For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Isobutylene market in North America witnessed a period of decreasing prices, particularly pronounced in the USA. The market experienced a challenging quarter marked by a confluence of factors that contributed to the downward trend in prices. High supply levels and weakening demand from key sectors like Butyl Rubber and Fuel Additives exerted pressure on prices. The imbalance between supply and demand dynamics was a significant driver of the price decline. Additionally, the impact of disruptions such as plant shutdowns further strained the market, limiting price recovery opportunities.
In the USA specifically, the Isobutylene market displayed a consistent negative sentiment throughout the quarter. Seasonal factors and fluctuating demand patterns played a role in shaping price trends. The correlation between production costs, feedstock prices, and market prices remained evident, influencing the overall price trajectory. The price decrease of 3% from the previous quarter underscored the persistent bearish market conditions.
The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a further decline of 2%, reflecting the sustained downward movement in prices. Ultimately, the quarter concluded with Isobutylene priced at USD 1215/MT (FD Texas) in the USA, signaling a challenging pricing environment characterized by a consistent decrease in market sentiment.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Isobutylene market in the APAC region experienced a pronounced decline in prices, primarily influenced by a combination of factors. The market experienced weakening demand from key downstream sectors such as Butyl Rubber and Fuel Additives, leading to oversupply and downward pressure on prices. Additionally, reduced production costs due to lower feedstock prices contributed to the overall bearish sentiment. The market faced disruptions from natural disasters and logistical challenges, further exacerbating the price decrease. In China, the market witnessed the most significant price changes, reflecting the broader trend in the region. The quarter recorded a substantial -7% decrease from the previous quarter and an -8% difference between the first and second half. Plant shutdowns further impacted supply dynamics during this period. Despite some fluctuations, the quarter-ending price of Isobutylene in China stood at USD 1190/MT, highlighting the prevailing negative pricing environment in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Isobutylene market in Europe experienced a notable decline in prices, with Germany being the most impacted by the downward trend. Several significant factors contributed to the decrease in market prices during this quarter. One key driver was the imbalance between high inventory levels and subdued demand from downstream sectors like Butyl Rubber and Fuel Additives. This disconnect led to a bearish sentiment in the market, compounded by disruptions in the supply chain, including port strikes that increased stockpiles. Additionally, falling crude oil prices, the primary feedstock for Isobutylene production, played a crucial role in easing production costs, further exerting downward pressure on prices. Germany, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes during the quarter. The market experienced a seasonal slowdown, impacting sectors like automotive and tire manufacturing, which are major consumers of Isobutylene. The correlation between reduced demand, logistical disruptions, and increased inventory levels led to a consistent decrease in prices throughout the quarter. Despite a slight decline in the previous quarter, the overall trend remained negative, reflecting a challenging pricing environment for Isobutylene. The quarter-ending price in Germany stood at USD 1200/MT, highlighting the prevailing decreasing sentiment in the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Isobutylene market in North America experienced a pronounced upward pricing trend, driven by multiple significant factors. The primary influences included a surge in demand from downstream sectors such as butyl rubber and fuel additives, coupled with constrained supply due to reduced production rates. The higher prices of upstream feedstocks like ethylene and crude oil further exacerbated the cost pressures on Isobutylene production. Additionally, logistical challenges, including temporary plant shutdowns, disrupted the supply chain, adding to the market tightness. Notably, seasonal factors also played a role, with increased trading activities leading up to major holidays contributing to the elevated price levels.
Focusing on the USA, the country witnessed the most substantial price changes within the region. The overall trend was characterized by a persistent rise in Isobutylene prices, underpinned by robust demand from the automotive sector, reflected in the growing sales of new vehicles. The seasonality factor, particularly the heightened activity during holidays, further supported the bullish sentiment in the market. The quarter saw a significant price increase compared to the previous year, underscoring the strengthening demand.
