Hamburg, Germany: In November 2024, both the US and German Isobutylene markets maintained a bearish trend. This was primarily driven by a reduction in production costs due to lower upstream Crude Oil prices. Additionally, ongoing efforts to destock accumulated inventories ahead of the year-end further reinforced the bearish market sentiment for Isobutylene.

In November 2024, the Isobutylene market in Germany experienced a 1.5% decline, with prices settling at USD 1172/MT (FD-Hamburg). This decline was influenced by the ongoing destocking efforts. The Butyl Rubber and Lubricants sectors showed mixed performance, with Butyl Rubber seeing steady growth due to a 5.4% month-on-month increase in automotive sales, although overall new passenger car registrations were down 0.5% from the previous year. Despite improvements in the automotive segment, high inventory levels and declining demand from the Lubricant sector kept Isobutylene demand subdued. Furthermore, the suppliers’ destocking efforts led to slower new business growth and production, driven by competition and price pressures. Cautious market behavior resulted in lowered ex-quotations for Isobutylene to clear existing stocks before year-end. Additionally, business confidence dropped from 86.5 in October to 85.7 in November, impacted by government instability and potential trade tariffs from the incoming Trump administration. In addition, Rail freight disruptions in northern Germany, caused by closures on the corridor to and from the Port of Hamburg, further complicated logistics. Despite the central Hannover accident restricting train services, Isobutylene inventory levels remained high and stored in warehouses, keeping the market sentiment bearish.

Similarly, during November 2024, the US Isobutylene market continued its bearish trend due to high inventory levels in storage units, leading to a decline in new orders and reinforcing negative market sentiments. Market participants remained cautious amid ongoing uncertainties, awaiting clarity on future trade policies. The victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election further impacted the market, with his policies focusing on deregulation and enhancing domestic production, resulting in lower commodity prices due to weaker economic growth. Additionally, ongoing destocking activities as the year-end approached supported the bearish market scenario, prompting market players to lower their ex-quotations to reflect current trends. In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50–4.75%, aligning with market expectations.

In terms of the downstream sectors, the demand for Isobutylene in the downstream sectors of Butyl Rubber, Fuel Additives, and Lubricants continued to decline, causing buyers to limit their procurement activities. Despite a 9.8% year-on-year and 2.76% month-on-month increase in US automotive sales, with 1,363,968 new vehicles sold, the Butyl Rubber market faced a downturn due to high inventory levels in the automotive sector. This further limited the demand for Butyl Rubber and subsequently reduced Isobutylene demand, pushing prices downward. Additionally, the Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) market experienced a decline, attributed to weaker demand from the downstream gasoline blending industry, further dampening market sentiment and contributing to price reductions for Isobutylene. Increased domestic inventories exerted additional downward pressure on prices as supply outpaced demand. Sluggish trading activity and cautious buyer behavior amid economic uncertainties compounded this trend, maintaining a bearish outlook for Isobutylene.

As per ChemAnalyst, the Isobutylene market in the US and Germany remains uncertain amid the ongoing uncertainties surrounding trade policies, and economic policies under the new administration could continue to impact market dynamics. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments and potential shifts in economic growth might positively impact the market sentiments toward Isobutylene.