Major market players in China and US announced force majeures which caused supply disruption, yet the market persisted due to lower demand.

Key Takeaways:

• HDPE prices remained stable in the US and Europe.
• HDPE prices in China fell as trading slowed due to Lunar New Year holidays.
• European HDPE prices remained steady.
• US HDPE market saw stable prices despite winter storm Enzo.

In the last week of January 2025, the global market remained stable with High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) prices holding steady in the US despite supply disruptions and increasing feedstock Ethylene costs. However, Winter Storm Enzo brought record snowfall and extreme cold to the Gulf Coast that disrupted production in Texas and Louisiana. The harsh weather led to several unplanned outages, compounding the impact of ongoing scheduled maintenance. 

Formosa Plastics Corporation USA’s HDPE plant in Point Comfort, Texas, underwent a force majeure on January 20 due to weather disruptions. It produces 56,250 tonnes of HDPE monthly. Similarly, INEOS Olefins & Polymers has temporarily halted production at its Sweeny Facility in Texas, affecting 66,250 tonnes per month of HDPE output.

These plant closures could have caused a significant market deficit in the US. This  was offset due to a lower demand of HDPE due to harsh weather conditions in January. Both the plants are expected to resume operations after around 12 days of downtime, when the demand is expected to rise as the weather clears in February.

In Europe, the market prices for HDPE remained unchanged despite rising feedstock ethylene costs and higher production expenses. Apart from a brief surge in demand from restocking activities, the overall market sentiment remained weak. Its end-user industries like construction and packaging continued to struggle with inflationary pressures.

Our analysts forecast a price surge in the US and European markets as supply constraints are expected to persist. Plant outages and adverse weather conditions could further influence global pricing trends.

In China, HDPE prices dropped by 0.5% for Injection Molding grade for EXW Jiangsu because of a decrease in demand of HDPE due to the ongoing Lunar New Year holidays. Additionally, China’s Sinopec Zhongyuan Petrochemical – an HDPE manufacturing giant – also declared force majeure on its production unit in Puyang, China, citing annual maintenance. But the 25,000 tonnes per month plant had little to no effect on price increase as the demand also decreased. The prices saw a minor decline in the Chinese and Taiwanese markets in last of week of January.

Additionally, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade restrictions on Chinese imports in the USA has further weighed on the market. Our analysts warn that prolonged tariff negotiations could erode market confidence, even if the proposed 10% tariff eventually materializes.

The overall global demand across major regions stayed moderately low, impacting market sentiment, while rising feedstock costs and seasonal factors added pressure. ChemAnalyst forecasts that HDPE prices in Asia are likely to rise in February as market activity resumes following the Lunar New Year holidays.