An analysis of the first and second halves of the quarter reveals a consistent upward trajectory, with a recorded 3% increase in prices. This trend reflects the market's response to ongoing supply constraints and the steady rise in demand. The quarter concluded with Isobutylene prices reaching USD 1220/MT FD Texas, marking a positive pricing environment for the commodity. Overall, the market dynamics in Q2 2024 indicate a bullish outlook, driven by strong demand, limited supply, and favorable seasonal factors.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Isobutylene market in the APAC region experienced a notable decline in prices, influenced by several significant factors. The quarter was marked by a persistent bearish sentiment, driven primarily by high inventory levels, reduced production costs, and lower crude oil prices. Despite a steady demand from downstream sectors like butyl rubber and fuel additives, the ample supply of isobutylene from storage units and decreased bidding activity further suppressed market prices. Plant shutdowns, including those of MTBE facilities, added to the disruptions, exacerbating the downward trend. China, in particular, witnessed the most substantial price changes within the region. The overall trends indicated a correlation between the availability of discounted crude oil imports and the subsequent reduction in production costs for isobutylene. Seasonality also played a role, with post-holiday stockpiling in anticipation of demand fluctuations contributing to the price volatility. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices showed a significant decline, while the quarter-over-quarter change was recorded at -2%. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a sharper drop of -8%. The latest quarter-ending price stood at USD 1280/MT FOB-Qingdao, reflecting the ongoing negative pricing environment. Overall, the quarter exhibited a consistently declining trend, driven by a confluence of high supply, low production costs, and market disruptions, resulting in a significantly negative pricing context for isobutylene.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has been challenging for the Isobutylene market in Europe. During the first half of the second quarter, the market witnessed an incline. The upward trajectory of feedstock crude oil and ethylene prices has significantly contributed to this rise, supported by favorable spreads. However, offtakes were slightly sluggish from buyers due to higher consumption rates from end-user industries. This rally began after a serious escalation in the Middle East, this time involving direct conflict between Israel and Iran. Following a deadly airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Tehran blamed Israel and vowed retaliation. Demand remained robust from Styrene Butadiene Rubber (SBR) manufacturers, driven by strong demand from downstream synthetic rubber industries. However, during the second half of the quarter, the market showcased a decline in their trend. Economic fluctuations, notably the decline in crude oil prices due to the availability of discounted US oil, have played a pivotal role in reducing production costs and exerting downward pressure on Isobutylene prices. Additionally, sluggish demand from the downstream automotive and construction sectors contributed to the softening market. The European automotive industry, grappling with reduced car production and registration figures, further dampened demand for butyl rubber and, consequently, Isobutylene. In Germany, the impact of these factors was particularly pronounced. Seasonality trends also exacerbated this decline, as the slowdown in construction activities during this period compounded the effects of already low consumer confidence and high interest rates. Compared to the previous quarter, prices recorded a 2% incline, reflecting the overall positive sentiment in the market. The quarter concluded with Isobutylene priced at USD 1208/MT FD Hamburg.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the Isobutylene pricing dynamics in the North America region were influenced by a multitude of factors beyond the conventional top three. While the overall trend showed a slight increase in prices, it is important to note the market situation in the USA, where price fluctuations were most pronounced. The market saw a bullish sentiment, driven by robust demand and reduced domestic supply due to low producer running rates.
The ongoing expansion in the construction sector played a significant role in driving up demand for Isobutylene derivatives, particularly in tire manufacturing for lightweight and fuel-efficient vehicles. This surge in demand from downstream industries, such as the construction and automotive sectors, led to substantial price increases in key derivatives like MTBE and Butyl rubber. Moreover, the limited availability of feedstock and logistical challenges further contributed to the upward pressure on prices.
Plant shutdowns were not reported by market participants during this period. Looking at the year-over-year comparison, the prices in Q1 2024 were higher than the same quarter last year, indicating a positive market trend. Additionally, compared to the last quarter of 2023, there was a marginal decrease in prices. However, it is important to note that a detailed analysis of pricing trends beyond the provided information is not possible, and monthly comparisons have been avoided. Ultimately, the final quarter's price for Isobutylene FD Texas in the USA was USD 1175/MT.
APAC
In the APAC region, Isobutylene pricing dynamics in Q1 2024 were influenced by a range of factors beyond the conventional top three. The overall trend showed a nuanced examination of the market situation in China, where price fluctuations were most pronounced. The quarter began with a 4.6% decrease in prices compared to the previous quarter, driven by moderate demand-supply dynamics and decreased feedstock Ethylene prices. However, as the quarter progressed, prices rebounded, ultimately reaching USD 1385/MT FOB-Qingdao, a significant increase compared to the same quarter last year. This price increase was primarily driven by low supplies and high demand from petrochemical facilities. The limited availability of Isobutylene led to an upward trend in prices, while increased demand from the automotive sector and the polymer market further contributed to the price surge. Additionally, plant shutdowns, such as the Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong, which went under force majeure due to a fire incident, impacted feedstock availability and added to the pricing dynamics. The correlation between Isobutylene prices and upstream factors, such as crude oil and naphtha, also played a role in shaping the pricing trends. Overall, the Isobutylene market in the APAC region in Q1 2024 demonstrated a complex interplay of supply, demand, plant shutdowns, and upstream factors, resulting in significant price fluctuations.