For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the North American Ammonia market experienced a modest decline in prices, influenced by a combination of adequate supply and subdued demand. Sufficient availability of both domestically produced and imported Ammonia, supported by earlier stockpiling efforts, helped maintain balanced inventories across the region.
On the demand side, purchasing activity remained muted, primarily due to adverse winter weather conditions that hindered transportation and discouraged buyers from building inventory. Many market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach, delaying procurement until weather patterns stabilized. Despite intermittent trade disruptions, the market remained well-supplied, as previous inventory buildup helped mitigate potential shortfalls.
Adding to the market's complexity, the U.S. government announced plans to implement a 10% tariff on Ammonia imports from Trinidad and Tobago, one of the country’s key suppliers. This policy moves introduced uncertainty into the import supply chain, prompting concerns over future cost implications and potential shifts in sourcing strategies. Overall, the quarter was marked by stable supply conditions and cautious market sentiment.
APAC
The Asian Ammonia market exhibited price volatility during Q1 2025, with China experiencing the most notable fluctuations. In the early part of the quarter, Chinese Ammonia prices witnessed a modest decline, primarily due to improved supply conditions. Production gradually recovered as several domestic manufacturers resumed operations following scheduled maintenance shutdowns, leading to higher operating rates and increased Ammonia availability. This supply expansion, however, was met with weak demand, particularly from key downstream sectors such as fertilizers and chemicals, resulting in excess inventory and downward price pressure. Toward the end of the quarter, prices in China rebounded, driven by a rise in restocking activity from domestic consumers amid growing demand for downstream derivatives, especially urea, ahead of the spring application season. In contrast, importing countries in Asia, such as Japan, recorded a consistent decline in Ammonia prices throughout the quarter. This trend was largely supported by reduced freight costs, which eased overall import expenses and contributed to sustained downward pressure on prices.
European
The European Ammonia market witnessed a modest decline in prices throughout Q1 2025, with Germany and the Netherlands among the most affected markets. This downward trend was primarily driven by a narrowing gap between supply and demand. During the quarter, the region saw a steady inflow of cargoes from key exporting countries, particularly Trinidad and Tobago. Despite facing natural gas curtailments, Trinidad and Tobago prioritized fulfilling prior export commitments, enabling European buyers to access Ammonia at relatively lower costs. These competitive imports further pressured domestic prices. On the demand front, purchasing activity remained subdued. Although the planting season was underway, dry weather across parts of Europe led farmers to delay the second round of nitrogen fertilizer applications in anticipation of rainfall. Additionally, winter wheat emerged from dormancy earlier than usual due to unseasonably warm and dry conditions, exacerbating soil moisture deficits and raising concerns about crop health and yield outcomes. These agronomic challenges dampened immediate fertilizer demand, reinforcing the overall softness in Ammonia prices during the quarter.
South America
During Q1 2025, the South American Ammonia market experienced a modest decline in prices, primarily due to a balanced supply-demand environment. The region benefited from a consistent inflow of cargoes from major exporting countries, notably Trinidad and Tobago. Despite facing natural gas constraints, Trinidad and Tobago continued to honor existing export commitments, ensuring uninterrupted shipments to South America. These competitive imports placed downward pressure on domestic Ammonia prices by increasing availability across key consuming regions. On the demand side, market activity remained muted as fertilizer requirements for the current planting cycle were largely met early in the quarter. This resulted in limited spot market activity, with buyers showing little interest in additional purchases. Most stakeholders focused on fulfilling long-term contractual obligations rather than engaging in new transactions. Additionally, favorable weather conditions and efficient distribution helped streamline fertilizer applications, further reducing the urgency for spot procurement. Overall, the quarter reflected a stable yet bearish pricing trend, shaped by sufficient supply and restrained short-term demand dynamics.
