For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Ammonia prices experienced a significant surge in 2024, with quarter-end prices at New Orleans port reaching USD 588/MT on a month-on-month basis. This sharp increase was driven by several key factors, most notably the volatility in feedstock Natural Gas prices and a shortage of imported Ammonia in the region. Trinidad & Tobago, a major Ammonia exporter to the U.S., faced gas curtailments and reduced production, leading to a sharp decline in export volumes.
Compounding the supply challenges, severe storms in the southeastern United States disrupted production capabilities, particularly in northern Georgia and the southern Appalachian regions. Additionally, persistent logistical bottlenecks in Canada, exacerbated by an ongoing labor strike, caused significant shipment delays. Labor disputes at critical ports, including the Port of Montreal, further extended delivery times, intensifying the shortage of Ammonia in North America.
On the demand side, periodic restocking activities were observed to fulfill requirements from fertilizer and industrial sectors, sustaining steady consumption despite supply constraints.
Asia- Pacific
Asian Ammonia prices exhibited pronounced volatility throughout the final quarter of 2024. Prices escalated during the initial two months, driven by robust international demand, particularly from India, which placed significant pressure on regional supply levels. In China, logistical challenges such as severe port congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, coupled with heavy rainfall and rising freight costs, further exacerbated the price surge. Supply chain disruptions were intensified by vessel bunching and prolonged waiting times, compounding market tightness. Adverse weather conditions across the southern Asia-Pacific region, including typhoons in China and Japan, led to substantial production disruptions. Excessive rainfall forced several manufacturing facilities to declare force majeure, resulting in reduced production output and a notable Ammonia shortage in the region. Despite these challenges, prices declined toward the end of the quarter due to subdued year-end purchasing activities. India, a key fertilizer consumer, had fulfilled most of its requirements through contractual tenders, leaving minimal spot market demand. This drops in purchasing activity eased price pressures, stabilizing the market.
Europe
European Ammonia prices experienced a significant surge in 2024, with Russia and the Netherlands among the most affected regions. This sharp price increase was driven primarily by the volatility in feedstock Natural Gas prices and a shortage of imported Ammonia within the European market. Trinidad & Tobago, a key Ammonia supplier to Europe, faced gas curtailments and reduced production levels, resulting in a substantial decline in export volumes and heightened supply challenges. Compounding these issues was an operational disruption at Algeria’s Fertial plant, a crucial Ammonia production facility and a key supplier to the Dutch market. This unexpected disruption left a supply gap, pushing traders to the spot market in search of alternative cargoes. The increased reliance on the spot market significantly raised prices across the region. Despite these supply constraints, periodic restocking activities were observed to meet steady demand from fertilizer and industrial sectors. These efforts sustained consumption levels, intensifying pressure on Ammonia prices and amplifying market tightness across Europe.
South America
South American Ammonia prices saw a significant uptick during the final quarter of 2024, with quarter-end prices at São Paulo port reaching USD 536/MT on a month-on-month basis. This surge was driven by a combination of volatile freight charges, reduced availability of imported material, and steady yet moderate demand from downstream markets. Trinidad & Tobago, a major supplier to South America, faced gas curtailments and production reductions, leading to a sharp decline in export volumes and exacerbating supply constraints. Logistical bottlenecks in Canada, aggravated by an ongoing labor strike, further disrupted shipments. Labor disputes at critical ports, including the Port of Montreal, extended delivery times, intensifying Ammonia shortages from North America to South America. On the demand side, the sowing of spring-planted crops began in the primary production region of the South under generally favorable conditions. However, El Niño conditions are expected to result in drier-than-normal weather, prompting farmers to anticipate a reduction in the total sown area, reflecting caution over potential impacts on crop yields.
MEA
The price of Middle Eastern Ammonia exhibited volatility during Q4 2024, with notable price increases observed in the first two months of the quarter. This surge was driven by volatile freight charges, reduced availability of imported material, and steady yet moderate downstream demand. Maintenance activities at Ma’aden, both planned and unplanned, significantly impacted export availability, reducing output by approximately 96,000 tons. This prompted a revision of the company’s 2024 production target to 3.0–3.2 million tons, down from the previous forecast of 3.2–3.4 million tons. This adjustment, reflecting a 6% supply decline, underscored the impact of these disruptions on Ammonia availability across domestic and export markets. Firm demand from key importing markets, particularly India, further supported the need for sustained exports. Major producers in Saudi Arabia, including Sabic Agri-Nutrients and Ma’aden, were projected to load a combined 250,000 tonnes during the quarter’s initial months. However, prices declined towards the quarter's end as subdued year-end purchasing activities eased market pressure. India, having secured most of its fertilizer needs via contractual tenders, contributed to the reduced spot demand, stabilizing prices.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a notable increase in North American Ammonia prices, driven by several key factors. Supply constraints emerged as a result of production cuts at multiple ammonia plants, compounded by adverse weather conditions that disrupted logistics and transportation networks.
