For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2024, the Aniline market experienced a bearish price trend, with a 12% decrease from the previous quarter. The market faced consistent pressure due to moderate demand and rising production costs. In October, Aniline production rates remained stable, but supply from Asian exporters was low. The Typhoon Kong-Rey caused disruptions in the East China Sea, affecting container shipping and further straining supplies. While demand from the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors remained steady, consumption in the construction sector was weak, contributing to the downward price movement.
In the mid-quarter, Aniline production remained stable, but rising Benzene prices increased production costs. The demand for Aniline remained moderate, particularly from the polyurethane sector. U.S. imports of Aniline declined due to typical seasonal decreases, though trade with China showed some resilience. Despite this, a slow decline in Aniline imports was observed.
Towards the end of Q4, Aniline prices continued to fall as supply chain disruptions persisted, and production remained steady. Demand from MDI industries was subdued, though the automotive sector saw some growth. U.S. stockpiling efforts ahead of tariff changes led to higher import volumes, but the overall demand remained weak, reinforcing the bearish price trend throughout the quarter.
APAC
Like, the North American region, throughout Q4 2024, the Aniline market saw a consistent 12% decline in prices from the previous quarter, driven by a combination of weak demand and rising production costs. In October, Aniline prices started on a bullish note due to consistent consumption, although the market was pressured by supply chain disruptions, particularly from Typhoon Kong-Rey, which impacted shipping and caused supply shortages. However, prices began to weaken as the month progressed, with reduced exports from China and stagnant demand in key sectors like automotive and construction. Mid-quarter continued the downward trend, with production rates remaining steady but rising Benzene prices adding cost pressures. The automotive sector saw a 6.4% drop in car sales, and demand from the polyurethane sector slowed as the construction market weakened. The pharmaceutical industry's demand for Aniline also remained subdued due to a surplus of stock, contributing to lower overall consumption. By the end of Q4, prices remained flat, with a slight uptick in Aniline quotations, but demand dynamics were subdued, particularly from the manufacturing sector. While the automotive sector maintained stable demand for MDI-based materials, the broader market struggles, including weaker orders and rising operational costs, kept downward pressure on prices. Overall, the market faced persistent challenges, leading to a 12% decrease in prices for the quarter.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Aniline market showed a 5% increase compared to the previous quarter. This uptick was driven by moderate demand and supply chain challenges. At the beginning of the quarter, Aniline saw subdued demand due to weak consumption in the construction sector and lower offtakes from MDI manufacturers. However, strong demand from the pharmaceutical industry helped support the market. In mid-Q4, Aniline production remained steady, but reduced downstream demand from the Polyurethane sector kept the market in a cautious state. The automotive sector, however, showed resilience, boosting demand for MDI-based solutions. Supply chain disruptions and limited export activity in Europe further tightened regional supply, which helped stabilize prices. By end of Q4, logistical issues continued to impact the market, with delays and capacity constraints in key European ports. Despite the sluggish construction sector and weak housing activity, demand from the automotive sector remained steady, helping to sustain Aniline consumption. With moderate feedstock availability and stable production rates, the overall market saw a slight increase in prices, as regional supplies remained tight amid continued disruptions in shipping and manufacturing output. The market's performance in Q4 highlights a balancing act between weak demand in certain sectors and stronger consumption from others, particularly in automotive applications.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Aniline price trend showcased bearish sentiments, and prices remained in a downward trajectory in the North American region. The decrease in Aniline prices was influenced by several key factors. Firstly, there was sluggish demand from MDI manufacturers due to reduced consumption of Polyurethane materials in the construction and manufacturing sectors. This led to lower offtakes and increased inventory levels in the market. Additionally, the cost support from feedstock Benzene decreased, affecting production costs.
The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a 2% decrease, reflecting a consistent negative trend. Towards the end of Q3, improved availability of Crude Oil in the international market and increased refinery operations resulted in firm availability of feedstocks and negatively impacted the Aniline production costs. At the same time, the impact of Hurricane Helene resulted in reduced consumption from downstream industries and an increase in domestic stockpiles due to affected supply chain activities.
