For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the quarter ending September 2024, the North American Soda Ash market experienced a significant decline in prices, with notable influences such as weakening demand both domestically and in exports. The subdued downstream glass industry demand, coupled with ample supply and high inventory levels, contributed to the downward Soda Ash price trend during this time frame.
The third quarter exhibited the challenging market conditions in the Soda Ash market. Within the USA, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the quarter recorded a 14% decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a continued negative trajectory. The first half of the third quarter compared to the second half showed an 11.3% drop, highlighting the sustained downward movement in the Soda Ash pricing.
The latest quarter-ending price for Soda Ash Dense Ex-Works Wyoming in the USA stood at USD 270/MT, signifying the prevailing negative pricing environment. Overall, the Soda Ash pricing landscape has been consistently decreasing, reflecting a challenging market scenario with limited signs of improvement.
Asia
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, the Soda Ash market in the APAC region experienced a significant decline in prices amid lowered import costs and increased supplies. This downward trend was mainly influenced by oversupply, weak demand, and reduced consumption in downstream industries such as glass manufacturing. The Soda Ash market faced challenges due to high inventory levels, production capacity expansion, and a lack of demand recovery. In Japan, the market exhibited the most significant price changes during the quarter ending September 2024. Prices decreased by 6% compared to the previous quarter, with a notable 14.6% drop between the first and second halves of the third quarter of 2024. This price decline was driven by subdued demand, sluggish shipments, and overall market uncertainty. The latest quarter-ending price for Soda Ash Dense CFR Tokyo in Japan was recorded at USD 264/MT, reflecting the negative pricing sentiment prevailing in the market. Overall, the pricing environment in Japan and the APAC region has been consistently negative, with prices on a downward trajectory due to weak market fundamentals and lackluster demand.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, the European Soda Ash market experienced stability in price fluctuations, largely influenced by supply constraints and energy cost pressures. This increase was driven by a combination of moderate demand from the downstream glass industry and tight supplies across the Eurozone. Supply-side challenges played a key role in driving prices higher. The shutdown of CIECH S.A.'s production facility in Germany during the first week of September 2024 significantly tightened the supply chain. Throughout the quarter, the downstream glass industry maintained stable demand, supporting price stability during periods of market imbalance. However, weak fundamentals in the export sector and ongoing supply pressures indicate that the Soda Ash market will face continued challenges in the near term. By the end of September, prices for both Soda Ash Light and Soda Ash Dense remained unchanged, with Soda Ash Dense priced at USD 357/MT, FOB Stassfurt. In summary, while Soda Ash prices saw temporary upward movements during Q3 2024, the overall market remained relatively stable, supported by steady downstream demand and constrained supply. Nonetheless, future price dynamics will depend heavily on energy costs, transportation challenges, and production rates across Europe.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a notable decline in Soda Ash prices across the North American region. This decrease was driven by several significant factors, including ample stock availability, subdued demand from the glass industry, and logistical improvements that facilitated smoother supply chains.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions from the previous quarters began to ease, leading to an oversupply condition in the market. Producers adjusted their manufacturing rates in response to mounting inventories, further contributing to the downward price pressure. The overall trend reflected a persistent decline, driven by lower downstream demand primarily from the glass and automotive sectors, which faced challenges such as reduced procurement and operational cutbacks. Seasonality played a crucial role, with the summer season typically bringing reduced demand for certain industrial applications.
Within this quarter, the price comparison between the first and second half revealed a substantial -9% shift, emphasizing the continuous downward trend. By the end of Q2 2024, the price of Soda Ash Dense had settled at USD 337/MT Ex-Works Wyoming, reflecting a predominantly negative pricing environment. This sustained decline highlights the influence of excessive supply and tepid demand on the market dynamics, creating a stable yet bearish sentiment in the Soda Ash pricing landscape.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Soda Ash market in the APAC region experienced an upward pricing movement. This quarter, Soda Ash prices were significantly influenced by a confluence of factors, including constrained supplies, heightened production costs, and increasing freight charges. The production disruptions in major exporting countries, notably due to maintenance shutdowns and geopolitical tensions, further exacerbated supply shortages. Additionally, rising natural gas and raw material prices contributed to escalating production costs, which were subsequently passed on to buyers. Freight rates surged due to limited container availability, port congestion, and increased fuel costs, adding additional upward pressure on prices. Focusing on Japan, the market saw the most significant price changes, reflecting an overall increasing pricing sentiment. The upward trend was marked by high volatility, correlated with seasonal demand fluctuations and economic recovery post-pandemic. The second half of Q2 displayed a positive recovery, with prices rising by 2% compared to the first half. This resurgence mainly stemmed from improved downstream demand in the glass and automotive industries and strategic stockpiling ahead of anticipated further price hikes. The quarter closed with the price of Soda Ash Dense at USD 361/MT CFR Tokyo, underscoring a generally stable yet cautiously optimistic market environment.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Soda Ash market in Europe experienced a notable downturn, driven by a combination of weak demand, ample stock levels, and heightened production costs stemming from elevated energy prices. The overarching sentiment was one of decreasing prices, reflective of a challenging economic environment and sluggish downstream consumption, particularly within the glass manufacturing sector. The glass industry, a major consumer of Soda Ash, faced production declines due to high operational costs and an economic climate that tempered market activities.
