For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) market in the North America region experienced a mix of factors that influenced pricing dynamics. The prices increased during the first and last month of the quarter. At the onset of the quarter, a modest upswing in the demand for UAN was observed in both the North American fertilizer markets, attributed to improved weather conditions within the country.
Further, demand from importing South American market also revived amidst ongoing planting season of crops such as Corn, Cotton, and Sorghum after relief from prolonged drought conditions in Rio de Janeiro, brought about by torrential rain, marked a positive development in the region. However, as the quarter progressed, a reduction in production activities became apparent due to freezing temperatures and snowstorms. Severe winter conditions led to the closure of the U.S. Nitrogen LLC plant in Tennessee and the Yara/BASF JV plant in Texas, raising concerns about broader supply chain impacts.
Additionally, a disruption in the Ammonia gas pipeline at the Bethpage ice rink, resulting from a compressor malfunction, caused a shortage of Ammonia in the region. This shortage of a critical raw material exerted upward cost pressures on downstream derivatives, notably affecting UAN prices. However, the prices declined during February 2024 by a margin of 1.7% as participants in the market observed diminished barge interests once again. The market was waiting for the anticipated increase in demand during the spring season thus the prices revived in March 2024 and settled at USD 295/MT.
APAC
In the initial month of Q1 2024, the Asian Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) market experienced a significant price increase. However, as the quarter progressed, prices declined notably, settling at USD 410 per metric ton at Qingdao port by the quarter's end. Several key factors contributed to this price drop. Primarily, there was a decrease in international demand for UAN, coupled with lower freight charges and improved weather conditions in China. Additionally, subdued demand from western markets, influenced by mixed weather conditions, dampened consumer interest. While there was a slight uptick in domestic demand due to upcoming wheat planting, its impact on UAN prices remained minimal. Overall, the combination of reduced international demand, favourable freight rates, and improved domestic weather conditions led to a slight decrease in UAN prices. Conversely, prices had surged in January 2024 due to material shortages as traders restocked inventory. This period also saw increased shipping costs and security measures due to attacks in the Red Sea, prompting traders to seek alternative routes.
Europe
The European Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) market faced a challenging first quarter in 2024, characterized by a substantial 8.3% decline in prices in France. This decline was primarily attributed to reduced demand from the downstream fertilizer sector, compounded by an oversupply of UAN and muted overall demand. Additionally, market sentiments were dampened by trade uncertainties and unfavourable weather conditions. The weather across Europe varied significantly during the quarter, with cold spells in the northern regions, excessive rainfall in central areas, and dryness in the Mediterranean. These weather patterns influenced agricultural activities and fertilizer demand, further contributing to the subdued market conditions. Despite these challenges, the temporary maintenance shutdown of the Novomoskovskiy Azot (Eurochem Group) plant had minimal impact on prices. However, ongoing farmers' protests, fuelled by rising energy prices, played a significant role in reducing farmers' buying enthusiasm. These protests added further pressure on the already subdued demand in the fertilizer sector. In response to the inventory pressures faced by traders, various strategies were employed, including adjustments to fertilizer prices, including UAN. These efforts aimed to alleviate the impact of declining demand and lower production rates on market dynamics. However, despite these measures, prices continued to decline throughout the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
During the fourth quarter concluding in December 2023, the Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) market in North America experienced a mix of sentiments. Initially, for the initial two months, UAN prices in the North American market were on an upward trajectory; however, as December approached, the UAN market took a downturn.
The surge in prices was primarily attributed to logistical challenges unfolding on the Mississippi River, with a crucial bottleneck north of Vicksburg, Mississippi, cutting off the Midwest from barge resupply until mid-March. This presented a challenging situation for farmers in the region, facing soaring prices in a fertilizer-starved market.
Adding to the complexities, China tightened export restrictions on UAN, withdrawing as a major supplier from the international market. This sudden disruption in the global supply chain led to a rush for remaining stocks, contributing to further price escalation. However, as December progressed, the UAN market shifted to bearish sentiments, supported by subdued demand from both domestic and international markets. Unfavourable weather conditions in the country posed a potential threat to crops, dampening consumer enthusiasm. Simultaneously, during this period, demand from major importing nation Brazil remained restricted, grappling with prolonged drought conditions exacerbated by the El-Nino effect.
APAC
During the fourth quarter concluding in December 2023, the Urea Ammonium Nitrate market in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region exhibited bullish sentiments, particularly impacting China and India. The rise in the cost of vital feedstock, Ammonium Nitrate, and heightened production rates in the region contributed to upward cost pressures on Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN). Initially, a robust demand from end-user fertilizer markets emerged as consumers stocked up for the winter crop, Rapeseed. Simultaneously, manufacturing units in Northern China operated at reduced rates, leading to material scarcity in the Chinese market. As the quarter progressed, global trade uncertainties and heightened freight charges were pivotal factors driving the surge in UAN prices. Major shipping companies, including Chinese Cosco and its subsidiary OOCL, alongside Taiwanese Evergreen, temporarily halted cargo transport on the Red Sea route, a vital maritime pathway connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa. Consequently, commodities were rerouted through alternative channels, elevating transportation costs. To safeguard profit margins, traders increased prices for various commodities, including UAN. In parallel, the Indian market experienced firm demand for fertilizers and Urea Ammonium Nitrate during the rabi crop season. Concurrently, a shortage of UAN supplies in the Indian market occurred after China ceased additional CIQ export licenses, adopting a stringent export stance. Reports indicated containers previously export-cleared were removed from vessels carrying fertilizers, including UAN.
Europe
The European UAN market in the fourth quarter of 2023 was characterized by a bullish trend for the first two months and declined lately. Yara's temporary halt in ammonia and its derivatives production contributed to the complexity of the supply dynamics, potentially causing a surge in spot demand and exacerbating the existing shortage in the European market. This shortage led to increased prices in the region. Further, demand for UAN remained firm from the international market during this period. After Chinese Government halted its fertilizer exports Asian consumers were active in the western market. However, as December approached demand from Asian market declined as the peak planting season has passed. Further, adverse weather conditions within the region along with heavy rainfall posed to be a potential threat for the crops. This has further dampened the buying enthusiasm of UAN consumers for Spring 2024. Additionally, trade uncertainties amidst rebel attacks in the Red Sea had caused the traders to opt for alternative trade route. In an effort to avoid strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen, carriers have already diverted trade over the past several weeks away from the crucial Middle East trade route, which, along with the Suez Canal, connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean. This has created a multiple-front storm for global trade, leading to a surge in European port inventories. The interplay of these factors prompted towards narrowed gap between demand and supply.