Conclusively, the market players negatively revised their quotations and overall, the Aniline prices witnessed a 4% decline in Q3 2024 from the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price for Aniline CFR Texas in the USA stood at USD 1500/MT, underscoring the prevailing bearish sentiment in the pricing environment.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the pricing landscape for Aniline in the APAC region has been characterized by a fluctuating pricing environment predominantly negative, characterized by a persistent decline in prices. Several critical factors have contributed to this downward trend, primarily influenced by reduced demand from MDI manufacturers amid sluggish consumption of Polyurethane materials in key downstream industries such as automotive and construction, where the consumption of Polyurethane materials has significantly decreased. This dampening of demand has been exacerbated by sluggish economic conditions, coupled with an oversupply of Aniline in the market, leading to elevated inventory levels. Additionally, the cost support from upstream feedstocks like Benzene has weakened, driven by fluctuations in crude oil prices and decreased demand from downstream value chains, further pressuring Aniline prices. However, towards the end of the quarter, Aniline prices witnessed an inconsiderable increase as the market's dynamics were complicated by supply chain disruptions amid seasonal factors like monsoons and typhoons and geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil imports, leading to variable feedstock availability. Conclusively, from the previous quarter in 2024, prices negligibly fell by notably by 11%, indicating a downward trend. The quarter concluded with Aniline FOB Qingdao prices at USD 1265/MT, underscoring the prevailing negative sentiment in the pricing environment.
Europe
The Aniline pricing in the European market has followed an upward trajectory throughout the third quarter of 2024. The market has been influenced by moderate demand from downstream industries, particularly from Pharma sector and MDI manufacturers, despite weak production rates, with a consistent decline in the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Index. the pharmaceutical sector remained robust, adding upward pressure on prices. However, a downturn in the construction sector moderated demand from the MDI producers, averting sharper price hikes. Supply-side dynamics also played a role, as supply availability was moderately low during summer holidays creating imbalanced demand-supply dynamics, yet demand failed to match this increase, as The Eurozone's construction sector continued its downturn, significantly impacting Aniline consumption. Seasonality played a role as summer holidays resulted in labor shortages and reduced manufacturing rates, impacting supply chains. Additionally, concerns about a potential recession in the US affecting the international crude oil market and refinery operations have led to a shortage of feedstock supplies, impacting Aniline production rates. Towards the end of the quarter, the increased availability of feedstock Benzene supplies, driven by improved refinery operations and Crude Oil availability amid a resumption of Crude Oil supply from Libya in September 2024, negatively impacted the production costs. Conclusively, the quarter concluded with an Aniline FD Hamburg price at USD 1520/MT in Germany, after an overall 6% increase from the last quarter's prices, signifying a stable yet positive pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Aniline market experienced oscillations driven by several key factors. A primary influence was the consistent rise in feedstock Benzene prices, which were affected by variations in crude oil costs and strong demand from derivative industries. This increase in production costs, combined with steady demand from sectors such as pharmaceuticals and polyurethanes, exerted upward pressure on Aniline prices. Additionally, logistical challenges due to weather disruptions and tighter supply chains worsened the situation, making Aniline scarcer and more expensive toward the end of the quarter.
Focusing specifically on the USA, the market showcased pronounced volatility and significant price changes, reflecting an overall bullish trend. Aniline prices in the USA rose by 4% compared to the same quarter last year and by 1% from the previous quarter in 2024. This rise is indicative of seasonal trends where demand for MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) and polyurethane products typically heightens. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter also revealed a 1% increase, aligning with the consistent demand and constrained supply environment.
The latest quarter-ending price for Aniline CFR Louisiana stood at USD 1730/MT, underscoring a positive pricing environment. The strategic interplay of feedstock cost dynamics, logistical constraints, and steady downstream demand has shaped a market characterized by rising prices. As such, the pricing environment for Aniline in Q2 2024 was decidedly positive, reflecting a robust market driven by fundamental supply-demand equilibrium and external economic factors.
APAC
Like the North American region, Aniline prices in the APAC region exhibited a seesawed movement in the second quarter of 2024 amid an interplay of supply and demand dynamics, moderate fluctuations in upstream feedstock costs, and consistent consumption from downstream sectors such as pharmaceuticals and polyurethanes. Despite various global economic factors, including OPEC+ crude oil production cuts and increased demand for fertilizer feedstocks, the Aniline market managed to navigate through without significant disruptions. The resilience in Aniline pricing underscored the capacity of the market to withstand external pressures and maintain equilibrium. Focusing on South Korea, which experienced the most notable price volatility, Aniline prices showed a complex but stable trend. Seasonality and consistent demand from the MDI sector played pivotal roles in this stability. The overall trends were shaped by balanced supply demand and moderate operational rates. Compared to the same quarter last year, there was a significant decrease of 6%, indicating a previous period of higher pricing. From Q1 2024, prices increased by 5%, reflecting a recovery phase. The closing price for Aniline CFR Busan at the end of Q2 2024 was USD 1550/MT, cementing a sentiment of stability within the South Korean market. This pricing environment has largely been stable, neither excessively positive nor negative, allowing for predictable market operations and strategic planning for stakeholders. This steadiness in Aniline prices is a testament to the market's robust mechanisms and ability to adapt to global economic fluctuations without undue volatility.
