Global Ammonia market experienced a modest decline in prices during the inaugural week of March 2025 driven by a variety of factors. Primarily restricted downstream demand particularly for Urea amidst speculations of Indian tender also raised concerns for Ammonia procurement, thus driving down the demand and exerting downward pressure on Ammonia pricing. Other factors like inadequate weather conditions and faded planting season demand also played major roles in supporting the current price trend.

In the Middle Eastern market, a modest decline in Ammonia prices during the inaugural week of March 2025, mirroring the trend followed during the previous week. The price of essential feedstock Natural Gas was also declining during the same period of time prompting towards reduced production rates thus exerting downward pressure on Ammonia pricing. On the demand front, market activity remained steady, with no new bids or enquires observed from the domestic sector particularly from Morocco despite of ongoing wheat planting season within the region.  Morocco has faced significant challenges in wheat planting due to a prolonged drought conditions within the region, which delayed the beginning of the 2025 season and adversely impacted crop planting. As a result, final crop yields are now highly dependent on rainfall in February and March. Given these uncertainties, traders have adopted a cautious approach, and refrained from making bulk purchases, which has subsequently slowed Ammonia demand in the market.

However, despite this, dwindling demand supplies remained sufficient, particularly from the Trinidad and North American market. Trinidad upheld its export commitments, with sustained fertilizer shipments despite natural gas issues within the country. Further, favorable trade agreements and logistical adjustments facilitated uninterrupted deliveries to Brazilian ports. Further, Middle Eastern Ammonia exports particularly from Saudi Arabia also contributed to the steady supply scenario.

Similarly in Brazil, Ammonia prices experienced a modest decline marking a sharp contrast from the trend observed during the previous few weeks amidst completion of buying for the second corn season. Insights gathered from various market participants suggest that fertilizer requirements in Brazil for this planting cycle have been fully met, leading to a notable decline in current spot purchases. As a result, there has been a lack of fresh buying interest, and transactional volumes in the open market have remained minimum.

Likewise, the Ammonia market in India remained pessimistic with prices witnessing no major fluctuations amidst limited enquiries for Ammonia from the downstream market. Muted demand of downstream derivative Urea during the same period of time amidst delayed tender has led to slower buying interest of Ammonia buyers. Further, faded Kharif season demand has also exerted downward pressure on Ammonia prices.

According to ChemAnalyst, it is anticipated that the prices of Ammonia may continue to decline in the forthcoming days owing to faded seasonal demand and declining feedstock prices.