Germany, in particular, observed the most significant price fluctuations. The country's Soda Ash market grappled with muted demand amid ongoing destocking efforts and competitive pressures, which were compounded by logistical disruptions from severe weather events and labor strikes. The seasonal impact, with lower summer demand, further accentuated this decline, contributing to a 6% decrease in prices between the first and second halves of the quarter. The quarter culminated with the price of Soda Ash Dense at USD 330/MT, FOB Stassfurt, underscoring a consistent downward trend. Overall, the pricing environment for Soda Ash in Europe during this quarter remained decidedly negative, driven primarily by external economic factors and internal market dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American Soda Ash market showed stability in terms of pricing. The market remained well-balanced, with a steady supply and moderate demand from the downstream glass industry.
However, there were some challenges due to the economic conditions in the region, which led to cautious procurement sentiments among buyers. Additionally, the limited demand in the downstream segments had a slight impact on Soda Ash prices. In the USA market, there was a sense of stability, with consistent demand from the downstream glass industry and steady production rates. Prices remained relatively unchanged compared to the previous quarter, as regional inquiries improved and downstream operational activities picked up. However, compared to the same quarter in the previous year, prices experienced a slight decrease of 3%. The latest price of Soda Ash Light Ex-Works Wyoming in the USA during Q1 2024 stood at USD 354/MT.
Furthermore, the market experienced a few temporary shutdowns, which caused some disruptions in the supply chain. Overall, the Soda Ash market in North America during Q1 2024 demonstrated a balanced supply and demand dynamic, with limited stock availability and cautious procurement sentiments due to the ongoing economic conditions in the region. This resulted in stable pricing trends for Soda Ash in the market.
APAC
The first quarter of 2024 presented new challenges for the Soda Ash market in the APAC region. The market continued to face the repercussions of the previous quarter, with factors such as decreased demand from the glass manufacturing industry and an oversupply of Soda Ash impacting prices and market dynamics. The primary factor affecting the market was the ongoing slowdown in the construction sector, which resulted in a decrease in demand for Soda Ash from the glass industry. Additionally, automotive glass production also experienced a decline, further contributing to the decrease in demand. The market also struggled with high inventory levels, as an oversupply of Soda Ash exerted downward pressure on prices. Logistical challenges in the global shipping industry added to the market's difficulties. Delays in the delivery of Soda Ash and increased freight costs disrupted the supply chain and further impacted the market. In South Korea specifically, the Soda Ash market saw a decline in prices during the first quarter of 2024. This was primarily due to weak demand from the glass industry and the presence of high inventory levels. The depreciation of the South Korean Won against the US dollar also played a role in the decline in prices. The country also faced challenges in maintaining spot production and sales intensity, exacerbated by a sharp decline in raw material prices. Overall, the trend for Soda Ash prices in South Korea during this quarter remained bearish, with a surplus supply and moderate demand. Prices continued to decline compared to the previous quarter, influenced by limited regional supplies and a decrease in downstream glass manufacturing demand. By the end of the quarter, the price for Soda ash-dense CFR Busan in South Korea stood at USD 334/MT.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2024, the Soda Ash market faced significant challenges, primarily driven by subdued demand from the downstream glass manufacturing sector influenced by a negative outlook from China, a key global consumer. Despite a decrease in inflation in Europe to 2.6% in February from its peak of 10.6% in October 2022, concerns persisted about the slow progress towards the ECB's inflation goal due to a consistent range of 2% to 3% over the past five months. This global context, alongside specific challenges faced by major players like BASF in Germany, prompted strategic decisions such as cost-cutting measures to navigate the economic headwinds. In January 2024, Soda Ash prices in the German market experienced a downward trend due to low demand from the downstream glass manufacturing industry and eased production costs, alongside slightly decreased energy values. Germany, the primary exporting country for Soda Ash, grappled with persistent challenges, including diminished foreign and domestic demand, exacerbated by a budget crisis triggering subsidy cuts and unsettling the government coalition. Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea added to trade disruptions, heightening concerns for Germany's export industry. Additionally, in January, energy prices in the eurozone decreased by 6.3%, indicating some relief from inflationary cost pressures on manufacturers and traders. However, a decline in consumption by the downstream glass industry in the Eurozone significantly affected Soda Ash prices. Bucher Emhart Glass, a leading container glass forming group, reported weakening market demand in the Eurozone, indicating subdued regional Soda Ash demand during the first half of the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American Soda Ash market witnessed an overall bullish situation in Q4 of 2023. The supply of Soda Ash was moderate, with manufacturers facing limited availability amid reduced production run rates.
