North American UAN Price Decline Continues in June 2024 Despite Favouring Weather

Throughout June 2024, the price of Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) exhibited divergent trends in the global market. The price increased in the Asian market however declined in the North America. The price surge in Asia is attributed to the increase in the price of the important raw materials ammonia and upstream natural gas during this period. The elevated price of raw materials prompted with heightened freight charges exerting upward pressure on UAN prices. Further, demand at the downstream fertilizer market remained stable with few inquiries. On the contrary, the UAN market experienced a downward trend in North America despite favourable weather conditions.

There was an upbeat mood in the Indian UAN market throughout June 2024. During that period, demand for UAN in the downstream fertilizer sector was modest. The India Meteorological Department's forecasted a great monsoon this year proving it a positive sign for fertilizer sales. However, the monsoon season is still in its early stages and any delays or suboptimal rainfall could adversely affect these prospects. At the same time, there was an excess of fertilizer stocks, including UAN. According to statistical data, the stocks of nitrogen-based fertilizers including UAN in the Indian market were 5.5 million tons at the beginning of July. Production of nitrogen-based fertilizers including UAN increased to 961,000 tons in June, a 10% increase from 875,000 tons in June last year. Further, the views of various market participants emphasize the growth of manufacturing activity in India, driven by strong demand.

On the other hand, the North American UAN market continued to decline throughout June 2024. During this period, there was a surplus of UAN in the North American market. Insights gathered from various market participants indicate that while US manufacturing remained in declining territory in June, output from the chemical industry was strong. At the same time, demand in the domestic and international fertilizer markets remained limited. Weather in recent weeks has brought heavy rains and thunderstorms to parts of the western corn belt, creating favourable conditions for corn planting - a stark contrast to the adverse weather conditions last June. The June 2024 Drought Monitor showed no drought areas in southern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa. However, farmers in the country have unexpectedly chosen to wait and observe before securing fertilizers, such as UAN, due to their anticipation of future price decrease. Internationally, demand, particularly from the Asian market, was modest, and demand from Brazil did not meet expectations. In Brazil, the harvest is wrapping up in the Northeast region for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) with poor yields due to a lack of rain and high temperatures. This has made consumers reluctant to make purchases for the forthcoming planting season due to fears of potential crop damage.