For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, Vitamin B4 prices in the USA displayed significant fluctuations driven by a combination of demand, supply chain disruptions, and economic factors. In October, prices surged due to increased demand from key sectors, a boost in consumer confidence following Federal Reserve rate cuts, and severe supply chain disruptions caused by labor strikes at East and Gulf Coast ports.
November saw continued price increases as demand remained high, fueled by a strong consumer outlook, seasonal preparation, and concerns about labor strikes in January, which led to proactive purchasing. However, in December, Vitamin B4 prices dropped due to a decline in consumer confidence, reduced demand during the holiday season, and rising inflation. Inventory buildup in anticipation of the Chinese Lunar New Year and potential labor strikes ensured a balanced supply, pushing prices down. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding tariffs further dampened market activity, with many buyers opting to wait, contributing to the price decline.
Overall, Q4 witnessed volatility in Vitamin B4 prices, marked by rising demand followed by market caution.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Vitamin B4 prices in China experienced fluctuations, driven by a range of economic and market conditions. In October, prices saw a slight rise, buoyed by China's manufacturing sector's recovery and government stimulus measures. This expansion sparked increased domestic and export demand, further supported by a weaker yuan, which made exports more competitive. November saw a notable price increase, driven by robust factory activity, particularly in export orders, and rising input costs, which manufacturers passed onto consumers. The yuan's depreciation continued to encourage international demand. However, in December, prices fell due to subdued consumer demand and broader economic slowdown. A decrease in both domestic and international orders, especially from major markets like the US and Germany, led to an oversupply of Vitamin B4. In response, suppliers reduced prices to clear excess inventory, resulting in the decline. This Q4 trend reflects a balance between economic recovery-driven price hikes and a year-end dip due to weaker demand.
Europe
In Q4 2024, Vitamin B4 prices in Germany displayed a mixed trend, influenced by a combination of demand and supply-side factors. October saw a slight increase in prices due to improved business morale, boosted by optimism about economic recovery and the European Central Bank’s interest rate cut. Suppliers worked to build inventories ahead of expected Christmas slowdowns, while supply chain disruptions, including port congestion and longer transit times, added upward pressure. November brought further price increases driven by heightened demand from the nutraceutical and healthcare sectors, a proactive inventory buildup for the holiday season, and higher freight rates following General Rate Increases (GRIs) in Asia-Europe shipping. However, the depreciation of the euro added costs for German buyers. In December, prices dropped due to weak demand from key sectors, cautious buying amid economic instability, and ample inventory levels. Additionally, winter weather slowed both consumer spending and logistics, leading to deferred purchasing decisions and a reduction in overall market activity, which contributed to the price decline.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of 2024, the North American Vitamin B4 market displayed a turbulent pricing trend influenced by various factors impacting multiple sectors. The United States, in particular, experienced the most pronounced price fluctuations, resulting in a volatile pricing landscape marked by significant changes throughout the quarter.
Initially, prices fell due to several factors exerting downward pressure on the market. A major influence was the inflation rate, which had soared above 9% but began to decline substantially as the quarter progressed. This reduction in inflation led to lower overall operational costs for businesses, allowing them to decrease Vitamin B4 prices and pass on the savings to consumers. However, as September approached, a shift occurred, and prices began to rise sharply. This increase was driven by a mix of economic and logistical factors. Consumer confidence improved, bolstered by more positive perceptions of the economy and easing inflation, despite ongoing concerns about the labor market. This renewed optimism spurred greater demand for Vitamin B4, placing upward pressure on prices.
In light of these shifting dynamics, market participants proactively worked to enhance their inventories, anticipating a future surge in demand and seeking to mitigate potential supply chain disruptions.
