For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market in the United States witnessed a slight decline 2.92% in Q4 2024, driven by weaker demand dynamics and declining feedstock costs. Ethylene prices dropped significantly over the quarter, while Acrylic Acid prices remained subdued, contributing to reduced production costs for AEM manufacturers.
The automotive sector provided some stability, with vehicle sales showing consistent growth across the quarter. Preliminary figures indicated month-over-month and year-over-year increases in vehicle sales, showcasing resilience in this key downstream market. However, the aerospace sector continued to underperform, marked by decreased production and deliveries by Boeing, which faced challenges such as a major strike, intensified quality checks, and regulatory delays. Despite these setbacks, cautious optimism emerged with new orders for aircraft signaling potential recovery in the coming months.
On the manufacturing front, the US sector experienced subdued activity, characterized by lower new orders and production levels in December. Manufacturers remained proactive in managing inventory levels and adjusting production schedules to align with demand fluctuations. Supply conditions remained stable throughout the quarter, supported by adequate feedstock availability and strategic inventory management.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market in India witnessed a 2.60% decrease from the previous quarter. The market's dynamics were influenced by moderate demand trends and stable supply conditions across sectors. Despite the positive performance in sectors like aerospace, the automotive sector faced challenges, with vehicle sales seeing a decline in December, reflecting weaker market sentiment and inventory adjustments post-festive season. The automotive sector's subdued performance negatively impacted overall AEM consumption. On the supply side, the market remained well-stocked, with suppliers managing inventories effectively. Although there was no significant disruption in supply chains, the consistent inflow of imports and adequate stock levels ensured market stability. However, the overall slowdown in manufacturing activities, particularly in the automotive sector, and reduced demand in downstream industries contributed to the price reduction. While business confidence experienced a slight dip during the quarter, supported by lower feedstock prices and reduced bidding activity, there was optimism regarding future demand. The combination of slower demand growth, adequate supply, and manufacturers’ efforts to adjust production strategies led to a more balanced market, ultimately driving the overall price decrease.
Europe
The Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market in Germany experienced a gradual decline of 2.81% in prices during the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting subdued market dynamics and sectoral performance. Demand from the automotive and construction sectors remained lackluster, with the former showing intermittent growth and the latter suffering from persistent underperformance. Automotive sales improved in October and November, but a decline in December dampened overall quarterly momentum. The construction sector faced significant challenges, including reduced new orders, political uncertainties, and ongoing job cuts, further limiting consumption of AEM materials. On the supply side, manufacturers maintained steady production levels, with ample inventories ensuring consistent market availability. Improved logistics, particularly at key ports, facilitated smoother supply chain operations, though sporadic congestion persisted. Suppliers adopted a cautious approach, aligning production with demand trends to avoid surplus stock. The aerospace sector offered a silver lining, with Airbus achieving notable deliveries and orders, providing some stability to AEM consumption. However, the overall economic environment in Europe, characterized by declining business confidence and concerns over U.S. trade policies, weighed on market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American region experienced a significant decline in Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) prices, driven by several key factors. A balance in supply, coupled with diminished demand from crucial sectors such as aerospace, particularly due to disruptions in Boeing’s production and airline safety concerns, exerted downward pressure on prices.
These issues negatively impacted both orders and deliveries during the period, resulting in reduced AEM consumption. Conversely, the automotive sector displayed moderate performance, providing some support to overall demand. In the USA, where the most notable price fluctuations occurred, the pricing landscape followed a broader decreasing trend. Seasonal fluctuations and the influence of global economic conditions contributed to these price movements.
The quarter saw a 0.5% increase from the previous quarter, continuing a consistent downward trajectory, while reflecting a 1.71% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. At the end of the quarter, the price for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) MV 16.5-18.5 FOB USGC in the USA was USD 13,350/MT, highlighting the prevailing negative sentiment in the market.
