During the third week of February 2025, soda ash prices in Asia and the United States experienced varied trends due to fluctuating supply and demand dynamics. The Chinese market faced persistent weaknesses, with tepid demand from the glass sector weighing on price movements. In contrast, the US market remained relatively firm despite external pressures and shifting global trade policies.

In Asia, soda ash prices remained largely stagnant as weak fundamentals continued to exert downward pressure. The glass sector, a key consumer of soda ash, recorded a price decline. The sluggish downstream demand was exacerbated by stable production levels, leading to inventory accumulation and a weak trading atmosphere. Although there were expectations of maintenance shutdowns, the on-site production utilization rate remained high, limiting any potential supply-side support for price increases.

From a fundamental perspective, weekly soda ash production remained unchanged. Consumption has shown signs of a mild rebound, with soda ash demand growing since December 2024 marginally. However, corporate inventories for heavy soda ash in the week of February 21st highlighted the continued imbalance between supply and demand. While some regional price hikes were observed, the broader market remained under pressure due to weak demand for heavy soda ash and ongoing supply-side constraints.

In the United States, soda ash prices held steady despite uncertainty surrounding trade policies and potential tariff adjustments. Recent geopolitical developments, including shifting US trade policies, have created concerns over import costs and raw material supply chains. Tariff discussions targeting imports from China, Mexico, and Canada have added volatility to the market, particularly in the glass industry, which relies heavily on soda ash as a raw material. Although freight costs from Asia to the US West and East Coasts declined slightly in early February, upcoming tariff changes and stockpiling efforts by US producers could exert upward pressure on soda ash prices in the near term. Additionally, rising fuel prices and retaliatory energy tariffs from Canada have further complicated market sentiment, impacting logistics costs and overall soda ash pricing strategies for industrial consumers.

As per ChemAnalyst, the soda ash market in Asia is expected to remain stagnant in the short term, with prices largely dependent on downstream demand recovery. While heavy soda ash demand is projected to improve, the market remains in a supply-demand stalemate, limiting significant price movements. In the US, the impact of evolving trade policies will play a crucial role in determining price trends, with potential tariff hikes likely to influence import costs.