Middle East
The Middle Eastern Ammonia market witnessed a bearish price trend throughout Q1 2025, largely influenced by balanced supply-demand fundamentals. Despite fluctuations in natural gas prices—the key feedstock for ammonia production—its impact on market pricing was limited during the quarter. Ammonia supply remained ample, supported by consistently high operating rates across major regional production facilities. Furthermore, a forthcoming wave of shipments directed toward Western markets is expected to exacerbate the oversupply scenario, intensifying downward pressure on prices. On the demand side, the market exhibited restrained activity as producers largely focused on fulfilling existing contractual obligations, with minimal engagement in spot market transactions. This subdued buying interest further weakened the pricing environment, as the lack of robust spot demand offered little support to offset the abundant supply. Overall, the quarter reflected a stable but softening market outlook, shaped by sustained production levels, limited spot trade activity, and a cautious buyer approach, which together contributed to the modest decline in Ammonia prices across the Middle Eastern region.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Ammonia prices experienced a significant surge in 2024, with quarter-end prices at New Orleans port reaching USD 588/MT on a month-on-month basis. This sharp increase was driven by several key factors, most notably the volatility in feedstock Natural Gas prices and a shortage of imported Ammonia in the region. Trinidad & Tobago, a major Ammonia exporter to the U.S., faced gas curtailments and reduced production, leading to a sharp decline in export volumes.
Compounding the supply challenges, severe storms in the southeastern United States disrupted production capabilities, particularly in northern Georgia and the southern Appalachian regions. Additionally, persistent logistical bottlenecks in Canada, exacerbated by an ongoing labor strike, caused significant shipment delays. Labor disputes at critical ports, including the Port of Montreal, further extended delivery times, intensifying the shortage of Ammonia in North America.
On the demand side, periodic restocking activities were observed to fulfill requirements from fertilizer and industrial sectors, sustaining steady consumption despite supply constraints.
Asia- Pacific
Asian Ammonia prices exhibited pronounced volatility throughout the final quarter of 2024. Prices escalated during the initial two months, driven by robust international demand, particularly from India, which placed significant pressure on regional supply levels. In China, logistical challenges such as severe port congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, coupled with heavy rainfall and rising freight costs, further exacerbated the price surge. Supply chain disruptions were intensified by vessel bunching and prolonged waiting times, compounding market tightness. Adverse weather conditions across the southern Asia-Pacific region, including typhoons in China and Japan, led to substantial production disruptions. Excessive rainfall forced several manufacturing facilities to declare force majeure, resulting in reduced production output and a notable Ammonia shortage in the region. Despite these challenges, prices declined toward the end of the quarter due to subdued year-end purchasing activities. India, a key fertilizer consumer, had fulfilled most of its requirements through contractual tenders, leaving minimal spot market demand. This drops in purchasing activity eased price pressures, stabilizing the market.
Europe
European Ammonia prices experienced a significant surge in 2024, with Russia and the Netherlands among the most affected regions. This sharp price increase was driven primarily by the volatility in feedstock Natural Gas prices and a shortage of imported Ammonia within the European market. Trinidad & Tobago, a key Ammonia supplier to Europe, faced gas curtailments and reduced production levels, resulting in a substantial decline in export volumes and heightened supply challenges. Compounding these issues was an operational disruption at Algeria’s Fertial plant, a crucial Ammonia production facility and a key supplier to the Dutch market. This unexpected disruption left a supply gap, pushing traders to the spot market in search of alternative cargoes. The increased reliance on the spot market significantly raised prices across the region. Despite these supply constraints, periodic restocking activities were observed to meet steady demand from fertilizer and industrial sectors. These efforts sustained consumption levels, intensifying pressure on Ammonia prices and amplifying market tightness across Europe.