The downstream demand for Soda Ash was moderate to high, with the glass manufacturing segment showing marginal momentum in the production activities. High input costs and limited stock availability helped drive the prices up. The Soda Ash industry experienced a consistent recovery in the downstream automotive glass sector, thanks to limited stock availability and the increase in new regional orders following the resolution of the UAW automaker's strike. Additionally, the resilience of the US economy, fueled by higher wages in a tight labor market, has overshadowed recession concerns and contributed to enhanced consumer confidence in downstream businesses.
In December 2023, the Soda Ash prices saw a bearish trend, with a recent dip amidst the slow movement of downstream glass industry consumption and adequate availability of inventories attributed to the decline. The destocking sentiments among the market players also weighed on the price momentum. The latest price of Soda Ash Light Ex-Works Wyoming in the USA for Q4 of 2023 was USD 346/MT.
APAC
The fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed no significant changes in the Soda Ash prices in the Asia-Pacific region. Three key factors influenced the market dynamics during this period. Firstly, the limited supply of Soda Ash due to production cutbacks in various countries, particularly China, had a major impact on prices. This was driven by environmental protection measures and production constraints faced by manufacturers. Secondly, the downstream demand in the glass industry played a crucial role in elevating the prices of Soda Ash in the second half of the quarter. The need-based demand in the glass sector and overall economic recovery contributed to the bullish market sentiment. Lastly, the overall market situation varied across countries. South Korea experienced a bullish market with low supply levels, primarily due to limited Soda Ash supplies from China. This resulted in higher prices in the country compared to the previous quarter. The price of Soda Ash Dense CFR Busan in South Korea at the end of the quarter was USD 461/MT. It is important to note that the price in the current quarter remained relatively stable with a 2% decrease compared to the previous quarter. Additionally, there was no significant price difference between the first and second halves of the quarter. Overall, the Soda Ash market in the Asia-Pacific region witnessed fluctuations in prices due to supply limitations and an increase in the demand from the downstream glass industry.
Europe
The fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed a significant surge in Soda Ash prices in Europe. Firstly, there was a moderate to high demand for Soda Ash in the downstream glass segment, driven by increasing automotive offtakes across the region contributing to bullish market sentiments. Secondly, supply constraints played a role in influencing prices. Low supply, coupled with bottlenecks in inventory availability, put upward pressure on the prices of Soda Ash. Additionally, high electricity prices further exacerbated the supply situation, leading to a tight market. In terms of specific country analysis, Belgium experienced the most significant price changes during the quarter. The Soda Ash prices in Belgium were forecasted to decline in December 2023, mainly due to a pause in purchasing sentiments. However, the overall trend in Belgium for the quarter remained bullish, with low supply and strong demand driving the market. It is noteworthy that the price of Soda Ash in Belgium during the fourth quarter of 2023 was USD 425 per metric ton (MT) for Soda Ash Light CFR Antwerp. This represents a 13% increase compared to the previous quarter and a 9% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. Conclusively, the fourth quarter of 2023 saw an upward price trend in the Soda Ash market in Europe, along with the demand-supply dynamics, electricity prices, and specific country trends.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The Soda Ash prices exhibited an upsurge in the quarter ending September 2023 in the North American region, owing to the escalating international demand amidst rising consumption in the glass industry. Moreover, the rising uncertainties in the production run rates along with supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Idalia, and as a ripple effect, limited the availability of stocks in the middle of the quarter. Moreover, the export prices of Soda Ash in the USA were impacted by the rise in output costs amidst high energy prices. Likewise, an improvement in international and domestic offers this week prompted the Soda Ash market bullishness in the US market. Therefore, the Soda Ash market players experienced a shortage of inventories to fulfill the existing offers. From the demand perspective, the Soda Ash price dynamics gained strength in the US market as a result of elevating glass consumption in the nation’s automotive industry since the start of August 2023. Thus, the average month-on-month price of Soda Ash light was quoted at USD 33/MT Ex-Works Wyoming (USA) at the termination of the Q3.
