For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in North America experienced a notable decline, driven by weakening demand across key sectors like packaging, construction, and automotive. Easing feedstock Ethylene prices indicated a potential oversupply, putting additional pressure on the market. The region was also impacted by logistical disruptions, including hurricanes that affected operations, and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike at U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports, further delaying shipments and exacerbating supply chain challenges.
The U.S. Presidential Election created an environment of uncertainty, which led to reduced investments and inventory accumulation. Despite these challenges, some cautious optimism remained regarding a future demand recovery, fueled by expectations of lower interest rates and a potential stabilization in the political environment. However, by December, market conditions remained volatile, influenced by the looming ILA strike and the anticipated tariff hikes under the incoming Trump Administration. These tariffs raised concerns over trade flows and resin price stability.
In Mexico, the HDPE market saw the most significant price adjustments, with prices declining due to weak demand, stable supply levels, and the influx of low-cost imported materials. The quarter ended with HDPE Blow Molding Grade CFR Veracruz prices quoted at USD 1214/MT in December, reflecting the overall market slowdown.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the APAC region experienced a notable decline, driven by weakened demand across key downstream sectors, including packaging, construction, and automotive. The easing cost of crude oil by mid-quarter, influenced by maintenance shutdowns at Chinese refineries and reduced imports, further pressured prices. While these facilities restarted, boosting supply, traders lowered prices to manage the high product availability. Rising shipping costs and cautious buyer behavior amid global political and economic uncertainties dampened international market activity, with regional markets maintaining a steady to slightly stronger trend due to currency depreciation benefiting local sellers. In Southeast Asia, limited deals and reduced Middle Eastern cargoes kept prices subdued. Oversupply from the Middle East and the U.S., combined with declining regional demand, pushed buyers to avoid inventory accumulation ahead of year-end. Seasonal factors, including weaker demand for packaging and greenhouse films, further contributed to the market's softness. The interplay of high supply levels and tepid demand continued to weigh on pricing sentiment, leaving traders with limited support to sustain prices. By December, geopolitical uncertainties, including potential tariff reimpositions under a prospective Trump administration, added to the market’s instability. Japan witnessed the most significant price changes, with a noticeable drop as the HDPE Blow molding Grade FOB Tokyo prices fell to USD 988/MT in December 2024, highlighting the region’s negative pricing sentiment and broader challenges of oversupply and subdued demand throughout the quarter.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in Europe experienced a steady decline, driven by falling feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha prices, coupled with weak demand from key sectors like construction and automotive. Economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties further pressured market dynamics, as buyers hesitated to make significant purchases in anticipation of continued price reductions. Sellers, facing diminished demand, sought to offload inventory, exacerbating the oversupply situation. Subdued trading activity and reduced production costs failed to offset the downturn, with market sentiment remaining fragile throughout the quarter. The decline in Asia-Europe ocean freight rates, driven by early post-peak shipping schedules, reduced import demand, and further impacted HDPE prices in the region. Seasonal factors, such as the year-end holiday slowdown, compounded the drop in demand across downstream industries. In the Eurozone, historically low housing activity added to the slump, with housing construction showing no signs of recovery and contributing to lower HDPE demand. By December, market sentiment remained fragile amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and mild winter weather, which softened energy consumption. The UK saw the most significant price fluctuations, with HDPE Injection FD prices in West Yorkshire quoted at USD 1280/MT, underscoring the challenging pricing environment throughout the quarter.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the MEA region experienced mixed dynamics, beginning with a brief rise in prices due to increasing crude oil costs and geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which disrupted critical shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. However, as the quarter progressed, prices declined due to easing feedstock Ethylene costs and moderate to low demand from downstream sectors such as packaging and construction. While demand from domestic and overseas markets, particularly Asia, remained consistent, it was insufficient to drive a strong recovery, with economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions further weighing on market sentiment. Export activity to Asian markets stayed steady but lacked momentum amid subdued demand and competitive U.S. offers, which added pressure to the regional HDPE market. Lengthened supplies and reduced production costs in Saudi Arabia, driven by softened Ethylene prices, helped stabilize pricing temporarily, but overall market conditions remained bearish. By year-end, seasonal destocking, and cautious buyer behavior, coupled with low overseas demand, kept sentiment weak. In the UAE, HDPE prices followed the broader regional trend, consistently declining throughout the quarter. By December, HDPE Injection Moulding Grade FOB Jebel Ali was quoted at USD 1044/MT, underscoring the persistent challenges of oversupply, geopolitical uncertainties, and subdued demand impacting the MEA HDPE market.