APAC
During Q3 2024, the Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market in the APAC region saw stable prices, with India reflecting the most notable price changes. Several factors influenced market prices, including balanced supply and demand dynamics and the overall importing price dynamics from the major exporter in the US market. Major economies in Asia, particularly China, Japan, and India, experienced positive demand from the downstream markets, especially in the automotive and aerospace sectors, which significantly supported overall AEM demand in the asian region. The market recorded a slight 0.64% increase compared to the previous quarter, alongside a 0.47% decrease from the same quarter last year, indicating a steady pricing environment. Seasonal trends and industry correlations helped maintain price stability throughout the quarter. Although notable plant shutdowns led to temporary supply chain disruptions, they did not significantly affect overall market stability. By the end of the quarter, the price for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) MV 16.5-18.5 CFR JNPT in India reached USD 1,176.68/MT, underscoring the prevailing stable pricing sentiment in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the pricing environment for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) in Europe experienced a consistent decline of 0.70%. This decrease was mainly attributed to reduced demand in key sectors like automotive, coupled with ongoing global economic uncertainties. Despite this, positive demand from the aerospace sector continued to bolster overall AEM consumption which marked as the key factor in balancing the pricing dynamics of the AEM. Furthermore, supply chain disruptions—caused by tensions along shipping routes and lower supplier performance—added to the negative pricing trend. The Netherlands saw the most significant price changes during the quarter. Overall, the pricing trend displayed a negative correlation with earlier periods, underscoring the challenging market conditions. The quarter recorded a 0.47% price increase compared to the previous quarter, but a decrease of 0.82% when compared to the same quarter last year. By the end of the quarter, the price for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) in the Netherlands reached USD 14,100/MT CFR Rotterdam, marking the culmination of the modest downward pricing sentiment throughout Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market in North America experienced a downward pricing trend, primarily driven by several critical factors. A significant surge in feedstock prices, notably Ethylene and Acrylic Acid, placed marked pressure on AEM production costs. This quarter saw an increased demand from the automotive sector, which exhibited robust growth despite some contractions in aerospace. Furthermore, supply constraints due to ongoing Long Buildup activities among suppliers exacerbated the price increases.
The Panama Canal's draught restrictions also contributed to supply chain disruptions, adding to the logistical challenges faced by the market. Seasonal factors played a role, with Q2 typically experiencing elevated demand due to increased manufacturing activities. The price trend for the quarter showed an overall increase when compared to the previous quarter, which had recorded a decline of 1.8%.
Notably, the quarter concluded with the price of Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) MV 16.5-18.5 FOB USGC in the USA reaching USD 13400/MT. This reflects a positive pricing environment throughout Q2 2024, marked by consistent increases influenced by feedstock costs, supply chain dynamics, and robust downstream demand, particularly from the automotive sector.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region experienced a marginal price decrease. The continuous climb in Ethylene prices, driven by Long Buildup activities, exacerbated production costs for AEM, thereby influencing the overall market pricing of AEM from April to June. The supply chain encountered disruptions due to tight inventories and supplier activities aimed at inventory accumulation, which also played a crucial role in driving prices higher. Focusing on India, the market witnessed the most significant price changes within the APAC region. The Indian market's pricing dynamics were heavily influenced by robust downstream demand from the automobile and aerospace sectors. The surge in manufacturing activities and positive business confidence contributed to the rising demand for AEM. The percentage change from the previous quarter was recorded at -2%, indicating a reversal trend in Q2, while the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a 1% increase, underscoring the consistent upward trajectory. The overall trends in India were marked by a positive pricing environment, reflecting strong market fundamentals and heightened demand pressures. As of the quarter's end, the price for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) MV 16.5-18.5 CFR JNPT in India stood at USD 1175013/MT, indicating a robust market response to the prevailing economic conditions.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market in Europe experienced notable price decreases, driven by several significant factors. The downward trend in AEM pricing was primarily influenced by lower demand from the automotive and other manufacturing sectors in the European market, coupled with increased freight charges and higher feedstock costs. Notably, the adequate supply conditions due to higher inventory availability and logistical bottlenecks further exacerbated the price fluctuations. The price of AEM in Germany saw a notable decrease compared to the first half of the quarter, evidencing a 2% decrease. In contrast with the lower economic performance the Aerospace sector demand has supported the price of the AEM to some extent from falling further. Furthermore, the market faced no disruptions due to occasional plant shutdowns in the respective period. Despite a -2% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024, the pricing sentiment remained largely positive throughout Q2. The quarter-ending price for Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) MV 16.5-18.5 CFR Hamburg in Germany was USD 14190/MT.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the USA, the Ethylene Acrylic Elastomer (AEM) market witnessed an upward price trend amidst sectoral shifts. The automotive sector displayed resilience, evidenced by the sale of 3,797,420 units, signaling 2.83% decline from previous quarter but increasing month on month growth. Conversely, the aerospace sector faced challenges, notably with Boeing's decision to limit 737 productions due to heightened regulatory scrutiny and safety concerns.