Asia
In Asia, the prices of Soda Ash surged in the September 2023 ending quarter, owing to the elevation in the international offers coupled with the robust demand in the glass production industry. The inclination in the regional demand is expected to keep the export prices of Soda Ash on the northward side in October as well. Apart from the export prices, the domestic production in the downstream glass manufacturing industry elevated amidst rising Chinese glass industry offtakes in the building sector along with the automotive industry prompting inclination in the Soda Ash demand fundamentals this month. Meanwhile, some of the merchants across the nation had reduced production run rates ahead of the Golden Week Holiday in China in the H1 of September 2023. Hence, the last price increase in September 2023 has resulted from the limited supply in line with the improving downstream demand fundamentals. Additionally, the overall rise in the Soda Ash price trajectory has resulted from the supply limitation since August 2023 amid typhoons in the country followed by the holiday season in China during Q3.
Europe
The European market saw a notable increase in Soda Ash prices during the Quarter ending September 2023, driven by growing uncertainty surrounding production rates in the Chlor Alkali industry, which had a cautious impact on Soda Ash market players as well. Concerns about reduced demand in the glass industry segment among market participants were overshadowed by supply reductions within the Eurozone. Furthermore, industrial producer prices in August 2023 saw a 0.6% increase and remained stable in September 2023, reflecting a steady state of inflationary pressures in the regional market according to data from the Eurostat Commission. During August 2023, in Germany, Soda Ash prices gained upward momentum as the regional participants slowly came back from their extended summer vacations and chose to cautiously engage in pre-purchasing activities for the month ahead. The forthcoming weeks are expected to be more affected by declining production rates than by low demand. Consequently, the recent upswing in Soda Ash prices in Europe in Q3 was governed by the limited supplies and increase in international and regional offers including Belgium and other European countries amidst expansion in the automotive industry sales volume.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
At the start of the 2nd Quarter, prices of Soda Ash in the North American market were stable due to unchanged demand from the glass industry. However, bearish market sentiments were observed as exports continued to decline amidst surging interest rates due to high inflation, which compelled manufacturers to reduce operational activities as input buying activities dropped. Supply remained low due to reduced production and average operation rates, which was in line with the low demand due to a depression in the buying sentiments of domestic consumers and a fall in the export demand, further bolstering price stabilization. Towards the end of April, prices witnessed a decline as a consequence of reduced profits and lower sales amongst produced amidst challenging economic disruptions, in addition to the downstream glass industry, which faced multiple challenges due to inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions. Towards the end of May 2023, production levels increased due to subsidized energy costs as consumption rates steadily revived in the country. However, challenges in logistics and supply chain prompted the surge of prices in June 2023. Towards the end of 2nd Quarter, prices depreciated due to low consumption from the downstream industries, high-interest rates, and insufficient economic rebound. Prices saw stability in April, followed by an appreciation of more than 8% in May 2023, followed by a depreciation of 2% in June.
APAC
Soda Ash prices in the Asian market witnessed a decline due to an oversupplied market due to lower downstream demand and ample inventories. Supply remained moderate as constraints eased and freight charges fell. However, demand remained low due to the country's sluggish economic growth. Soda Ash prices further declined at marginal levels due to consistent supplies from the USA. However, overvalued energy costs due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict kept the price trend buoyed. Prices of Soda Ash saw a depreciation of 4.1% in April, followed by a further depreciation of 8.3% in May, towards the end of the 2nd Quarter. This resulted in an oversupplied market as domestic sales decreased and export sales fell continuously. The supply, however, remained moderate to high because of increased manufacturing activities, leading to an improved supply chain and material availability, further influencing the commodity price. The demand remained low due to a contraction in export orders from overseas and the impact of the Labour Day Holidays in China. In the middle of the second quarter, the price slightly decreased as the glass manufacturing industry showed signs of improvement. The final price trend of Soda Ash was supported by sufficient domestic supplies, reduced energy prices, and increased output, along with a decline in international and domestic purchasing activities and lower production costs, resulting in rising inventory levels.
