, including the estimates for the GM/Stellantis/Tesla and other sales figures. However, the consumption of polyurethane materials was slow in the construction industry. In October 2024, the U.S. construction sector faced ongoing labor and material shortages, delaying projects and straining cash flows. Despite a 4.6% year-on-year increase in construction spending for September, growth was hindered by delays. Private and public construction saw modest month-on-month gains, with notable investments in highways and education.

Meanwhile, in the second half of November, Aniline prices were briefly impacted by rising inventory levels in China, a key producer and exporter. This decline was driven by ongoing weak demand in the country and increased production following the restart of the Tianji Aniline plant, which negatively influenced the prices, and exporters reduced their quotations. However, supply chain disruption and steady demand from domestic buyers positively influenced the Aniline prices towards the end of the month. Conclusively, at the end of November 2024, Aniline CFR Texas prices hovered at USD 1380/MT after witnessing a 3.7% increase in last month's prices.

As per the estimation, Aniline prices are likely to decrease in the North American market, with destocking activities by Asian market players likely improving supply availability in the international market. However, procurement activities from buyers are anticipated to remain subdued, and inventory levels are expected to rise. Demand from buyers is unlikely to see significant improvement, while production may continue to face challenges due to operational slowdowns during the peak winter season.