South America
South American Ammonia prices saw a significant uptick during the final quarter of 2024, with quarter-end prices at São Paulo port reaching USD 536/MT on a month-on-month basis. This surge was driven by a combination of volatile freight charges, reduced availability of imported material, and steady yet moderate demand from downstream markets. Trinidad & Tobago, a major supplier to South America, faced gas curtailments and production reductions, leading to a sharp decline in export volumes and exacerbating supply constraints. Logistical bottlenecks in Canada, aggravated by an ongoing labor strike, further disrupted shipments. Labor disputes at critical ports, including the Port of Montreal, extended delivery times, intensifying Ammonia shortages from North America to South America. On the demand side, the sowing of spring-planted crops began in the primary production region of the South under generally favorable conditions. However, El Niño conditions are expected to result in drier-than-normal weather, prompting farmers to anticipate a reduction in the total sown area, reflecting caution over potential impacts on crop yields.
MEA
The price of Middle Eastern Ammonia exhibited volatility during Q4 2024, with notable price increases observed in the first two months of the quarter. This surge was driven by volatile freight charges, reduced availability of imported material, and steady yet moderate downstream demand. Maintenance activities at Ma’aden, both planned and unplanned, significantly impacted export availability, reducing output by approximately 96,000 tons. This prompted a revision of the company’s 2024 production target to 3.0–3.2 million tons, down from the previous forecast of 3.2–3.4 million tons. This adjustment, reflecting a 6% supply decline, underscored the impact of these disruptions on Ammonia availability across domestic and export markets. Firm demand from key importing markets, particularly India, further supported the need for sustained exports. Major producers in Saudi Arabia, including Sabic Agri-Nutrients and Ma’aden, were projected to load a combined 250,000 tonnes during the quarter’s initial months. However, prices declined towards the quarter's end as subdued year-end purchasing activities eased market pressure. India, having secured most of its fertilizer needs via contractual tenders, contributed to the reduced spot demand, stabilizing prices.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a notable increase in North American Ammonia prices, driven by several key factors. Supply constraints emerged as a result of production cuts at multiple ammonia plants, compounded by adverse weather conditions that disrupted logistics and transportation networks.
In August 2024, a critical shortage became evident in the North American market, primarily due to reduced production rates in Trinidad, a major exporter of Ammonia to the United States. Ongoing natural gas supply issues in Trinidad led to delayed and diminished exports, which further strained Ammonia stocks in the region. As the quarter progressed, the North American fertilizer industry adopted a cautious stance due to persistent adverse weather, including hurricanes and thunderstorms. Although Hurricane Francine impacted southern Louisiana, market reports suggest that most of the state’s fertilizer sector managed to endure the storm’s effects without significant disruption. Nevertheless, the industry remained on alert as another tropical storm was anticipated, raising concerns about further disruptions.
By the end of the quarter, the price of Anhydrous Ammonia stood at USD 490/MT CFR Tampa in the USA, underscoring the consistent upward trajectory in pricing throughout the period.
Asia
The Asian Ammonia market exhibited a mixed trend during the third quarter of 2024. Prices declined during the first two months of the quarter, with China being the most significantly affected. Persistent port congestion within the region led to inventory buildups, as vessels faced extended waiting times—up to four days at Shanghai, two days at Qingdao, and three days at Port Klang. This ship bunching, a lingering effect of earlier port disruptions, has severely impacted the supply chain, contributing to the accumulation of ammonia stocks. Combined with subdued demand due to the end of planting season activities, these factors drove prices down. However, in the final month of the quarter, prices surged due to adverse weather conditions that disrupted logistics and transportation networks. Typhoon Yagi, the strongest storm to hit Asia in 2024, struck China’s Hainan province, bringing torrential rains and winds of up to 234 km per hour. The typhoon caused widespread damage, resulting in extensive power outages and significant disruptions to daily life. These conditions further strained transportation infrastructure and power supplies, exacerbating production challenges for key industrial sectors, including Ammonia manufacturing. Additionally, preparations for winter planting began to pick up, boosting demand. By the end of the quarter, the price of Aqueous Ammonia FOB Qingdao in China rose to USD 415/MT, reflecting a renewed upward trend in the market.