Europe
The European market experienced a steep decline in the prices of Soda Ash as traders witnessed an oversupplied market, for which the primary reason was attributed to low demand from the downstream industries. Supply levels remained moderate to high, although worker strikes at the port caused a slight increment in freight charges. Demand remained at an all-time low due to sluggish economic recovery and low demand from downstream industries, including the Glass manufacturing industry. In May 2023, Soda Ash prices underwent a depreciation owing to weakened downstream demand and oversupply. The recession in the downstream sector resulted in a decline in new orders from the domestic market. Although a slight appreciation of 0.7% in prices occurred in April, they later plummeted by 10% in May. The supply of Soda Ash remained moderate to high as energy cost reductions bolstered production, while demand remained low. Market conditions and the interplay of supply and demand continue to influence commodity prices, making them subject to fluctuations in response to dynamic economic factors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
Soda Ash prices witnessed a decline in the first quarter of 2023, primarily due to reduced new orders from downstream sectors such as glass manufacturing and other competitive industries. According to the market Analysis, the global economic slowdown and supply disruptions have substantially obstructed the international market for the commodity. Additionally, international offers were also restricted by weak consumer demand in the face of piled-up stocks amidst persistent inflation across the globe. As a result, Soda Ash prices decreased by about 3% in the first Quarter of 2023. The business activity remained at a slow pace towards the end of Q1 of 2023, driven by the slowed-down operational activities in the downstream sector amidst higher interest rates and modest economic growth.
APAC
The moderate new orders and uncertainties in the supplies of Soda Ash in the Asian market at the termination of the quarter ending March 2023 caused mixed market sentiments for Soda Ash. The overall price trend of Soda Ash prices showed an upward trajectory as a result of reduced inflationary pressure after the fading impact of COVID market-related disruptions and progressively rising demand in the glass manufacturing industry in China. In the first Quarter of 2023, the final Soda Ash prices in the APAC region have been influenced by the tightness in the domestic supplies due to the spring festival holidays at the start of the quarter and high input cost pressure in the regional market.
Europe
The Soda Ash market in Europe has been affected by uncertainties in the market related to industrial worker strikes and crippled operations in the region. The inflationary pressures led to tighter consumer budgets and a slowdown in the European economy. The Soda Ash showed an overall southward price trend in the Q1 of 2023. Moreover, the decline in the Soda Ash prices, also caused by the muted offers from the downstream glass industry, amidst minimal confidence in the automotive sector of the European region and postponed overseas purchase orders in the face of an oversupplied market. Conclusively, the Soda Ash market in Europe faced significant disruptions in the first Quarter of 2023, including the widening of the demand-supply gap.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
The market for Soda Ash witnessed a downward trend in the Quarter ending December 2022 in North America. The USA's Soda Ash price decline is supported by the muted domestic offers from the downstream glass manufacturing sector and lower export and import prices this Quarter. Meanwhile, an upsurge in energy costs due to the upcoming winter season consumption has led to a slump in downstream production activities amid high pressure on the input costs. In addition, plunging offtakes resulted in the Shutdown of the primary Chlor Alkali-producing chemical plant Covestro at the end of this year in Texas in the regional market. The price of Soda Ash light was quoted at USD 280/MT Ex-Works Wyoming (USA) in December 2022.
APAC
The Soda Ash market showed mixed sentiments by rising in December 2022 in the last Quarter of 2022. The ease in October and November in the Soda Ash prices was supported by the weak downstream offtakes in the domestic market and ample supplies. Downstream production activities have deteriorated in the Chinese market amid Covid curbs and lower consumer confidence. Adequate stock availability and a wait-and-see buying attitude negatively impacted the prices of Soda Ash in Asia. Meanwhile, high inflation resulted in the depreciation of the Chinese and South Korean currencies against the US dollar, which also caused output pressure on Soda Ash in Asia. In December 2022, the commodity price rose due to a rebound in demand from the glass manufacturing industry with increasing offers in solar panel production. Therefore, the price of Soda Ash was assessed at USD 394/MT FOB Lianyungang (China) in December 2022.