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the Isobutylene pricing dynamics in the Europe region were influenced by various factors beyond the conventional top three. The market situation in Germany, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, played a significant role in shaping the overall trend. The overall market sentiments remained robust, indicating a positive outlook for Isobutylene demand. However, the supply side faced challenges due to low inventory levels and reduced production capacity. Buyers responded by opting for bulk purchases, further straining the supply-demand dynamics and contributing to the rising price trend. Feedstock shortages also exerted upward pressure on prices, leading to an overall imbalance between supply and demand. Seasonality and correlation in pricing were evident, with an anticipated increase in demand from the automotive and construction sectors as temperatures improved. Additionally, the market saw an uptick in import demand, while logistical challenges, including a significant backlog and shortage of iso-tanks in Europe, created further supply chain disruptions. Looking at the year-over-year price change from the same quarter last year, Isobutylene prices experienced an upward trajectory. The change from the last quarter of 2023 also showed an increase, highlighting the continued upward trend. Ultimately, the final quarter's price for Isobutylene FD Hamburg in Germany was USD 1210/MT. This comprehensive analysis showcases the nuanced factors at play in the Isobutylene market, providing insights beyond the conventional top influences and highlighting the impact of significant events like plant shutdowns on pricing trends.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The Isobutylene price trend witnessed a bearish movement in North America during the fourth quarter of 2023, with an overall decline of almost 5% in the prices amid depressed demand and procurement activities from end-user industries. Initially, the demand remained low from the domestic downstream industries as the operating rates were moderate in Butyl Rubber industries amid declined orders from the Automotive sector amid United Auto Workers (UAW) strike. However, during the mid-quarter, dry weather conditions because of the El Nina effect decreased the Panama Canal water levels occurred and resulted in a decline in Cargo rates. At the same time, the decline in the USA's manufacturing sector's Purchasing Manager's Index indicated contraction in manufacturing sector activities, leading to low demand from the butyl rubber and polyisobutylene industries. Furthermore, the feedstock Ethylene availability improved amid a reduction in the upstream Naphtha and Crude Oil prices after the resumed refinery operations and increased refining capacity in the region and negatively impacted the production costs of Isobutylene. Towards the end of the quarter, supply rates improved as heavy rainfall in the region increased the water levels of the Panama Canal and shipping activities. On the contrary, the orders were sluggish from the MTBE producers throughout the month due to depressed demand and reduced trading activities in the country, and negatively impacted the Isobutylene prices. Conclusively, at the end of the year, the Isobutylene FD Texas prices in the USA hovered at USD 1124/MT.
Asia
In the fourth quarter of 2023, Isobutylene prices witnessed consistent reductions in the APAC region due to underwhelming sentiments from the buyers as the demand for Isobutylene remained low throughout the quarter due to depressed consumption rates from end-user industries, particularly in the automotive sector. In China, the production rates were moderate, while the demand remained low from the domestic downstream industries as the operating rates declined in the Butyl Rubber and Polyisobutylene industries amid declined orders after the Golden Week holidays. Meanwhile, the cost support for Isobutylene from the feedstock Ethylene declined during the mid-quarter. This was due to reduced offtakes from Glycol industries, which improved the availability of Ethylene and lowered production costs. Additionally, the reduction in upstream Naphtha and Crude Oil prices further contributed to the decrease in production costs. At that time, orders remained low from the Polyisobutylene manufacturers amid reduced buying and procurement activities amid weak demand from Polymer industries. Towards the end, the inventory levels rose in the domestic market as the orders were sluggish from the MTBE producers due to depressed demand for fuel blending purposes amid fluctuations in refinery operation rates in the producing country. At the end of Q4, 2023, the Isobutylene FOB Qingdao hovered at USD 1235/MT.
Europe
Like the North American region, the Isobutylene prices in the European region witnessed bearish movement with an overall decrease of 5%. At the beginning of the quarter, consumption rates were low from Butyl Rubber industries amid declined orders from the Automotive sector. Similarly, inquiries were low from MTBE producers as well amid excess availability of supplies. It resulted in increased inventory levels. During the mid-quarter, orders remained low from the Polyisobutylene manufacturers amid reduced buying and procurement activities amid weak demand from Polymer industries. Simultaneously, the decrease in feedstock Ethylene offtakes from downstream Glycol industries led to a reduction in the cost support from Ethylene and negatively impacted the production costs of Isobutylene. Towards the end of the quarter, the market did not showcase any significant improvement in inquiries amid the ongoing economic slowdown in the region. At the same time, the feedstock Ethylene prices decreased during the month because of increased inventories amid sluggish offtakes from downstream industries. At the end of Q4, the Isobutylene FD Hamburg prices were witnessed at USD 1155/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The Isobutylene prices surged in the North American region and increased by 10% during the Q3 of 2023 amid moderate demand and supply dynamics. Initially, producers kept their operational rates moderately low due to escalation in feedstock prices amid hike in bank interest rates by Federal Reserve Bank, which impacted the supply rates in the market. During the mid-quarter, prices were firm amid affected supply rates from suppliers. The shipping and freight routes were affected amid the decline in Mississippi and Ohio river water levels and delayed shipping routes activities through Panama Canal. Meanwhile, the hike in bank interest rates by Federal Reserve Bank to cool down the rising inflation impacted the demand from buyers, causing a slowdown in economic growth of the region. Then, towards the end of Q3, prices inclined again amid stressed production rates due to limited availability of feedstock Butadiene supplies because of upstream Crude Oil production cuts by OPEC+ and Russia. Conclusively, at the end of Q3 of 2023, Isobutylene prices in the USA witnessed USD 1178/MT.