Europe
During Q3, the European Ammonia market experienced a significant surge, particularly in Russia, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. This increase in prices was mainly attributed to a shortage of raw materials in the European market. The shortage stemmed from Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, where the critical Sudzha gas transit station is located. Disruption at this key transit point created a ripple effect, impacting European gas supplies and further intensifying the regional shortage of Natural Gas. The severe scarcity of this essential raw material directly affected Ammonia production, resulting in reduced output levels and contributing to the rise in Ammonia prices. Demand for Ammonia remained moderate, driven by domestic requirements and orders from European importers. However, this demand was largely concentrated among smaller buyers within the region, reflecting a cautious market outlook. Additionally, the market faced further challenges due to fluctuating weather conditions, which impacted demand from the major downstream fertilizer sector. These unpredictable weather patterns made it difficult for farmers to forecast their fertilizer needs, creating a more volatile demand environment. By the end of the quarter, the price of Ammonia FOB Novorossiysk (Russia) was recorded at USD 495 per metric ton.
South America
In Q3 2024, the South American Ammonia market experienced a marked uptrend, with Brazil showing the most pronounced fluctuations. Several factors have contributed to this price increase, including supply constraints resulting from production issues in major exporting regions. Decreased exports, logistical challenges, and global trade uncertainties have collectively tightened the supply chain, pushing prices higher. Additionally, domestic demand remained subdued due to weather-related uncertainties, leading to cautious purchasing behavior among farmers. This has further widened the supply-demand gap, intensifying the upward pressure on prices. In Brazil, the price increase was particularly significant, showing a 4% rise compared to the previous quarter and a 21% difference when comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, indicating a rapid price escalation within a short timeframe. By the end of the quarter, the price of Anhydrous Ammonia CFR Sao Paulo reached USD 470/MT, highlighting the overall upward trend and positive sentiment in the regional pricing environment.
Middle East
In Q3 2024, the Ammonia market in the MEA region saw a notable uptrend in prices, influenced by several key factors. The absence of major exporters from the global market reshaped demand dynamics, particularly affecting Saudi Arabia. Increased international interest and consistent demand ahead of the planting season helped to support higher prices. Supply constraints also emerged due to production challenges at Ma’aden, one of the country’s key ammonia-producing facilities, leading to shortages that further elevated prices. Additionally, rising production costs, driven by higher feedstock prices and escalating freight charges, contributed to the overall price surge. Saudi Arabia experienced the most significant price fluctuations, recording a 23% increase compared to the previous quarter. Although prices were down by 11% compared to the same quarter last year, there was a 6% rise from the first to the second half of the quarter, highlighting a sharp incline. The quarter concluded with the price for Anhydrous Ammonia Spot Ex Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia reaching USD 380/MT, indicating a positive pricing environment amid the ongoing market dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American ammonia market experienced a marked decline in prices, driven by several significant factors. The subdued demand from key downstream fertilizer markets played a central role, as climate-related challenges and extreme weather conditions disrupted normal planting activities. The lack of international inquiries, particularly from major importers, further exacerbated the situation. Although the price of natural gas, a critical feedstock for ammonia, kept fluctuating during this period, its impact on ammonia prices was limited due to the prevailing oversupply in the market.
Geomagnetic storms and weather anomalies led to planting suspensions, which, combined with ample supply and cautious purchasing behaviour, narrowed the demand-supply gap, reinforcing downward pressure on prices. As the quarter approached the end, he Drought Monitor released on June 20th, no areas of drought were reported in southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Despite this, farmers in the country have surprisingly adopted a wait-and-see approach to securing fertilizers, including Ammonia, as they anticipate further price decline.
The quarter concluded with an anhydrous ammonia price of USD 400/MT. CFR Tampa, underscoring the negative pricing environment. This consistent downward trajectory throughout Q2 2024 highlights the intricate balance between supply chain constraints and reduced market activity, resulting in a persistently negative pricing environment.