Europe
Soda Ash has shown a plunging pricing trend in the European market for Q4 of 2022. In Germany, weak downstream glass manufacturing demand and high input costs led to output pressure on the Soda Ash prices at the end of Quarter 4 of 2022. The European energy crisis has led to an escalation in energy prices, diminishing downstream production activities in the European region. Moreover, the rising market uncertainties and lower export offers for the product in this Quarter also impacted the pricing dynamics of Soda Ash in Europe. The price of Soda Ash Light was assessed at USD 437/MT FOB Stassfurt (Germany) in December 2022.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The market for Soda Ash witnessed an upward trend during September ending in North America. In September, the USA's Soda Ash prices elevated significantly, backed by the increasing domestic offers from the downstream automotive glass manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, an upsurge in energy costs amidst high demand and the upcoming winter season has led to northward pressure on the input costs for commodity production in this Quarter. In addition, the declaration of Shutdown in the primary Chlor Alkali producing chemical plant Olin at the end of this year in Texas resulted in Bullish buying sentiments for Soda Ash in the regional market.
APAC
The Soda Ash market showed an overall steady trend in Q3 of 2022. The price trend of Soda Ash showed stability in the price momentum in the South Korean market because of the supply chain disruptions between China and South Korea. Production activities have deteriorated in the Chinese market and, as a ripple effect, caused a shortage of inventories. Insufficient availability of inventories conclusively impacted the pricing dynamics of Soda Ash in Asia. Meanwhile, the significant rise in energy values and the high inflation rate are considered factors for the surge in the pricing dynamics of the commodity. Meanwhile, high inflation resulted in the depreciation of the Chinese and South Korean currencies against the US dollar, which also caused cost pressure on Soda Ash in Asia.
Europe
Soda Ash demonstrated a stable pricing trend in the European market for Q3 2022. In Germany, weak downstream demand and high input costs led to output pressure on the Soda Ash prices at the termination of Quarter 3 of 2022. The high inflation rate and escalating energy prices due to the War resulted in northward pricing dynamics of Soda Ash in the European region. Moreover, a cut in the Russian supplies of Natural gas and a fall in the Rhine River levels amidst the hot season elevated the market uncertainties for the product in this Quarter. Meanwhile, the European currency (Euro) depreciation against the US dollar caused cost pressure on the Soda Ash prices.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The market value of Soda Ash fluctuated in the North American market during the second quarter of 2022. Though there was a significant drop in the Soda ash price value during April, the market remained nearly stagnant. Market perceptions of soda ash changed within a stable to constrained range as supply met local demand well. Due to sufficient product supply, prices for soda ash were least influenced even though there was a little increase in import inquiries because of favorable demand in the detergent and glass industries. Altogether, after April, the supply and demand dynamics changed marginally, showcasing only borderline changes in soda ash market sentiments.
APAC
Throughout the second quarter of 2022, Soda Ash's market worth in the Asia-Pacific region fluctuated. Even if the price of soda ash decreased significantly in April, the market stayed unchanged. As local demand and supply matched each other well, market perceptions of soda ash fluctuated within a stable to a limited range. Prices for soda ash were not significantly affected by the product's availability, despite a bit rise in import enquiries because of favourable demand in the detergent and glass industries. Overall, following April, supply and demand dynamics altered very slightly, revealing only minimal shifts in the market sentiment for soda ash.
Europe
The value of the European market for Soda Ash changed over the second quarter of 2022. Even though the price of soda ash sharply dropped in April, the market generally remained steady. The local market's perceptions of soda ash fluctuated within a stable and constrained range because local demand and supply matched well. Despite a little increase in import inquiries due to favourable demand in the detergent and glass industries, the soda ash supply had little impact on prices. Overall, supply and demand dynamics changed very minimally after April, indicating only minor changes in market sentiment for soda ash.
For the Quarter ending March 2022
North America
Soda Ash prices witnessed a significant rise throughout the Q1 of 2022 in North America amidst the appreciable offtakes from the downstream segments such as figured glasses, automotive, construction and cleaning sectors in USA. Rise in Soda Ash prices resulted due to a steep rise in demand from glass and construction segment due to the active pick-up in the domestic market. Domestic manufacturers implemented consistent positive revisions in Soda ash price in the near term as they had no choice but to pass on the additional cost down the value chain to secure their margins. The price of Soda Ash Light was assessed at USD 304/MT on an Ex-Works Wyoming basis.
Asia Pacific
The Asia Pacific Soda Ash market displayed an upward trend in Q1 of 2022 caused by a shortage of supply, first due to the resurfacing of COVID 19 cases in East Asia, second, due to the Chinese government’s winter air pollution control norms that restricted production rates till the tail end of February and finally due to the onset of war in Eastern Europe and the consequent ban on Russian Oil and Gas that led to a sharp rises in Energy prices in APAC region. Soda Ash manufacturers in China have increased their operating rates. Meanwhile, major Soda Ash manufacturers were undergoing maintenance turnarounds in February. Planned turnarounds at Zhouguan Chemicals and Jiangsu Shilian Chemicals in the month of February adversely impacted Soda Ash's supply in China and the international market. Additionally, a resurgence of Covid 19 had also resulted in production cuts under zero covid policy in China in the month of March.