Asia
Like the North American region, the Isobutylene price remained firm in the Asian region during the 3rd quarter of 2023. At the beginning of the quarter, supply rates were inadequate amid steady demand from Butyl rubber manufacturers amid consistent demand from downstream synthetic rubber industries. During the mid-quarter, price trend remained firm due to moderate demand-supply dynamics amid storms and typhoons like Doksuri, Saola and heavy rainfall in the region. Simultaneously, the upstream Ethylene cash margins in the Northeast Asian countries fluctuating below zero, instigated and upheld by the economic slowdown along with geopolitical differences amongst the nations. Towards the end of the quarter, prices rose again due to moderate production rates amid stressed availability of feedstock supplies. The Crude Oil production cuts by OPEC+ and Russia limited the feedstock Ethylene availability. The supply rates limited from Japan and South Korea amid increased procurement activities before the Autumnal Equinox Holiday and Chuseok Holidays. At the end of Q3, 2023, Isobutylene discussion in China witnessed USD 1331/MT.
Europe
The Isobutylene price trend showcased bullish movement in Europe during the Q3 of 2023, and prices inclined by almost 9% during the quarter. The Eurozone manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index dropped gradually during the 3rd quarter, indicating contractions in manufacturing sector activities during summer holidays in the region and decline in procurement activities from downstream buyers. Simultaneously, the production rates were low throughout the Q3 amid high input prices. However, demand was moderately low from the Polyisobutylene industries amid decline in retail sector sales during the mid-quarter. At the same time, cost support was high on upstream Ethylene due to escalation in Brent Crude Oil prices amid stressed Crude Oil stocks due to production cuts by global refineries. It raised the product prices again towards the end of the quarter. The inquiries were stable from the Butyl Rubber manufacturers amid incline in electric Car sales index during September. At the end of the quarter, Isobutylene prices in Germany hovered at USD 1215/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The Isobutylene prices showcased bearish sentiments during the Quarter 2 of 2023. The prices fell consistently amid the decline in demand from downstream industries and contraction in manufacturing sector activities. Initially, the supplies were firm, and the production rates were moderate amid increased labor costs and shortages of labor due to the rise in recession in the region. In the mid-quarter, demand plunged from the downstream Butyl Rubber and Polyisobutylene industries due to weak orders from the downstream Automotive sector and sports equipment producers. Towards the end of the quarter, prices fell amid cautious buying activities by buyers due to a hike in bank interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which decreased the product demand from downstream Polyisobutylene producers due to sluggish orders from end-user consumers amid impacted purchasing power. Simultaneously, the fall in the feedstock Ethylene costs reduced the cost support on the production costs. At the end of the quarter, Isobutylene prices in the USA witnessed USD 1070/MT.
Asia
The Isobutylene price trend oscillated in Asia during Q2 of 2023. Initially, prices were firm and rose in the region as the production costs increased amid an escalation in feedstock Ethylene and Butadiene prices due to an increase in the upstream Crude Oil prices impacted by the announcement of Crude Oil production cuts by OPEC+. During the mid-quarter, prices showcased mixed sentiments in the region. The product prices decreased in North Asia amid firm availability of supplies and rose in India due to the high demand for downstream MBTE from the Automotive sector. Towards the end of the quarter, prices fell due to declined offtakes from downstream MBTE producer Wanhua Chemical in China, with an MTBE production capacity of 820,000 MTPA during early June 2023. It raised the domestic inventory levels amid declined demand from Polyisobutylene manufacturers. Simultaneously, decrease in feedstock Ethylene prices amid softened offtakes from end-users, which reduced the upstream cost support on the production costs. At the end of the quarter, Isobutylene prices in China witnessed USD 1256/MT.
