Global HDPE Market Stabilise in Late June, Hurricane Season in the USA Poses a Supply Threat

In the last week of June 2024, the global High-density Polyethylene (HDPE) market exhibited overall stability, with distinct regional trends. While the Asian and European markets saw stable HDPE prices due to low demand from the downstream construction, packaging, and automotive sectors amid supply constraints and rising freight rates, the US market experienced an increasing trend. Robust demand and the impact of the hurricane season, specifically Hurricane Beryl's movement through the Caribbean, added volatility to US trading activities. These dynamics were shaped by declining demand, constrained supplies, and the cost of feedstock Ethylene and upstream Crude oil. Geopolitical tensions further disrupted major supply routes, causing shipping rates to soar amid congestion and rising demand. Consequently, the price of HDPE in the USA surged by 1% for Injection Molding grade FOB Texas for the week ending June 28, 2024.

The US HDPE market continued its upward trend this week, driven by strong downstream demand. Trading activity remained robust, albeit slightly slower compared to earlier in the month, with both buyers and sellers eager to transact, resulting in above-average sales. Resellers were actively covering orders from earlier in the month, buying truckloads to fill supply gaps. The export market for HDPE also stayed busy, facing upward pricing pressure due to escalating freight rates and delayed shipments out of Asia, largely caused by disruptions and elevated risk in Red Sea shipping lanes. As export prices for HDPE continued to rise, international markets such as Latin America, Asia, and Europe provided easy outlets for incremental sales, creating a rising price floor that supported the domestic market.  Further, the early activity in the Atlantic Ocean aligns with forecasts predicting a busier-than-usual hurricane season. Damage from hurricanes often leads to increased demand for chemicals, yet these storms can also disrupt the North American petrochemical industry, as many of the nation's plants and refineries are concentrated along the US Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana. This dual impact could influence HDPE prices in the coming months, potentially driving them higher due to supply chain disruptions and heightened demand for reconstruction materials. The ongoing hurricane season thus introduces an additional layer of uncertainty and volatility to the market.

Meanwhile, the Asian HDPE market experienced stable prices as the previous week due to a balanced supply and demand scenario.  The HDPE market was influenced by feedstock Ethylene prices, which rose in response to increasing upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices. Crude oil prices held steady at their highest levels in nearly two months, driven by concerns over Middle Eastern violence and robust U.S. demand. Further, global port congestion has surged to an 18-month high, with 60% of ships waiting at anchor in Asia, particularly affecting ports in Singapore, Malaysia, and China. This congestion, reported by maritime data firm Linerlytica, has led to higher freight rates, impacting HDPE prices. Despite these pressures, demand for HDPE from downstream industries remained moderately low by the month's end, prompting traders to maintain stable prices.