In August 2024, a critical shortage became evident in the North American market, primarily due to reduced production rates in Trinidad, a major exporter of Ammonia to the United States. Ongoing natural gas supply issues in Trinidad led to delayed and diminished exports, which further strained Ammonia stocks in the region. As the quarter progressed, the North American fertilizer industry adopted a cautious stance due to persistent adverse weather, including hurricanes and thunderstorms. Although Hurricane Francine impacted southern Louisiana, market reports suggest that most of the state’s fertilizer sector managed to endure the storm’s effects without significant disruption. Nevertheless, the industry remained on alert as another tropical storm was anticipated, raising concerns about further disruptions.
By the end of the quarter, the price of Anhydrous Ammonia stood at USD 490/MT CFR Tampa in the USA, underscoring the consistent upward trajectory in pricing throughout the period.
Asia
The Asian Ammonia market exhibited a mixed trend during the third quarter of 2024. Prices declined during the first two months of the quarter, with China being the most significantly affected. Persistent port congestion within the region led to inventory buildups, as vessels faced extended waiting times—up to four days at Shanghai, two days at Qingdao, and three days at Port Klang. This ship bunching, a lingering effect of earlier port disruptions, has severely impacted the supply chain, contributing to the accumulation of ammonia stocks. Combined with subdued demand due to the end of planting season activities, these factors drove prices down. However, in the final month of the quarter, prices surged due to adverse weather conditions that disrupted logistics and transportation networks. Typhoon Yagi, the strongest storm to hit Asia in 2024, struck China’s Hainan province, bringing torrential rains and winds of up to 234 km per hour. The typhoon caused widespread damage, resulting in extensive power outages and significant disruptions to daily life. These conditions further strained transportation infrastructure and power supplies, exacerbating production challenges for key industrial sectors, including Ammonia manufacturing. Additionally, preparations for winter planting began to pick up, boosting demand. By the end of the quarter, the price of Aqueous Ammonia FOB Qingdao in China rose to USD 415/MT, reflecting a renewed upward trend in the market.
Europe
During Q3, the European Ammonia market experienced a significant surge, particularly in Russia, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. This increase in prices was mainly attributed to a shortage of raw materials in the European market. The shortage stemmed from Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, where the critical Sudzha gas transit station is located. Disruption at this key transit point created a ripple effect, impacting European gas supplies and further intensifying the regional shortage of Natural Gas. The severe scarcity of this essential raw material directly affected Ammonia production, resulting in reduced output levels and contributing to the rise in Ammonia prices. Demand for Ammonia remained moderate, driven by domestic requirements and orders from European importers. However, this demand was largely concentrated among smaller buyers within the region, reflecting a cautious market outlook. Additionally, the market faced further challenges due to fluctuating weather conditions, which impacted demand from the major downstream fertilizer sector. These unpredictable weather patterns made it difficult for farmers to forecast their fertilizer needs, creating a more volatile demand environment. By the end of the quarter, the price of Ammonia FOB Novorossiysk (Russia) was recorded at USD 495 per metric ton.
South America
In Q3 2024, the South American Ammonia market experienced a marked uptrend, with Brazil showing the most pronounced fluctuations. Several factors have contributed to this price increase, including supply constraints resulting from production issues in major exporting regions. Decreased exports, logistical challenges, and global trade uncertainties have collectively tightened the supply chain, pushing prices higher. Additionally, domestic demand remained subdued due to weather-related uncertainties, leading to cautious purchasing behavior among farmers. This has further widened the supply-demand gap, intensifying the upward pressure on prices. In Brazil, the price increase was particularly significant, showing a 4% rise compared to the previous quarter and a 21% difference when comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, indicating a rapid price escalation within a short timeframe. By the end of the quarter, the price of Anhydrous Ammonia CFR Sao Paulo reached USD 470/MT, highlighting the overall upward trend and positive sentiment in the regional pricing environment.