Europe
The Isobutylene prices decreased consistently throughout the quarter in the European region. At the beginning of quarter 2, the price trend remained stable, and prices dropped marginally amid firm availability of supplies and declined Polyisobutylene demand from end-user industries. During the mid-quarter, prices decreased due to depressed demand from Butyl Rubber Industries and Polyisobutylene producers due to reduced consumption from Sports goods manufacturers. Meanwhile, the decline in upstream Butadiene prices due to a drop in upstream Crude Oil prices reduced the production costs. The contraction in the price intensified at the end of quarter 2, amid firm availability of supplies and reduced buying activities from buyers. The hike in bank interest rates by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to curb rising inflation made domestic buyers conscious while making purchases, and they avoided any unnecessary trading activities. Consequently, the producers revised their quotations negatively to improve the offtakes. At the end of the quarter, Isobutylene prices in Germany witnessed USD 1117/MT.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
Isobutylene prices showed mixed trends in the USA market during the first quarter of 2023. During January and February, Isobutylene prices increased due to improved buying sentiments in the market. Demand from the downstream Polyisobutylene industries has been boosted in the domestic market, which further contributes to the high prices of Isobutylene. In addition, cost pressure from the feedstock Tertiary Butyl Alcohol has been firmed, which resulted in the high production cost of Isobutylene. In addition, LyondellBasell Industries performs Final Commissioning for a new 2.2 billion Lbs/yr Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) (feedstock for Isobutylene) unit in Channelview, TX. The units are expected to be operational in late March or early April, which is anticipated to increase the feedstock availability in the USA market. Despite this, Isobutylene prices declined in the domestic market during March as the demand outlook for the product remained on the lower edge along with weak productional capacity. In addition, the purchasing manager’s index dropped from 47.7 to 46.3 in March, signifying a contraction in both industrial and manufacturing activity. Furthermore, suppliers had enough to cater to the domestic market demand. Thus, prices of Isobutylene FD Texas were assessed at USD 1129/MT during March.
Asia-Pacific
Prices of Isobutylene have increased in China market throughout the first quarter of 2023. The increase in procurement reported from the downstream Polyisobutylene industries has impacted the price value chain of Isobutylene in the Chinese domestic market. Thus, as a result of strong downstream demand, the manufacturers were compelled to revise their offers to gain some profit margins. In addition, the cost support from feedstock TBA (Tertiary Butyl Alcohol) was sufficient to cause an upshift in the price realizations of Isobutylene in the domestic market. At the same time, the manufacturing activity experienced a slower expansion in March. This can be attributed to the slower-than-expected economic recovery of the regional bellwether China following its reopening from the pandemic. Thus, prices of Isobutylene FOB Qingdao were assessed at USD 1306/MT during March 2023.
Europe
Prices of Isobutylene have continued to increase after the holidays in the European market throughout the first quarter of 2023. The incline in the prices was attributed to the improved demand from the downstream Polyisobutylene industries. Market participants reported a sharp rise in queries from the end-user. Although, feedstock Tertiary Butyl Alcohol has shown fluctuation throughout the quarter. Meanwhile, imports from the Asian market have comparatively higher than the domestic prices as prices increase in the exporting countries. In addition, according to ifo Business Climate Index, raised from 91.1 to 93.2 in March, compared with the previous month. Thus, prices of Isobutylene FD Hamburg were settled at USD 1201/MT during March 2023.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Isobutylene prices showed fluctuation in the USA market during the fourth quarter of 2022. During the H1 of 2022, Isobutylene prices raised slightly due to the high inflation and turmoil in energy prices. Demand from the downstream Polyisobutylene and allied industries have been stable in the domestic market. However, during the H2 of 2022, consumer sentiment has declined in the region, which has been vindicated by the decrease in the Manufacturing Purchasing Index, which dipped below 50 (i.e.; 49.7) in November, signifying contraction in both industrial and manufacturing activity. The holiday season further contributed to the bearish demand dynamics in the regional market. Furthermore, cheap Asian imports lead to a price drop in the regional market. Overall, demand from the downstream Polyisobutylene and other competitive industries has declined due to the seasonal dullness, while the ample material availability weighed down the prices of Isobutylene in the regional market. As a result, prices of Isobutylene FD Texas were settled at USD 1107/MT during December.
Asia- Pacific
In China, prices of Isobutylene showed fluctuation during the fourth quarter of 2022. During October, prices of Isobutylene showed stability, backed by the sufficient inventory level and stable consumption from the downstream Polyisobutylene industries. However, despite the looming shadow of Covid in the Chinese market, Isobutylene prices have remained on a downward trend owing to the weak demand dynamics. Furthermore, China witnessed severe lockdown during the "Zero Covid Policy," which impacted the manufacturing and logistics activity in the region. Demand from the downstream industries has remained sluggish in the domestic market, while the consumption rates from the international market have also been on the weak side ahead of the impending holiday season in the West and soft consumer sentiments, which overwhelmed the demand dynamics during 2022. Thus, prices of Isobutylene FOB Qingdao were assessed at USD 1213/MT during December.