APAC
Throughout Q3 2024, Vitamin B4 pricing in the APAC region displayed a varied trajectory, beginning with an initial decline that transitioned into a recovery by the end of September. During July and August, prices fell primarily due to weak market sentiments. A key factor in this downturn was the decline in new business and orders, driven by changing consumer preferences and intensified competition among manufacturers. This confluence of factors led to diminished demand, prompting companies to adjust their pricing strategies downward to remain competitive. Additionally, the export market exhibited sluggish growth, reaching its slowest pace since April. This lack of export momentum mirrored weak global demand, further reinforcing the downward trend in Vitamin B4 prices. As a result, manufacturers encountered difficulties in maintaining stable pricing levels amid these challenging conditions. However, as the quarter progressed into late September, the landscape shifted. Prices began to rebound, fueled by a noticeable slowdown in the manufacturing sector that followed a period of strong growth. This change indicated that production levels were struggling to keep pace with the rising demand for Vitamin B4. The growing disparity between supply and demand created potential supply constraints, typically resulting in upward pressure on prices.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Vitamin B4 in the European region displayed a mixed trend shaped by several key factors. Initially, prices experienced a decline, primarily due to weaker-than-expected demand in the German market, particularly within the nutraceutical and healthcare sectors. This subdued demand led market participants to adopt a cautious approach, opting to maintain substantial inventory levels to meet current consumption needs in Germany. However, as September approached, a significant shift occurred, with prices beginning to rise. This increase was driven by strong demand from end-user industries and strategic inventory management by companies preparing for potential disruptions. Favorable macroeconomic conditions also contributed to this upward trend. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea complicated matters by disrupting global maritime traffic, resulting in logistical challenges that constrained the supply of Vitamin B4. These supply limitations added further upward pressure on prices as market dynamics evolved. Moreover, improvements in consumer sentiment, especially in Germany, played a crucial role in revitalizing demand and creating a more optimistic market outlook. Despite the various challenges faced by the industry, companies actively worked to enhance their stockpiles in anticipation of potential shipping delays, thereby supporting the upward trend in prices.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, Vitamin B4 (Choline Chloride 60%) pricing in the North America region experienced an overall positive sentiment, marked by an upward trend in prices as the conclusion approached. The quarter was characterized by a convergence of significant factors that collectively influenced market prices. Among these factors, a notable increase in demand from downstream sectors, particularly in the nutraceutical and healthcare industries, played a pivotal role. Market participants anticipated this surge, leading to proactive restocking and inventory buildup, which exerted upward pressure on prices. Furthermore, persistent inflationary pressures and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates contributed to a reduction in consumer purchasing power, indirectly affecting market dynamics and boosting prices as suppliers sought to offset rising operational costs.
Focusing on the USA, which saw the maximum price changes, the overall trend reflected a robust increase in prices. Seasonal demand fluctuations and strategic restocking ahead of anticipated demand spikes contributed to this trend. The correlation between price changes and economic indicators was evident, with inflation and high-interest rates driving a cautious yet upward pricing environment. The price of Vitamin B4 in the USA exhibited a notable increase from the previous quarter, recording a -2% change, while the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter noted a 3% increase. Concluding the quarter, the latest price stood at USD 740/MT CFR Los Angeles.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for Vitamin B4 in the APAC region has been a mix of both positive and negative, driven by an intricate web of factors. Market prices surged especially in July owing to a combination of rising demand and constrained supply. The quarter observed a significant uptrend in market sentiment, fueled by robust economic activities and an increase in consumer spending. The manufacturing sector's recovery played a pivotal role, spurring higher production levels and subsequently escalating the need for Vitamin B4. However, supply-side challenges, such as logistical issues and disruptions in production facilities, exacerbated the situation. Notably, the temporary shutdown of major plants during the quarter further tightened supply, amplifying price hikes.
China, being the epicenter of these shifts, witnessed the most pronounced price changes. The market dynamics in China were heavily influenced by seasonality factors, where heightened activity during peak seasons accentuated demand spikes. The overall trend indicated a robust correlation between rising consumer demand and escalating Vitamin B4 prices. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, there was a notable -3% change, reflecting a period of adjustment and stabilization. However, the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a 3% increase, underscoring the intensifying demand dynamics as the quarter progressed.
Concluding the quarter, the price of Vitamin B4 (Choline Chloride 60%) FOB Shanghai in China stood strong at USD 600/MT, encapsulating the persistent upward trajectory driven by both supply chain constraints and burgeoning demand.
Europe
In Q2 2024, Vitamin B4 (Choline Chloride 60%) pricing in the Europe region exhibited notable fluctuations, influenced by a confluence of market dynamics. This quarter witnessed a predominantly bearish trend, reflecting an unstable pricing environment. Key factors driving these trends included subdued consumer demand amidst persistent inflationary pressures and high-interest rates, which significantly constrained spending in downstream sectors such as nutraceuticals and healthcare. Additionally, the market faced an oversupply scenario as buyers had preemptively stocked inventories to mitigate potential supply chain disruptions associated with the Labor Day holidays in China.