Europe
Soda Ash prices in Europe experienced a hike because of rise in production cost in the European market as manufacturers were compelled to pass on the excess cost of production to the downstream segments in response to soaring energy prices since the last week of February with the onset of war between Russia and Ukraine. A ban on Russian oil and gas by EU nations led to energy costs skyrocketing in the month of March. The prices of dense Soda Ash and light soda ash in Germany were assessed at USD 507/MT and USD 476 MT in the month of March respectively, on an FOB Hamburg basis. Land freight costs have seen a sudden spike in the aftermath of the war due to increase in fuel prices adding to the woes of downstream paper & pulp, and food industries.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
Market sentiments of Soda Ash fluctuated in a stable to narrow range with supply successfully catering to the regional demand. Even though there was a marginal rise in import enquiries for Soda Ash due to favorable demand in the detergent and glass industry, but due to sufficient availability of the product, its prices were least affected. Soda Ash Dense prices in November-December period were assessed near USD 170 per MT Ex-Works Wyoming. In December, Sisecam, a Turkish Glass manufacturing company announced the acquisition of 60% Soda Ash business of Ciner Group in USA.
Asia
In the first half of the quarter ending December, Soda Ash prices in China witnessed a steep climb following the restricted production activities in compliance dual control policy. As the economies recovered substantially in the quarter, the effect of tight supply was viably visible in the regional market. Amidst favourable demand due to the festive season and rise in salt prices, prices of Soda Ash in India soared for cleaning and construction applications. However, towards the end of the quarter, normalcy in the operating rates and the year end slowdown narrowed the demand and supply gap which eventually caused a gradual yet consistent drop in prices throughout December. Soda Ash Light values in India in the quarter ending December fluctuated in the range USD 341-USD 350 per MT Ex-Chennai. While in China, Soda Ash prices remained rangebound between USD 450-USD per MT FOB Lianyuangang.
Europe
Soda Ash price in Europe fluctuated in a stable to firm range following steady demand from downstream detergent and construction industry. Reduced operating rates due to the climatic factors and high energy prices in early Q4 positively affected Soda Ash prices in Europe. Availability marginally increased in December, with increase in operating rates in some of the plants. Traders maintained consistent purchasing amidst favorable demand. Light Soda Ash prices were assessed around USD 300 per MT FOB Stassfurt (Germany) in December.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
After the occurrence of the climate calamities in the US Gulf region, the prices of Soda Ash witnessed a steep rise in the domestic market backed by high demand in Q3 2021. US-based Ciner Resources, the world’s largest natural soda ash producer from Trona ore, Wyoming observed that its Q2 sales were increased on the back of the healthy economic recovery in the USA. The market experienced balanced supply and demand fundamentals throughout the 3rd quarter, however many market participants reported that the Soda Ash market has re-shifted balance due to the growing demand and increasing cost of raw materials. The ex-works prices observed a consistent surge and settled at USD 190/MT in September.
Asia Pacific
During the third quarter of 2021, the Soda Ash market in the Asia Pacific region experienced an upward trajectory backed by the cost support of the upstream feedstock Caustic Soda. The prices of raw materials in the Chinese domestic market constantly observed an uptrend due to the high freight costs and shortages of containers which further impacted the supply of Soda ash in China. The demand for Soda Ash is highly driven by rising construction activities in the Asia-Pacific region. In India, EXW prices of Soda Ash grew significantly from USD 255/MT to USD 293/MT within the quarter. The demand rose at an exponential pace in China and India from the downstream industries including construction, glass, paper, textiles, etc. in Q3 2021.
Europe
In Europe, the prices of Soda Ash observed an uptrend followed by the exorbitant cost of raw material and disrupted logistics. Sudden increment in the prices of energy affected the overall production cost of Soda Ash in the region during Q3. Moreover, the mixed price trend of raw materials led to very thin margin for regional manufacturers. Demand remained firm from the downstream glass and detergent industry in Q3 2021. Inflationary pressure due to the global pandemic further affected the overall price trend of Soda Ash. The price of Soda Ash (Light) in Germany was assessed at USD 266/MT FOB Stassfurt in September 2021.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
After the setback from the polar winter storm in the US Gulf region which knocked out three fourth of the chlor-alkali production, majority of operations have been restored as 70% of the key feedstock Caustic Soda facilities have resumed manufacturing in the first half of the quarter. However, the supply-demand imbalance was witnessed in the later half. It was observed that the US chlor-alkali capacity fell by 6% on m-o-m basis in May, amidst the operational issues due to equipment failure at Formosa facility in Westlake Texas in early June. As a ripple effect ANSAC hiked the prices of the exported Soda Ash by USD 25 per tonne in June.