Europe
Prices of Isobutylene have witnessed mixed sentiments in the European market during the fourth quarter of 2022. During the first half of 2022, Isobutylene prices have increased marginally due to the high inflation and volatile energy prices in the regional market. The supply chains in the region were disrupted amid prolonged port congestions and vessel bunching, which halted the supply flow of Isobutylene and, thus, limited the product's availability in the market. Meanwhile, demand from the downstream Polyisobutylene and other competitive industries has been stable. Although, during the second half of 2022, Isobutylene prices have gained a downward momentum backed by the sharp decline in freight charges, resulting in better-imported availability in the regional market. In terms of domestic production cost, operating rates remained under check amid weak demand dynamics from the downstream Polyisobutylene and other competitive industries. Also, the threat of recession across Europe has eased. As per the data, inflation dropped from 10.1% to 9.1% in December. Thus, at the conclusion of Q4, in Germany, Isobutylene FOB Hamburg was assessed at USD 1125/MT during December.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
During the third quarter of 2022, Isobutylene prices showed mixed sentiments in the North American region. In the initial part of the third quarter, the Isobutylene price rise by 2.6%. Bullish sentiment in the feedstock, turmoil in the energy market, and a high inflation rate contributed to the high Isobutylene prices across the regional market. However, Butadiene prices shifted marginally towards a downward trend during the mid-quarter of Q3, supported by abundant inventories coupled with weak demand from the downstream derivative Polyisobutylene industries. Although, during the end of Q3, demand from the downstream Polyisobutylene industries slightly revived, which resulted in the Isobutylene prices increasing in the USA market. In addition, the US market has struggled with contradictory logistics, as interior rail hubs causing a container backlog at Long Beach port have affected the supply chain. Hence, as of result, prices of Isobutylene FD Texas were USD 1166/MT with a monthly decline of 3.2% during September.
Asia- Pacific
Isobutylene prices have showcased fluctuation in the Asia- Pacific region during the third quarter of 2022. In July, prices of Isobutylene increased by 2.4% in the China domestic market owing to the limited inventory level coupled with improved demand from the downstream Polyisobutylene industries. At the same time, demand from the international market has also increased, which raised the prices of Isobutylene. However, during the mid of Q3, prices plunged by 2.7% due to the weak feedstock Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices. In addition, low offtakes from the downstream derivative Polyisobutylene industries have further led to the price drop of Isobutylene. Although, during the end of Q3, Isobutylene prices gained upward momentum due to the high production cost amid soaring energy prices. In contrast, demand from the downstream derivative and other allied industries has remained bearish. As a result, prices of Isobutylene FOB Qingdao were assessed at USD 1277/MT with a monthly inclination of 4.6% during September.
Europe
Prices of Isobutylene have showcased a see-saw trend in the European market during the third quarter of 2022. During July, prices gained momentum upward in the German market. The domestic cost of production remains higher due to increased energy and operating costs, resulting in weak output rates. In contrast, demand from the downstream derivative polyisobutylene industries has been stable to weak. However, during the mid-Q3, Isobutylene prices dropped by 4.5%, owing to the sufficient inventory level and weak demand from the downstream industries. The steady flows of cheap imports from the Asian and North American regions have led to the price drop in Isobutylene. Although, throughout Q3, prices of the domestically produced material remained on the higher side on the back of the high production cost. Hence, as a result, prices of Isobutylene FD Hamburg were assessed at USD 1176/MT with a monthly inclination of 3.5% during September.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The overall market outlook of Isobutylene showed an upward trend in Q2 of 2022 across the North American region. Prices of USA Isobutylene have continued to increase instead of a hampered material supply. Demand fundamentals have been floating throughout the region as downstream Polyisobutylene, and Butyl Rubber industries attempt to maintain the balance. However, supply witnessed disturbing dynamics in the country on the back of high input costs that led producers to boost the price of materials for domestic and international converters. Furthermore, global inflation has caused Isobutylene prices to rise. Furthermore, the United States imports a portion of its consumption from Asian and European producers. As a result, expensive imported cargoes bolstered the increasing price trend of Isobutylene in the US market. As a result, increased product cost partially surpasses customers' cost burden to protect their profit margins.