South America
In Q4 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in South America faced a significant downturn, primarily driven by weakening demand across key sectors such as packaging, construction, and automotive. Lower costs of imported materials, particularly from North America, combined with ample regional supply, prompted traders to reduce prices to maintain market balance. Brazil experienced the most notable price adjustments, with demand remaining moderate and insufficient to drive recovery. The strike involving approximately 60,000 Brazilian port workers on October 22 disrupted vessel operations and reduced port productivity, further straining logistics and market conditions. This added complexity to an already cautious market environment, as weak consumption continued to dampen demand growth throughout November. By December, year-end destocking further limited activity, with the slow recovery in the construction and automotive sectors curtailing the potential for a more pronounced rebound. HDPE Blow Molding Grade CFR Santos prices in Brazil were quoted at USD 1065/MT by the quarter's end, reflecting the persistent challenges of supply-demand imbalances, logistical disruptions, and external market pressures impacting the South American HDPE market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in North America exhibited a mixed trend characterized by an initial price surge in July, followed by a decline for the remainder of the quarter. The overall market experienced a decrease compared to the same period last year, driven by moderate to low demand from key sectors such as construction, automotive, and packaging.
Compounding these challenges were supply constraints resulting from production disruptions and adverse weather conditions due to hurricanes in the region, which negatively impacted logistics and operations. The fluctuating prices of feedstock Ethylene, along with upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices, further influenced market dynamics.
Moreover, Mexico faced the most significant price adjustments as the drop in prices was attributed to weakened demand, stable supply levels, competitive pricing from other regions, and the low cost of imported materials. Consequently, the quarter concluded with a notable easing of HDPE Blow molding Grade CFR Veracruz prices, decreasing by 0.5% in September compared to the previous month. This overall trend reflected a stable to negative pricing environment in the region, highlighting the complex interplay of demand and supply factors affecting the HDPE market.
APAC
In Q3 2024, High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) prices in the APAC region exhibited a declining trend, highlighting a challenging market environment. This downtrend was influenced by weakened demand across key downstream sectors, including packaging, construction, and automotive industries. High supply levels further pressured the market, as sluggish demand and cautious buying behavior among importers exacerbated the situation. The easing of feedstock Ethylene prices and fluctuations in Crude oil costs also contributed to the overall decline in HDPE prices, impacting market dynamics throughout the quarter. Moreover, Typhoon Yagi disrupted supply chains across Asia, particularly affecting southern China and Vietnam, exacerbating logistical difficulties. The super typhoon wreaked havoc on northern Vietnam and caused heavy rains across southern China, leading to delays in ocean logistics out of Haiphong, vessel hold-ups in the region, and container terminal shutdowns in Hong Kong. Severe weather across East Asian ports intensified congestion at Chinese ports, with waiting times at key ports like Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao, and Yantian due to vessel bunching, further straining the supply chain. Japan, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes, with a noticeable drop compared to the same period last year. By the end of the quarter, HDPE Blowmolding Grade FOB Tokyo prices showed a decrease of 1.1% in September compared to the previous month, emphasizing the prevailing negative pricing sentiment in the region. This decline underscored the broader challenges facing the APAC HDPE market, marked by oversupply and weakened downstream demand, which collectively pressured prices downward throughout the quarter.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in Europe experienced a notable upward trend in prices, driven by several key factors. The increasing costs of feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha significantly impacted production expenses, exerting substantial cost pressures on HDPE products. Further, fluctuations in crude oil prices further influenced market dynamics, adding to the complexity of pricing strategies. Geopolitical tensions in the region contributed to supply constraints, while port congestions restricted the availability of various HDPE grades, exacerbating the price surge. Moreover, the overall supply of HDPE tightened considerably, particularly in September, as the manufacturing sector faced a sharp decline. This decline was characterized by significant reductions in new orders, purchasing activities, and employment levels, further straining supply chains. In the UK, the most pronounced price fluctuations were observed, with prices showing a consistent upward trajectory compared to the previous quarter. For instance, the price of HDPE Injection FD in West Yorkshire surged by 3.1% in August, followed by a modest increase of 0.6% in September, indicating a stable and favorable pricing environment throughout the quarter.
