Despite varying regional challenges and ongoing trade tensions, Hot Dipped Galvanized Coil (HDG) prices remained stable in Germany, the United States, and China in the final week of March 2025. This price equilibrium occurs as markets deal with supply constraints, trade policy shifts, and fluctuating demand patterns.

Key Takeaways:

• Germany: HDG prices held steady with limited availability for Q2 delivery
• USA: Nucor moderated HDG price increases after weeks of upward momentum
• China: HDG markets stabilized despite production cuts and new export rules
• Feedstock: Underlying HRC prices remained a key factor in HDG pricing strategies
• Trade Dynamics: Anti-dumping investigations impacted export flows, particularly from China

Despite supply shortages, German HDG markets showed tenacity, as prices remained steady until the end of March. Due to major producers reporting limited coil availability for the second quarter, suppliers tried to quote higher prices for June delivery. With modest weekly gains, the Northern European index moved very little. Amid new car import taxes, buyers expressed scepticism about possible price hikes, pointing to weak underlying demand, especially from the automotive industry. In an otherwise stable market, force majeure events created pressure points by complicating HDG procurement.

The US HDG market found equilibrium after several weeks of continuous price increases, with Nucor implementing only modest adjustments. Lead times remained consistent at three to five weeks across mills. Market assessments indicated HDG prices stayed within expected ranges, with stable average quotes compared to previous weeks. Industry reactions to tariff policies remained divided, with mixed opinions regarding their impact on market dynamics. Though inventory movement was slower compared to last year, gradual demand improvement has begun to emerge, supporting current HDG price levels without driving further increases.

Chinese HDG prices stabilized despite earlier expectations of decline, supported by a 23% week-over-week increase in total steel exports. Strategic production cuts from companies like Xinjiang Bayi Iron and Steel (announcing a 10% reduction) bolstered market sentiment. Major steel-producing provinces including Shandong and Jiangsu indicated similar plans, easing supply-demand imbalance concerns. New export tax rules aimed at simplifying processes had minimal immediate impact on HDG pricing, though longer-term export volume concerns persist due to anti-dumping investigations from key trading partners.

Global HDG trade continues facing challenges from protectionist measures and fluctuating raw material costs. European buyers have delayed major HDG purchases pending safeguards reviews and anti-dumping investigation outcomes. Import competition remains significant, though regulatory uncertainties have limited transaction volumes in most regions.

According to ChemAnalyst, prices in Germany may show resilience in the coming week based on HDG market developments through Q2 2025, which will depend on the resolution of underlying HRC feedstock cost pressures, trade policy clarity, and recovery in key consuming sectors, particularly automotive and construction. The American HDG markets could remain stable, but face headwinds from potential demand deterioration. Chinese HDG exports will most likely continue to face regulatory pressure, resulting in regional supply gaps that could impact global price dynamics until mid-year, with expected production discipline serving as a critical market balancing factor.