The Hot Dipped Galvanized (HDG) coil markets exhibited robust performance across major regions in early February 2025, with Germany experiencing the most significant increase, followed by the USA and China. These price movements reflect diverse regional dynamics, including trade measures in Europe, rising market sentiment in the USA, and a post-holiday recovery in China.

Key Takeaways:

• European HDG prices surge 4% amid tight supply and trade restrictions
• US HDG market shows 2.5% increase supported by positive buyer sentiment
• Chinese HDG prices rise 2% despite cautious end-user demand
• ArcelorMittal announces €30 per ton price increase for April
• Global automotive sector provides demand support
• Supply chains show regional variations in tightness

The HDG market's trajectory varies significantly by region, with Europe experiencing the strongest price gains. European manufacturers report full order books for Q1, with domestic supply increasingly favoured amid EU trade measure uncertainties. The market has seen improved purchasing activity despite modest overall trading volumes.

In the United States, HDG price increases reflect renewed optimism among steel buyers, marking the highest sentiment readings in months. The market benefits from improving automotive sales, with January marking the fourth consecutive month of gains at 3.8%. Supply remains moderately available despite some extension in lead times, while import volumes showed recovery in January.

Chinese HDG market dynamics present a more complex picture, with prices rising 2% despite fluctuating demand patterns. Operating rates at galvanizing facilities increased to 24.69%, up 12.38 percentage points post-holiday, with projections reaching 53.4% in the coming week. However, the manufacturing PMI's decline to 49.1% suggests ongoing challenges in industrial activity.

Regional supply dynamics show distinct patterns. European HDG producers maintain tight control over supply, with major manufacturers sold out through Q1. U.S. suppliers demonstrate flexibility in negotiations while maintaining price increases. Chinese producers are gradually resuming operations post-holiday, with larger enterprises already operational and smaller ones expected to restart after the Lantern Festival.

Demand patterns vary significantly across regions. European HDG demand remains moderate but receives support from automotive production growth forecasts. U.S. demand benefits from positive buyer sentiment and construction sector recovery. Chinese demand remains in a verification phase, with NEV sales showing mixed signals a 31% year-on-year increase but 40% monthly decline in January.

The competitive landscape has intensified, particularly in Europe, where trade measures are reshaping import-export dynamics. U.S. markets show balanced competition between domestic and import sources, while Chinese markets focus on internal demand recovery post-holiday.

As per ChemAnalyst, the global HDG market outlook for 2025 remains region-specific, with Europe expected to maintain its premium pricing on trade protection measures and tight supply. The U.S. market is positioned for steady growth, supported by automotive and construction sector recovery, while Chinese market development will depend heavily on post-holiday demand materialization and real estate sector performance. Key factors to watch include EU trade measure implementation, U.S. manufacturing recovery sustainability, and Chinese real estate sector stabilization. Overall, while current price trends show strength, regional variations in economic conditions and sector-specific demands will continue to influence market dynamics throughout 2025.