MEA
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the MEA region experienced a notable decline in prices, influenced by several critical factors. The significant decrease can be primarily attributed to a weakened global economic outlook, leading to subdued demand from downstream sectors such as construction, packaging, and automotive industries. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions further impacted market sentiment, contributing to uncertainty among buyers and suppliers. The easing price trajectory of feedstock Ethylene, coupled with fluctuating Crude oil prices, played a crucial role in driving HDPE prices lower throughout the quarter. In the UAE, the market saw the most significant price adjustments compared to other countries in the region, reflecting local market dynamics. The UAE experienced a consistent decrease in HDPE prices, mirroring the broader trend across the MEA region. This decline, in comparison to the same quarter last year, highlighted the challenging conditions faced by the industry. By the end of the quarter, HDPE prices in Jebel Ali, UAE, reflected a 0.4% decrease from the previous month, signaling the culmination of the downward pricing environment and underscoring the persistent pressures impacting the HDPE market in the region.
South America
In Q3 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in South America displayed a mixed trend, with prices initially rising before declining for the remainder of the quarter, ultimately resulting in a bearish outlook. Several factors influenced this trend, including ample supply levels, subdued demand from key downstream industries like packaging and construction, and lower costs of imported materials from major markets. Further, the easing of feedstock Ethylene prices reduced cost pressures, contributing to the decline in HDPE prices as imported material prices softened. The market also faced logistical and production challenges due to weather-related disruptions, further affecting pricing dynamics throughout the region. Brazil, in particular, saw the most notable price adjustments, with a consistent downward trend throughout the quarter as the market struggled with weak demand and abundant supply. By the end of the quarter, HDPE Blow Molding Grade CFR Santos in Brazil registered a 0.5% decrease in September compared to the previous month, highlighting the negative sentiment prevailing in the market. This trend underscored the impact of supply-demand imbalances and external factors such as logistics and feedstock fluctuations on the South American HDPE market in Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in North America experienced a sustained decline in prices, however, surged in the last month of the quarter. The primary reason for this downward trend was the low cost of imported materials, which exerted significant pressure on domestic market prices.
Despite stable feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha prices, ample stock availability further encouraged traders to maintain lower pricing levels. Further, moderate demand from downstream sectors such as construction and packaging failed to absorb the existing supply, reinforcing the downward pricing trajectory. This situation was compounded by high freight rates from the Middle East and Asia, driving international buyers towards competitively priced U.S. resin, thus influencing the overall market dynamics.