APAC
The ammonia market in the Asian region showed mixed sentiments throughout Q2 2024, particularly in China. Prices dipped during the first and third months but increased in the second month. The declines were driven by a surplus of ammonia in the Chinese market due to resumed operations at major plants and reduced demand for derivatives like acrylonitrile and amino acids. Anhui Haoyuan and Fujian Wanhua, two significant production facilities, began operations early in Q2, further boosting supply. Conversely, ammonia prices surged by 3.2% in May 2024 due to a resurgence in demand from both international and domestic markets and a noticeable shortage of ammonia. Heightened freight charges and delayed shipments due to port congestions also contributed. Average container prices surged by 26% from October 2023 to May 2024, and container leasing rates on key routes, such as China to the US, doubled since November, exacerbating shipping challenges. As a result, traders increased prices of various commodities, including ammonia, to maintain profit margins.
Europe
During Q2 2024, the European Ammonia market experienced a marked downturn in prices, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing valuations across the region. Unfavourable weather conditions, including harsh windstorms and floods, significantly dampened agricultural demand, particularly in the fertilizer sector. This decline in demand was compounded by an oversupply of ammonia, driven by ample inventories and smooth cargo inflows despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants reported a notable decline in fertilizer sales across Europe, a major factor driving this stagnancy. The adverse weather conditions disrupted agricultural activities, further reducing the need for fertilizers. Consequently, the ammonia market faced substantial challenges, resulting in decreased prices and an overall bearish market sentiment throughout the quarter. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties contributed to market instability, as concerns about supply chain disruptions and potential trade barriers remained prevalent. Despite these uncertainties, cargo inflows remained smooth, exacerbating the oversupply situation. The industrial sector, which is a significant consumer of ammonia for various applications, also showed reduced activity. This reduction in industrial demand, along with the subdued agricultural sector, led to a decreased overall uptake from downstream sectors.
MEA
The Middle Eastern Ammonia market experienced divergent trend during Q2. The prices declined during the first month of the quarter and increased during another two months. The prices declined by 7.7% in April 2024 from the previous month owing lower netbacks on contractual shipments to North African and Asian markets over the past few weeks. This decrease in netbacks has further contributed to the downward pressure Ammonia prices in the region. As the quarter progressed Ammonia. has witnessed a significant surge in ammonia prices across the Middle Eastern and African (MEA) region, driven by a confluence of factors that have reshaped market dynamics. Key among these influences is the notable increase in production costs, primarily due to the rising price of essential feedstock natural gas Geopolitical shifts, particularly China's strategic decision to halt fertilizer exports to India, have intensified demand pressures as Indian buyers seek alternative sources within the MEA region. Additionally, limited spot availability and constrained supply chains have compounded the upward price trajectory. These elements collectively underscore an environment of heightened market volatility and reduced supply elasticity, contributing to the pronounced price escalation observed this quarter.
South America
The South American ammonia market experienced growth during the first two months of Q2 but declined in the last month. The initial price surge was driven by increased demand from fertilizer markets, stimulated by favorable weather conditions. Following a year of record-setting global temperatures, we are nearing the end of a robust El Niño phase and transitioning to a La Niña phase, with persistently high temperatures. These climatic changes have spurred consumer enthusiasm to procure fertilizers for the upcoming planting season. The anticipation of a strong planting season, along with the crucial role of nitrogen-based fertilizers in enhancing crop yields, has driven market demand. Farmers and agricultural stakeholders are keenly aware of optimizing soil fertility to maximize productivity amid anticipated weather fluctuations. Consequently, the demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, such as ammonia, remains robust as preparations for the planting season continue. However, ammonia prices dipped by 11.5% in June on a month-on-month basis due to the conclusion of harvesting activities in southern Brazil. Despite average yields amidst inconsistent rainfall and flood-related damages in May, there was sufficient availability of imported anhydrous ammonia cargoes. Increased water levels in the Panama Canal facilitated easier transit of vessels from the USA, a major exporter. Additionally, Petrobras, with a capacity of 475,000 tons per year, is operating effectively, ensuring a sufficient domestic supply of ammonia. These factors collectively contributed to the declining price of ammonia in Brazil.