Asia-Pacific
Isobutylene showed positive market sentiments in the Asia- Pacific region during Q2 of 2022. In addition, high raw material Tertiary Butyl Alcohol has the other facts for the price surge in the domestic market. Additionally, China's manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest rate, buoyed by a strong output rebound as pandemic restrictions were lifted, sending factories racing to meet recovering demand. Moreover, the subindex for production rose to its highest level since November 2020, while the first increase in export orders boosted new orders. After worsening for the past two years, supplier delivery times stabilized in June amid easing supply chain snags. Despite the strong rebound, factories remained cautious about hiring more workers, with employment falling. In addition, high inflationary pressure further supported the increased prices of the product. However, demand from the downstream for the fabrication of Butyl rubber and Polyisobutylene industries has remained steady.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2022, prices of Isobutylene have continued to rise in the European region, backed by the rising raw material cost, notably Tertiary Butyl Alcohol, and limited availability in the domestic market. Furthermore, the consequences of the ongoing energy crisis amidst the Russia-Ukraine war have further affected the product prices across the regional market. At the same time, the Producer Index (PI) was still hanging at a mounting level, forcing manufacturers' pockets. In addition, European energy prices have shot up coincided with the rising labour expenses, triggering concern among regional manufacturers. In addition, demand for Isobutylene in the fabrication of Butyl rubber and Polyisobutylene has remained stable to weak.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In the first quarter of 2022, sentiments about Isobutylene in North America were divided. Prices grew at the start of the quarter, then seesawed afterwards. Upstream crude oil prices have been impacted by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, resulting in a supply shortfall that has weighed on the high cost of Isobutylene in the domestic market of the United States. Because of the drop in crude oil prices, prices fell marginally in February. The price drop was linked to the abundance of inventory levels in February, which later decreased. In the first quarter of 2022, demand from downstream tire industries and gasoline additives fluctuated as well. As upstream crude and natural gas prices rebounded in the final month of the quarter, Isobutylene prices jumped by 11% as compared to the last quarter of 2021. During March, the prices of Isobutylene FD Texas were set at USD 1050/MT.
Asia Pacific
Isobutylene showed good market sentiments in the Asia-Pacific area during Q1 2022, in contrast to the last quarter of 2021. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had an influence on upstream crude oil prices, resulting in a supply deficit that has weighed on Isobutylene pricing in the Indian market. Strong demand from the tire and gasoline additives industries prompted businesses to increase their operating rates to protect revenues in the first quarter, affecting the market values of widely used raw materials such as Isobutylene. In addition, rising freight rates owing to a container shortage aided the region's high Isobutylene prices. Due to a scarcity of inventory in the domestic market, producers have been unable to meet local demand despite strong demand from the tire industry.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2022, Isobutylene prices in Europe continued to rise. High upstream crude oil prices, as well as a regional supply scarcity as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, had a substantial impact on production rates and operational costs. Furthermore, as Isobutylene are utilised in the production of elastomers, strong demand for them from tire and fuel additives has driven up prices. Furthermore, due to high energy prices in the European region, certain production units reduced their running rates. In March 2022, isobutylene prices were assessed at USD 1115/MT, up 6% over the previous quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
The overall market outlook of Isobutylene showed an upward trend in Q4 of 2021 across the North American region. Crude C4 value continued to increase due to shortage of natural gas as Isobutylene was produced in Crude C4 refinery system Therefore, the overall prices of Isobutylene increased across the regional market. The product price slightly declined in December due to short term ease in the price of crude oil. Meanwhile, New Year occasion and surging case of Omicron towards the last week led to temporary halt transportation and resulted into rise in the product price. However, Demand for Isobutylene from the downstream auto-manufacturing industry remain stable in the US market during Q4.
Asia Pacific
The domestic price of Isobutylene showed fluctuations in the Asia pacific region during the Q4 of 2021. Demand was increased from the downstream rubber industries with increasing utilization of natural rubber which hinder offtakes of Isobutylene in China. In the Indian market, variation in the price of upstream crude oil industry caused upward pressure on inflation and increased the cost of input for several industries which caused the transportation expensive and high freight charges. In the End of December, the price of Isobutylene slightly decrease the demand from downstream sector remains same.
Europe
All over the region, the market trend kept on fluctuating throughout the Q4 of 2021. High price of feedstock, such as Ethylene and Isobutane led to price increase for Isobutylene in the regional market. Additionally, increased in the price of crude oil, due to high consumption post increase in vaccination rate of Covid -19 and relaxation in pandemic related restriction also remained a major factor behind rising production cost in the regional market. Economic recovery in the regional countries resulted into rise in global petroleum demand, contributed to soaring input cost for several commodities including Isobutylene.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The overall market outlook of Isobutylene demonstrated an upward trajectory in Q3 2021 across the North American region. Demand for Isobutylene from the downstream auto manufacturing industry remained bullish in the US market during Q3. As a repercussion of Hurricane Ida, many plants went offline, resulting in the hampered production of C4 stream throughout Q3. Buoyed demand and strong raw material prices supported the offers for Isobutylene in the US market during the 3rd quarter.
Asia Pacific
The domestic market price of Isobutylene witnessed decent fluctuations in the Asia Pacific region during Q3 of 2021. In the Indian market, consistent upward crawl in upstream crude values coupled with strong demand for downstream sectors in the past few months continued to drive the momentum of Isobutylene prices. Ex-Works prices of Isobutylene were assessed at USD 1090/MT and USD 1665/MT in eastern India during September. Several traders revealed that the prices were already floating at their peak due to global crude oil price hikes and they were expecting coolness in prices later in the fourth quarter.