Further, seasonality influenced demand, with the onset of summer typically heightening activity in key industries. However, this seasonal surge was insufficient to counterbalance the prevailing surplus. The latest quarter-ending price stood at USD 1301/MT for HDPE Blow Molding grade CFR Veracruz (Mexico). Overall, the pricing sentiment for HDPE in Q2 2024 was negative, though it rebounded by quarter end, driven by supply and demand dynamics.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the APAC region experienced notable price increases driven by several significant factors. Predominantly, these price hikes were influenced by a combination of elevated upstream crude oil costs, rising freight rates, and tight supply due to ongoing plant maintenance across the region. Despite some stabilization in feedstock Ethylene prices, the overall market sentiment remained robust, bolstered by steady demand from downstream construction, packaging, and automotive sectors. Critical logistical challenges, such as vessel congestion and container shortages, further exacerbated the supply constraints, leading to higher costs and sustained price elevation. Focusing on Japan, the HDPE market saw the most substantial price changes. The quarter witnessed a steady upward trend, influenced by factors such as seasonal procurement activities and increased manufacturing output. Concluding the quarter, the price of HDPE Blowmolding Grade FOB Tokyo was USD 1030/MT. This consistent increase underscores the positive pricing environment, driven by strong demand fundamentals and supply chain disruptions, projecting a bullish outlook for the HDPE market in Japan and other Asian markets.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market experienced a pronounced decline in pricing, driven primarily by an oversupply situation and subdued demand across key sectors. The persistence of an excess supply, despite stable feedstock Ethylene prices, was exacerbated by a consistent inflow of imports from the USA and the Middle East. Additionally, higher logistics costs and delays, due to cargo re-routing, further compounded market pressures. Further, coupled with weak economic conditions, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors, heavily influenced market dynamics, precipitating a bearish trend. Focusing on the UK, which witnessed significant price fluctuations, the HDPE market displayed a stark downward trajectory. The country’s HDPE prices were particularly volatile, reflecting broader regional trends of ample supply against stagnant demand. The overall trend demonstrated a clear seasonal effect, with prices declining substantially in the second half of the quarter. The quarter concluded with HDPE Injection grade prices reaching USD 1273/MT in West Yorkshire, UK. This consistent downward pressure underscores a negative pricing environment for HDPE in the region. The persistent supply-demand imbalance, coupled with macroeconomic strains, has cemented a negative sentiment in the market, reflecting the challenges faced by producers and converters in managing costs and maintaining profitability amidst weakening market fundamentals.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the MEA region experienced an overall decrease in prices, however, witnessed an escalation in June, by quarter end. Several factors contributed to this trend, including easing feedstock Ethylene prices and Crude oil price fluctuations. The construction and packaging sectors showed a decrease in demand for HDPE, while geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, particularly in the Red Sea, affected supply. Freight rates saw a slight increase, but the impact on overall pricing remained contained due to balanced market conditions. In the United Arab Emirates, the HDPE market exhibited the most notable price changes within the MEA region. Though the trend remained declining, nevertheless, it rebounded in June amid an escalation in the freight rates amid Red Sea disturbances and port congestions in the Asian region. which has impacted the prices of the products globally and has led to a price surge. The overall trend signifies a depreciating pricing environment, with the latest quarter-ending price for HDPE Injection Molding FOB Jebel Ali standing at USD 1083/MT.
South America
In Q2 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in South America experienced a sustained decline in prices, with a marginal surge in the last month of the quarter. This downward trend was primarily due to the low cost of imported materials from North America, which exerted significant pressure on domestic market prices. Despite stable feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha prices, ample stock availability encouraged traders to maintain lower pricing levels. Additionally, moderate demand from downstream sectors such as construction and packaging failed to absorb the existing supply, reinforcing the downward pricing trajectory. High freight rates from the Middle East and Asia further influenced market dynamics, driving international buyers toward competitively priced U.S. resin. Seasonal demand fluctuations, with the onset of summer typically heightening activity in key industries, were insufficient to counterbalance the prevailing surplus. By the end of the quarter, the price of HDPE Film grade CFR Santos in Brazil stood at USD 1268/MT. Overall, the pricing sentiment for HDPE in Q2 2024 was negative, though it rebounded by quarter-end due to supply and demand dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has witnessed a significant increase in High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) prices in the North American region. Several factors have contributed to this upward trend. The market has experienced robust demand from various sectors, including construction and packaging, driving prices higher.
Further, logistical challenges and disruptions in shipping routes have led to supply chain disruptions, exacerbating the price increase. The cost of imported materials has also played a role, with higher prices for feedstock Ethylene impacting the overall cost of HDPE. Mexico has seen the maximum price changes within the region. The market in Mexico has remained stable, with consistent demand from the downstream construction industry. However, the cost of imported material from the USA has led to price escalation in the domestic market.