Asia Pacific
In China, Soda Ash market outlook strengthened amidst the cost support of the key feedstock Caustic Soda. Feedstock prices in the Chinese domestic market constantly observed an uptrend due to the rising cost pressure on raw material in China. As a ripple effect, prices observed a consistent surge with FOB Shanghai discussions settling at USD 261 per tonne. The supply outlook in China remained influenced by the joint impact of curtailed synthetic Soda Ash production, and higher shipping freight charges. However, export to India declined in April and May period due to a decline in demand from Covid second wave.
Europe
According to the major European producer in Belgium “demand recovered across the region after the ease in restrictions imposed amidst the second COVID wave in Europe.” Demand outlook revived effectively compared to the previous quarter as the mass vaccination drive amplified the market movement, leading to better commercial and industrial activities. Whereas the pricing trend remained buoyed in the European region with a combined impact of higher freight charges and rising lobal inflation.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
The North American Soda Ash market remained tight during the Q1 2021, as the USA Gulf regional plants were compelled to shut down due to the power outages caused by the sub-zero temperature during mid-February. Furthermore, arbitrage and export agreement between TATA Chemicals and ANSAC ended in early January putting significant constraints on supplies in the regional market. Demand strengthened amidst limited availability and firm consumption from the soap and detergent segment in the region. Due to the heavy shipping charges, ANSAC announced a hike of +USD 25/MT on Soda Ash, whereas the FOB Texas prices settled at USD 248/MT for the April deliveries.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
The Asia Pacific Soda Ash market remained stable during the first quarter of 2021. The supplies were ample, as the downstream enquiries declined from several industries but significant offtakes from the Soap and detergent sector as a result of firm demand, balanced to market fundamentals throughout the quarter. Even at times of sluggish offtakes, price parity was witnessed due to the higher freight rates. Prices of Soda Ash in FOB Shanghai during March settled at USD 245 per MT.
Europe
The European Soda Ash market remained balanced to tight during the first quarter of 2021. Several plants operated normally throughout the quarter however, hindrance was witnessed due to the transportation lag as the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp route were disrupted amid cold weather. Demand remained constant as the offtakes from the downstream sector were ample. Solvay initiated carving out its Soda Ash and derivatives segment as a separate legal entity procedure before selling a business.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
North America
Despite improved performance of some of the downstream Soda Ash consumers, overall product demand has shown no considerable movement during the third quarter. Although there was the slight improvement in demand outlook during some months, the overall demand has remained pressured under the economic fallout throughout H22020. Several Soda Ash producers were heard operating at reduced efficiencies to manage their inventory levels. The US manufacturer Genesis Alkali put on hold its Trona based plant located in Granger Wyoming till September which was later extended till the end of the year, further affecting the export volumes.
Asia
Asia’s Soda Ash market is anticipated to remained suppressed by ample supplies, particularly in northeast Asia due to rising output and completion of plant turnarounds. On the supply side, Chinese producers lifted the operating rates to reach normalcy to cater to the consistent demand. However, relatively sagging demand resulted in the pile-up of huge stocks of Soda Ash, with inventories in China reaching their peak by the end of Q3. This high stock resulted in the significant fall in export and import prices of Soda Ash in China during the quarter. Overall Soda Ash industry is weakly organized with Indian players still eyeing on pick up in demand patterns amid pandemic-induced slowdown. With producers highlighting weak downstream demand, FOB China Soda Ash prices were assessed at the USD 185 per tonne levels in mid-August.
Europe
Throughout Europe there is little change in the market conditions of Soda Ash. Major soda ash players claimed that there is a little change in the pricing in the third quarter as producers are preparing to lift the market conditions. The announcement of Ciech to suspend the operations at its Romanian unit in Govora, had the little effect on overall Soda Ash supply. Key producers of Soda Ash stated that margins have been squeezed, pressured under the weak demand across the region as they could hardly see any improvement in the consumption patterns in the upcoming quarter.