The decline in Boeing's 737 MAX jetliner production adversely affected the aerospace industry, exacerbated by the Federal Aviation Administration's production cap and ongoing safety issues. However, the construction sector continued to outperform in the respective quarter. Despite these challenges, the AEM Rubber market in the USA experienced a price uptick, reaching 9660 USD/MT FOB-USGC, marking a significant 0.11% increment in Q1 2024 from Q4 2023.
This price incline is attributed to various factors, including steady demand from the automotive sector and in the other manufacturing sector, highlighting the market's resilience amidst sectoral challenges in the aerospace market. Additionally, support from overseas markets like Mexico, Brazil, and Canada further bolstered the price trend of AEM Rubber in the respective quarter, highlighting the market's resilience amidst sectoral challenges.
APAC
The AEM Rubber market in the APAC region witnessed an inclining phase in the current quarter of 2024 (Q1) from January to March. The overall market situation was positive, with adequate supply in the downstream market. However, the Indian market notably outperformed during this period, indicating regional disparities in demand dynamics. In the Automobile market total 1187081 Units of Automobile manufactured in this Quarter marking a robust sale in this respective period. Nevertheless the Chinese market also witnessed positive economic activities after the Lunar Year holidays which has counterbalanced the decline demand for the Holidays sessions. Totally 6717000 Units of Automobile sold in this quarter in the Chinese market which is comparatively lower as compared to the previous quarter. However the aerospace market is also underperforming in the Chinese market. However in the Indian market, the activeness in the Indian government witnessed in the Aerospace sector. Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd the Indian Aerospace company as of March 31, 2024, has huge order books, with additional major orders expected during FY 2024-25. Japan on the other hand replicated the overall Asian market scenario being the major exporter of the AEM Rubber in the Asian market. As of this quarter ending the price of the AEM Rubber halted at 17060 USD/MT CFR-JNPT marking an increment of 0.10% in this quarter.
Europe
In the European market the price of the AEM Rubber witnessed a challenging scenario in Q1 2024. From the previous quarter the price has shown drastic fall which has resulted into a retracement from the supplier’s end. The suppliers managed the inventories levels with respect to the witnessed demands from the core sectors which has not impacted majorly in the price trend in this quarter. However, amidst these factors, the downstream automobile market demonstrates resilience with a total of 694,825 units sold, albeit marking a 1.66% decline from the previous quarter's 706,543 units in Q3 2023. Despite challenges, this positive performance underscores the steady demand for automobiles in the region. Nevertheless, in the Aerospace sector market total 142 deliveries to 45 customers given from the major Aircraft maker Airbus in this quarter. The safety issue in the USA Aircraft maker Boeing’s aircraft has significantly impacted positively on the European aircraft maker Airbus market which has thereby influenced the demand for the various commodities including AEM Rubber in the European market.
