In October 2023, the global market for Vitamin B4 saw a notable decline in prices, driven by reduced demand from end-user industries like pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals, coupled with an excess supply in the market. Notably, persistently high-interest rates, weakened trade activities, and geopolitical tension have also contributed to this downward trend for Vitamin B4. The trading activity in the Vitamin B4 market was relatively subdued, primarily consisting of small orders. Downstream markets cautiously engaged in trading only when necessary, as demand was not particularly robust. The overall market conditions largely followed the expected trend, lacking any notable positive reinforcement, thus suggesting a relatively subdued performance.

In China, the manufacturing sector exhibited a contraction in October, casting uncertainty on the previously optimistic outlook for the world's second-largest economy. The decline in manufacturing production is influenced by seasonal factors related to an eight-day holiday at the beginning of October, but it also signifies weakness in domestic market demand, which subsequently led to a decline in Vitamin B4 prices. Additionally, China reported a drop in exports that was worse than anticipated. The demand for Chinese exports has waned since the Federal Reserve and Central Banks in Europe and Asia initiated interest rate hikes last year to curb inflation at multi-decade highs, contributing to the global decline in Vitamin B4 prices.

In October, there was a slight drop in the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in the United States. It fell from 104.3 in September to 102.6. This places it at the second-lowest level this year, just slightly higher than the 102.5 figure seen in May, as per Conference Board data. The October dip can be attributed to consumers' ongoing concerns about the general price increase, particularly gasoline prices. Additionally, consumers voiced apprehensions about the political climate and the rising interest rates, leading to relatively low consumer confidence in the United States, which in turn exerted downward pressure on Vitamin B4 prices. A similar pricing trend is observed in the German market, influenced by various factors, including subdued consumer sentiments and elevated interest rates. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its record-high interest rates at 4% in October, following ten consecutive hikes, contributing to lower overall market demand for Vitamin B4.

Manufacturing growth in India decelerated for the second consecutive month in October, with reduced expansion in new orders, production, exports, purchasing activity, and inventory levels. This slowdown was primarily driven by the consumer goods sector, which experienced a loss of demand momentum, resulting in the new orders sub-index hitting a one-year low, suggesting a decline in Vitamin B4 prices. In addition, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the repo rate at 6.5 percent in October for the fourth consecutive time, thereby bolstering the subdued domestic demand and resulting in a subsequent decrease in Vitamin B4 prices.

ChemAnalyst anticipates a decline in Vitamin B4 prices in the coming months due to sustained lower demand from end sectors, ongoing high interest rates, and ample supply in the market. Nevertheless, prices might experience a moderate increase at the start of FY24 with the easing of inflationary pressures, maintaining a favorable market for Vitamin B4.