Germany stood out with the most notable price fluctuations. The country saw a decline in prices until May, followed by a sharp and significant increase throughout June. Seasonality did not provide the usual demand uptick, as consumer sentiments remained cautious due to economic uncertainties. The correlation between low consumer spending and abundant supply maintained downward pressure on prices. The quarter saw a -3% change from the previous quarter, emphasizing a continuous negative trajectory in pricing.
Comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, there was a 5% price difference, indicative of fluctuating market sentiments and responses to varying supply-demand dynamics. The quarter concluded with the pricing of Vitamin B4 at USD 690/MT CFR Hamburg in Germany, underscoring a challenging pricing environment driven by macroeconomic challenges and cautious market behaviors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the pricing of Vitamin B4 in the North America region experienced notable fluctuations, reflecting the complex interplay of various factors shaping market conditions. The pricing trend throughout the quarter exhibited a mixed pattern, characterized by shifts in both supply and demand dynamics, alongside external factors influencing the market.
The price trajectory of Vitamin B4 in the region showed increases in January, driven by heightened buying activity in downstream sectors such as nutraceutical and healthcare. Additionally, disruptions at two crucial shipping chokepoints, namely the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal, resulted in increased costs for U.S. retailers, subsequently leading to higher prices for consumers. However, as the quarter progressed, prices declined due to cautious consumer attitudes towards the economy. Factors such as sluggish retail sales and subdued consumer spending contributed to this decline. Persistent inflationary pressures further compounded consumer caution, prompting a conservative approach to finances.
The final quarter's price for Vitamin B4 (Choline Chloride 60%) CFR Los Angeles in the USA was reported as USD 735/MT, reflecting the culmination of these complex market dynamics. Overall, the nuanced analysis highlights the impact of various factors, including consumer behavior, supply chain disruptions, and market conditions, on the pricing dynamics of Vitamin B4 in the North America region during Q1 2024.
Asia Pacific
In the APAC region during Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics for Vitamin B4 displayed a mixed pattern, influenced by several significant factors. Initially, prices saw an uptick as demand surged from both domestic and international markets, putting strain on the supply chain. Market participants responded by offering higher quotations to maximize profits. However, prices experienced a decline in February and March due to weak consumer sentiments. The drop in demand was primarily linked to the closure of numerous businesses during the Spring Festival, a significant holiday period in China. With many companies temporarily shut down, the overall demand for Vitamin B4 decreased, leading to an oversupply in the market. Positive developments, such as decreased input costs for manufacturers, resulted in reduced production expenses, thereby influencing the pricing dynamics of Vitamin B4. Market participants found themselves in possession of substantial inventories in their warehouses, prompting them to actively seek opportunities to offload their stock at discounted rates. Despite these challenges, the final price for Vitamin B4 (Choline Chloride 60%) FOB Shanghai in China at the end of Q1 2024 was USD 590/MT. Overall, the pricing dynamics of Vitamin B4 in the APAC region during Q1 2024 were influenced by a combination of factors, including demand fluctuations, global supply chain disruptions, and economic conditions.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Vitamin B4 in Europe unfolded amidst a complex landscape influenced by various factors. Initially, prices saw an uptick driven by geopolitical tensions, logistical challenges, and constrained inventories. Heightened demand from the healthcare and nutraceutical sectors further contributed to this increase. However, prolonged disruptions in the Red Sea complicated trade routes between Asia and Europe, leading to increased freight costs that impacted the pricing scenario of Vitamin B4, especially in Germany. As the quarter progressed, prices experienced a decline in February and March. This decline was attributed to persistently lackluster performance in new industrial orders, coupled with insufficient domestic demand and a relatively high backlog. Additionally, the central bank's decision to maintain existing interest rates added complexity to the market environment, further straining consumers' purchasing power. In response, market suppliers and traders sought to address excess inventories amidst sluggish domestic demand, navigating through the evolving market landscape. Ultimately, the final price for Vitamin B4 (Choline Chloride 60%) CFR Hamburg in Germany in Q1 2024 was recorded at USD 680/MT. Overall, the pricing dynamics of Vitamin B4 in Europe during this period reflected the interplay of various factors, highlighting the challenges and intricacies of the market.
