In October, the price of Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) in the global market experienced a significant decline, primarily driven by a sharp drop in the price of its key feedstock, Ethylene and Acrylic Acid. Despite this, downstream market demand remained stable, with no major fluctuations observed. The overall reduction in AEM prices was further influenced by weaker supplier actions, falling freight charges, and steady demand from end-users, all of which contributed to the price downturn in the AEM market.

In October, AEM prices in the European market fell to 16,690 USD/MT CFR-Hamburg. The decline in AEM prices was primarily due to lower feedstock costs, with Ethylene seeing a 5.1% decrease and Acrylic Acid dropping by 1.4%. In October, the German automobile market saw a positive shift, with 231,192 units sold, reflecting an 11.1% month-on-month increase and a 6.0% rise compared to the same period last year, according to the German Federal Motor Vehicle Office (KBA). Meanwhile, the aerospace sector remained active as Airbus reported 62 aircraft deliveries to 37 customers in October 2024, along with 82 new orders. Year-to-date, Airbus has delivered 559 aircraft to 77 customers in 2024, indicating robust performance in the aerospace industry. Market sentiment in the German industry remained gloomy, though slight signs of a potential economic trough emerged. The PMI for October stayed in recessionary territory but showed minor improvements from previous lows. Given the weak market outlook across major European economies, suppliers were hesitant to initiate bulk inventory purchases. This cautious stance by suppliers, combined with the reduced cost of feed stocks, led to the observed decline in AEM prices.

In October, AEM prices in the Indian market declined to 382,425 INR/MT Ex-Mumbai. This decrease in the AEM price is primarily driven by lower sourcing costs from major Asian exporters like China and Japan. India’s manufacturing sector began the third fiscal quarter with improved performance, as indicated by a significant rise in PMI, surpassing the threshold level. However, according to data from the Reserve Bank of India, Business Confidence fell to 119.10 points in Q3 2024, down from 127.20 points in Q2 2024. Despite temporary adjustments in supply-demand dynamics affecting trade terms, the market is currently witnessing adequate inventories, resulting in no major bidding for inventory accumulation. This has contributed to the declining trend of AEM prices in the Indian market.

As per ChemAnalyst's anticipation, the price of AEM is expected to showcase bullishness in the upcoming sessions. This AEM price increase aligns with the anticipated rise in feedstock prices, which will impact production costs. Furthermore, the positive outlook for downstream market demand will play a key role in supporting the overall consumption of AEM, contributing to a sustained increase in its price and market activity in the near future.