The price of HDPE in Mexico has increased by 8% compared to the previous quarter in 2024. There has also been a 6% price increase between the first and second half of the quarter. Overall, the pricing environment for HDPE in the North American region has been positive, with increasing market dynamics and strong demand driving prices higher.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the APAC region witnessed an overall increasing trend except for China which showed fluctuations over the period. The Asian HDPE market experienced an upward trajectory in prices, primarily attributed to heightened expenses in feedstock Ethylene and increased demand. Ethylene costs surged directly impacting HDPE production expenses, while elevated prices of upstream Naphtha further compounded the cost pressures. Further, fluctuations in Crude oil prices were observed, particularly during the Spring Festival period, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and anticipated production cuts by oil-producing nations. Subsequently demand from the Chinese market witnessed an uptick by the end of the quarter, especially in downstream sectors such as construction and automotive, despite a prior downturn in construction demand noted in February. Furthermore, in Japan, the prices of HDPE showed a positive trend, experiencing a surge of 5% by the end of the quarter. This upward movement in prices can be attributed to several factors, including an improved economic outlook, increased infrastructure projects, and a steady rise in consumer demand.
Europe
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) pricing in the Europe region for Q1 2024 has experienced an overall increasing trend. The quarter has been characterized by significant factors that have influenced market prices. These factors include supply chain disruptions, rising freight rates, and challenges in the Red Sea region. These disruptions have led to constraints in supply and delays in shipping, impacting the availability of HDPE material in the market. The overall trend in the UK has been positive, with prices increasing by 5% compared to the previous quarter. This is in line with the overall trend in Europe, where prices have also increased by 5% during the same period. When compared to the same quarter last year, HDPE prices have seen a decline of 10%. However, the recent price increase indicates a positive shift in the pricing environment. The quarter has also witnessed a price comparison between the first and second half, with prices remaining stable during this period. This further indicates the overall stability and positive sentiment in the HDPE pricing environment. The latest quarter-ending price for HDPE Injection grade FD West Yorkshire in the UK surged by 5%. This reflects the increasing trend in prices during the quarter and confirms the positive pricing environment for HDPE in Germany.
MEA
During Q1 2024, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market in the MEA region experienced an overall increase in prices, however, witnessed a decline in January and the n surged for the rest of the quarter. The market was influenced by several significant factors, including rising costs of feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha, as well as strong global market conditions and stable demand from downstream packaging and construction sectors. These factors contributed to a positive trend in product prices. The Middle Eastern countries saw a 7% increase in prices compared to the same quarter last year. Additionally, there was a 7% increase in prices from the previous quarter in 2024. Overall, the pricing environment for HDPE in the MEA region during Q1 2024 has been positive, with prices consistently increasing. The quarter-ending price in the UAE surged by 5% for HDPE Injection Molding FOB Jebel Ali.
These price increases reflect the strong demand for HDPE from domestic and international markets, as well as the impact of rising feedstock costs and favorable global market conditions. The market is expected to continue its positive trend in the coming quarters.
South America
The first quarter of 2024 has witnessed a significant increase in High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) prices in the South American region. Several factors have contributed to this upward trend. The market has experienced robust demand from various sectors, including construction and packaging, driving prices higher. Further, logistical challenges and disruptions in shipping routes have led to supply chain disruptions, exacerbating the price increase. The cost of imported materials has also played a role, with higher prices for feedstock Ethylene impacting the overall cost of HDPE. Brazil has seen the maximum price changes within the region. The market in Brazil has remained stable, with consistent demand from the downstream construction sector. However, the cost of imported materials has led to price escalation in the domestic market. Consequently, the price of HDPE in Brazil increased by 3% for Film grade CFR Santos by the quarter end. Overall, the pricing environment for HDPE in the South American region has been positive, with increasing market dynamics and strong demand driving prices higher.