Middle East
In Q3 2024, the Ammonia market in the MEA region saw a notable uptrend in prices, influenced by several key factors. The absence of major exporters from the global market reshaped demand dynamics, particularly affecting Saudi Arabia. Increased international interest and consistent demand ahead of the planting season helped to support higher prices. Supply constraints also emerged due to production challenges at Ma’aden, one of the country’s key ammonia-producing facilities, leading to shortages that further elevated prices. Additionally, rising production costs, driven by higher feedstock prices and escalating freight charges, contributed to the overall price surge. Saudi Arabia experienced the most significant price fluctuations, recording a 23% increase compared to the previous quarter. Although prices were down by 11% compared to the same quarter last year, there was a 6% rise from the first to the second half of the quarter, highlighting a sharp incline. The quarter concluded with the price for Anhydrous Ammonia Spot Ex Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia reaching USD 380/MT, indicating a positive pricing environment amid the ongoing market dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American ammonia market experienced a marked decline in prices, driven by several significant factors. The subdued demand from key downstream fertilizer markets played a central role, as climate-related challenges and extreme weather conditions disrupted normal planting activities. The lack of international inquiries, particularly from major importers, further exacerbated the situation. Although the price of natural gas, a critical feedstock for ammonia, kept fluctuating during this period, its impact on ammonia prices was limited due to the prevailing oversupply in the market.
Geomagnetic storms and weather anomalies led to planting suspensions, which, combined with ample supply and cautious purchasing behaviour, narrowed the demand-supply gap, reinforcing downward pressure on prices. As the quarter approached the end, he Drought Monitor released on June 20th, no areas of drought were reported in southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Despite this, farmers in the country have surprisingly adopted a wait-and-see approach to securing fertilizers, including Ammonia, as they anticipate further price decline.
The quarter concluded with an anhydrous ammonia price of USD 400/MT. CFR Tampa, underscoring the negative pricing environment. This consistent downward trajectory throughout Q2 2024 highlights the intricate balance between supply chain constraints and reduced market activity, resulting in a persistently negative pricing environment.
APAC
The ammonia market in the Asian region showed mixed sentiments throughout Q2 2024, particularly in China. Prices dipped during the first and third months but increased in the second month. The declines were driven by a surplus of ammonia in the Chinese market due to resumed operations at major plants and reduced demand for derivatives like acrylonitrile and amino acids. Anhui Haoyuan and Fujian Wanhua, two significant production facilities, began operations early in Q2, further boosting supply. Conversely, ammonia prices surged by 3.2% in May 2024 due to a resurgence in demand from both international and domestic markets and a noticeable shortage of ammonia. Heightened freight charges and delayed shipments due to port congestions also contributed. Average container prices surged by 26% from October 2023 to May 2024, and container leasing rates on key routes, such as China to the US, doubled since November, exacerbating shipping challenges. As a result, traders increased prices of various commodities, including ammonia, to maintain profit margins.
Europe
During Q2 2024, the European Ammonia market experienced a marked downturn in prices, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing valuations across the region. Unfavourable weather conditions, including harsh windstorms and floods, significantly dampened agricultural demand, particularly in the fertilizer sector. This decline in demand was compounded by an oversupply of ammonia, driven by ample inventories and smooth cargo inflows despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants reported a notable decline in fertilizer sales across Europe, a major factor driving this stagnancy. The adverse weather conditions disrupted agricultural activities, further reducing the need for fertilizers. Consequently, the ammonia market faced substantial challenges, resulting in decreased prices and an overall bearish market sentiment throughout the quarter. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties contributed to market instability, as concerns about supply chain disruptions and potential trade barriers remained prevalent. Despite these uncertainties, cargo inflows remained smooth, exacerbating the oversupply situation. The industrial sector, which is a significant consumer of ammonia for various applications, also showed reduced activity. This reduction in industrial demand, along with the subdued agricultural sector, led to a decreased overall uptake from downstream sectors.
MEA
The Middle Eastern Ammonia market experienced divergent trend during Q2. The prices declined during the first month of the quarter and increased during another two months. The prices declined by 7.7% in April 2024 from the previous month owing lower netbacks on contractual shipments to North African and Asian markets over the past few weeks. This decrease in netbacks has further contributed to the downward pressure Ammonia prices in the region. As the quarter progressed Ammonia. has witnessed a significant surge in ammonia prices across the Middle Eastern and African (MEA) region, driven by a confluence of factors that have reshaped market dynamics. Key among these influences is the notable increase in production costs, primarily due to the rising price of essential feedstock natural gas Geopolitical shifts, particularly China's strategic decision to halt fertilizer exports to India, have intensified demand pressures as Indian buyers seek alternative sources within the MEA region. Additionally, limited spot availability and constrained supply chains have compounded the upward price trajectory. These elements collectively underscore an environment of heightened market volatility and reduced supply elasticity, contributing to the pronounced price escalation observed this quarter.