Europe
Like Asia and North America, the second quarter of 2024 has witnessed fluctuations in Aniline prices across Europe, driven primarily by significant macroeconomic factors and sector-specific variables. A constricted supply of feedstock Benzene, influenced by volatility in upstream Naphtha and Crude Oil prices, coupled with production constraints from labor shortages, has contributed to a challenging production environment. Concurrently, the demand from downstream industries, notably MDI manufacturers, experienced a seasonal dip, further exacerbating the pricing pressures. Amidst firm demand cycles from the Pharma sector, the overall market sentiment remained negative due to these supply-side constraints and moderate downstream offtakes. Focusing on Germany, which recorded the most considerable fluctuations, the pricing environment for Aniline showed a clear downtrend. The seasonality effect, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors, led to lower demand for Polyurethane materials, contributing to a 1% decrease from the previous quarter. Compared to the same period last year, there were no notable changes, indicating a stagnation in market recovery efforts. The second half of the quarter saw a marginally higher price in the latter half. The latest quarter-ending price for Aniline FD Hamburg was USD 1495/MT.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The Aniline price trend exhibited a downward trajectory in the North American market during the first quarter of 2024. Initially, demand from buyers was low due to sluggish market activities during the New Year holidays. Following the holidays, stock availability was robust in the market, aided by improved supply rates from exporters, while offtakes remained moderate from buyers.
During the mid-quarter, Winter storms in the region negatively impacted operating rates in downstream industries, leading to decreased demand for Aniline in end-user sectors. Consequently, orders slightly declined from buyers amidst high freight costs on material imports.
Towards the quarter's end, Aniline prices continued to trend downward in the USA due to firm supplies and a decrease in ocean freight costs as container traffic bypassed the Suez Canal, stabilizing operations and reducing ocean rates on major trade routes. Meanwhile, offtakes were moderate from MDI industries and the Pharma sector. At the quarter's close, Aniline CFR Texas in the USA recorded USD 1655/MT.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2024, Aniline prices exhibited mixed trends in the APAC region. Initially, prices declined due to sluggish demand from downstream MDI manufacturers, attributed to decreased PU foam consumption in the manufacturing sector amidst a slowdown in the furniture market caused by rising raw material costs. Mid-quarter, some manufacturing units in China underwent maintenance shutdowns during the Lunar New Year holidays from February 2nd to February 18th, 2024. Towards the quarter's end, manufacturing activities improved after the holidays, yet offtakes remained sluggish in the Chinese market, leading to price declines. Conversely, prices increased in other regional markets due to limited stock availability and steady demand from buyers, resulting in higher market prices in importing countries. Additionally, by the end of Q1, there was a notable increase in orders from dye and pigment industries for end products during the spring festival celebration in countries like India. Aniline - FOB Qingdao China quotations settled at USD 1410/MT by the end of the first quarter of 2024.
Europe
In the European region, the Aniline market showcased mixed sentiments, and the price trend remain during the first quarter of 2024 when compared with the previous one. Initially, prices decreased due to increased inventory levels in the regional market as international importers faced low supplies due to supply chain disruptions and heightened ship traffic resulting from attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. During the mid-quarter, Aniline demand was low from the downstream industries due to the hike in production costs, as the European energy industry is at odds over energy security amid the US LNG export pause. Simultaneously, the textile industry slowed down in February 2024 due to increased raw material costs and abundant previous stock availability, which negatively impacted consumption from dye manufacturers, and producers again dropped their quotations. Towards the quarter's conclusion, Aniline prices trended upward as the regional manufacturing units grappled with disruptions to production schedules due to a shortage of skilled labour. It resulted in diminished output rates and escalated operational costs. Additionally, global air cargo demand experienced its third consecutive monthly increase in March, driven by the expanding e-commerce sector and disruptions in shipping routes, particularly in the Red Sea region, leading to fluctuations in air freight rates. Consequently, Aniline FD Hamburg quotations in Germany were assessed at USD 1440/MT at the end of the quarter.
