In terms of the market trend, different downstream traders and suppliers indicate that Chicago soybean futures will decline for the second session in a row as the first quarter of March 2025 comes to an end. This is due to increasing trade tensions between the United States and major trading partners, including China, weak demand from major importing countries, and the expectation of increased supplies by exporting countries, including South America.

Based on analysts, the decline in soybean prices can be supported by a mix of geopolitical, economic, and market-driven factors. The ongoing U.S.-China trade war continues to act as a major source of pressure, with China placing retaliatory tariffs on multiple American commodities, such as soybeans and soybean oil. Since China imports most U.S. soybeans and soybean oil, these trade restrictions could lead to declining exports, creating fears of surplus and stimulating bearish feelings in both the domestic and the globle market.

In addition, persistent trade tensions are expected to generate uncertainty for both farmers and exporters. "With China diverting its soybean and soybean oil buying to other edible oils or alternative sources like Brazil and Argentina, U.S. soybean and soybean oil prices are under downward pressure," a market analyst stated.

Apart from trade tensions, poor global demand for American soybeans and soybean oil could also push the export price lower, especially for American soybean oil. Before slowing imports in importing countries preferring cheaper Brazilian and Argentine supplies, U.S. soybean oil exports are bound to take a beating. Such a scenario could lead to greater-than-anticipated inventories of soybean oil and dampen trading sentiments.

In addition, fueling these worries is a projected increase in Brazilian soybean production. The South American nation is expected to produce a record of almost 169 million metric tons of soybeans during the 2024-25 marketing year, an estimated increase of 10.5% compared to the last year. Different downstream merchants indicate that as supplies rise in Brazil, it could be tougher for U.S. producers to get good export sales of soybean oil since there could be more competition within the international soybean and soybean oil market.

Consequently, due to these bearish signals, speculators and traders have started selling off their soybean and soybean oil contracts, once again pushing down prices. However this speculative selling is showing market sentiment that the soybean futures and soybean oil futures will also continue to falter in the short term in upcoming months.

Due to this, market participants and traders continue to be vigilant, keeping a keen eye on trade situations, international economic progress, supply and demand patterns, and climatic conditions to a great extent. While the world supply continues to grow and demand fails to keep up with it, soybean and soybean oil markets have an uncertain future. At least for now, farmers, traders, and industry participants will be observing the situation keenly, expecting the onset of stability in the days ahead.