Europe
In the European region, some of the production units either curtailed their operating rates or were in a high-cost position due to escalations on the upstream front because of the high energy costs. As per market players, the material supply remained tight in Q3 due to lesser volumes. Crude C4 continued to stay bullish due to unplanned turnarounds at several producing belts and logistics remain a key concern of the downstream buyers.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
As the industries effectively recovered from the impact of winter storm in Q2, supply conditions marginally improved however the regional market still witnessed limited availability of Isobutylene. Efforts to replenish the inventories were strengthened ahead of the uncertainties of upcoming hurricane season. Demand has been exceptional from the downstream tire and plasticizers industries, whereas offtakes were consistent from the Automotive sector even though the automobile production was hindered amidst the semiconductor chipset shortage.
Asia pacific
In Q2 2021, supplies of Isobutylene remained balanced as the production was ample to meet the downstream end use demand. Whereas the surged consumption of natural rubber reduced the consumption of Butadiene, and negatively impacting the Isobutylene in the Asia Pacific market. Demand remained consistent from the downstream product industries and tire sector. Whereas in India due to the second COVID wave market activities were subdued in the second quarter, as a ripple effect the prices of Isobutylene eased in the Indian market with Ex-Work Chennai prices drifting to USD 17817 per tonne in June.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2021, supply improved with increment in operating rates in several manufacturing facilities. Demand surged as most US buyers preferred European shipments over Northeast Asian cargoes due to better freight charges. Demand also improved following the improved offtakes from automotive sector. As a repercussion, the pricing trend in the European market remains marginally buoyed by the tight supply and high demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
Supplies in the North American region were tight during the first quarter, due to the low inventory levels and shortages of the key feedstock as the industrial infrastructure collapsed in the USA Gulf region amid subzero temperature in mid-February. Several producing facilities were forced to shut down due to polar winter storm. Demand witnessed a downtrend as production activities were hampered throughout the North American region. Furthermore, enquiries of Isobutylene reduced from the butyl rubber market due to disrupted auto manufacturing. The supply-demand gap widened, consequently raising the prices of Isobutylene for the March and April deliveries.
Asia-Pacific
The Asian Isobutylene market witnessed surge in supplies during Q1 2021, however demand was curtailed from the downstream rubber industries with increasing utilization of natural rubber which hampered offtakes of Isobutylene in China. Later in the quarter, some constraints were witnessed during the Chinese lunar New Year holidays as several plants in the northeast Asian region declared force majeures. Lesser demand pressured the prices of Isobutylene in the first quarter which higher shipping freight charges added on to trader’s worry. Isobutylene CFR prices in India were assessed at USD 18221 per tonne in March.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2021, supplies in the European region were tight, owing to low production rates at several plants in northwest Europe due to limited availability of the feedstock Ethylene and Isobutane. Trade from the Antwerp-Amsterdam-Rotterdam route was disrupted amid severe winter season which led to the transportation lag. Demand from the downstream sector surged due to better offtakes from the rubber industry to meet the orders from the recovering automotive sector.
For the Quarter Ending December 2020
North America
During Q4 2020 in USA, prices of Isobutylene increased following consistent increment in values of upstream crude oil. Besides, continuous increase in demand from downstream market led to increase in feedstock prices as well as the prices of their derivatives. In line, prices of LLDPE, a derivative of Isobutylene surged from USD 950 to USD 980 USD per tonne from October to December in US. Another reason behind this rise in prices was hurricane zeta, which caused force majeure on several plants around US coast which led to a shortage in various petrochemical feedstocks.
Asia
During Q4 2020, Asian countries experienced significant recovery in industrial activities, that led to an appreciable rise in demand for petrochemicals like Isobutylene. This rise in demand ultimately led to an increase in prices of isobutylene from 17548.4 USD per tonne to 18198.7 USD per tonne from October to December 2020 in India. Meanwhile, price of Isobutylene also rose due to significant demand for downstream products like LLDPE (Linear Low-Density Polyethylene) in Asia Pacific region. Owing to the bullish market outlook for feedstocks, prices of downstream LLDPE increased from USD 1157.6 to 1306.2 per tonne during Q4 2020.
Europe
European countries faced shortage of several upstream products including Isobutylene during Q4 2020 on reduced imports from USA due to spate of hurricanes that caused force majeure on several plants. This shortage led to increase in prices of various feedstocks including isobutylene along with downstream products like LLDPE. Consequently, price of Isobutylene derivative LLDPE, rose from USD 991.18 per tonne to USD 1039.5 per tonne from October to December.