South America
The South American ammonia market experienced growth during the first two months of Q2 but declined in the last month. The initial price surge was driven by increased demand from fertilizer markets, stimulated by favorable weather conditions. Following a year of record-setting global temperatures, we are nearing the end of a robust El Niño phase and transitioning to a La Niña phase, with persistently high temperatures. These climatic changes have spurred consumer enthusiasm to procure fertilizers for the upcoming planting season. The anticipation of a strong planting season, along with the crucial role of nitrogen-based fertilizers in enhancing crop yields, has driven market demand. Farmers and agricultural stakeholders are keenly aware of optimizing soil fertility to maximize productivity amid anticipated weather fluctuations. Consequently, the demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, such as ammonia, remains robust as preparations for the planting season continue. However, ammonia prices dipped by 11.5% in June on a month-on-month basis due to the conclusion of harvesting activities in southern Brazil. Despite average yields amidst inconsistent rainfall and flood-related damages in May, there was sufficient availability of imported anhydrous ammonia cargoes. Increased water levels in the Panama Canal facilitated easier transit of vessels from the USA, a major exporter. Additionally, Petrobras, with a capacity of 475,000 tons per year, is operating effectively, ensuring a sufficient domestic supply of ammonia. These factors collectively contributed to the declining price of ammonia in Brazil.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American Ammonia market faced a negative sentiments during first quarter in 2024, marked by subdued prices. The prices plunged by a significant margin of 20.6% throughout the quarter.
Fluctuating Natural Gas prices and declining demand contributed to this trend. Despite consistent demand from international markets, domestic demand remained weak due to unfavourable weather conditions, particularly impacting crop planting. Several major producers, including the Yara/BASF JV plant in Texas and U.S. Nitrogen LLC in Tennessee, experienced shutdowns caused by freezing weather, albeit without significant price effects. Additional shutdowns occurred at OCI Beaumont LLC in Texas and LSB Industries Inc in Cherokee, Alabama. The market experienced further challenges due to logistical disruptions on the Mississippi River, hindering barge resupply until mid-March. This bottleneck led to delayed shipments and increased port inventories.
Prolonged adverse weather conditions across the country dampened producer enthusiasm, as concerns about crop threats persisted. Fluctuating demand from major importing countries like Brazil, influenced by the approaching planting season and exacerbated by El-Nino-induced weather conditions, added to the market's volatility. Overall, these factors contributed to the subdued performance and pricing dynamics witnessed in the North American Ammonia market throughout Q1 2024.
APAC
The pricing of Ammonia in the APAC region during Q1 2024 saw significant volatility, influenced by various market dynamics. Prices declined in the initial two months due to ample material availability and subdued seasonal demand. Favourable weather conditions and increased domestic production contributed to enhanced supplies, while sluggish demand from the fertilizer industry post-peak planting season further impacted prices. Moreover, international demand, especially from Asia, was constrained by Chinese government restrictions on fertilizer exports until 2024. By late February 2024, shortages of Ammonia emerged in the Chinese market, driven by equipment malfunctions and sales stoppages at production facilities, particularly in northern China. Operational challenges disrupted manufacturing processes and delayed ammonia delivery, exacerbating supply shortages. Additionally, environmental regulations in Shandong province imposed further constraints on production, reducing ammonia output. Despite supply challenges, domestic demand experienced a modest uptick as preparations for the upcoming wheat and barley planting season commenced. Henceforth a potential price surge, resulting in a marginal 0.8% increase in prices in March 2024.
Europe
The European Ammonia market faced a challenging first quarter in 2024, characterized by a substantial 17.3% decline in prices in Russia. This decline was primarily attributed to reduced demand from the downstream fertilizer sector, compounded by an oversupply of ammonia and muted overall demand. Additionally, market sentiments were dampened by trade uncertainties and unfavourable weather conditions, particularly in Russia. The weather across Europe varied significantly during the quarter, with cold spells in the northern regions, excessive rainfall in central areas, and dryness in the Mediterranean. These weather patterns influenced agricultural activities and fertilizer demand, further contributing to the subdued market conditions. Despite these challenges, the temporary maintenance shutdown of the Novomoskovskiy Azot (Eurochem Group) plant had minimal impact on prices. However, ongoing farmers' protests, fuelled by rising energy prices, played a significant role in reducing farmers' buying enthusiasm. These protests added further pressure on the already subdued demand in the fertilizer sector. In response to the inventory pressures faced by traders, various strategies were employed, including adjustments to fertilizer prices, including ammonia. These efforts aimed to alleviate the impact of declining demand and lower production rates on market dynamics. However, despite these measures, prices continued to decline throughout the quarter.
South America
The South American Ammonia market faced a substantial 16.8% price decline in Q1 2024. Initially, January witnessed subdued demand due to seasonal factors and Carnival festivities, which temporarily slowed agricultural activities. Despite some consumers stocking up for the upcoming planting season, the overall market was affected. As the quarter progressed, domestic interest in Ammonia rose, but persistent drought conditions dampened enthusiasm among buyers. However, Brazil began receiving cheaper Ammonia cargoes from importing countries since mid-February, taking advantage of eased freight charges. This influx of affordable imports partially offset the domestic supply-demand dynamics. Despite trade uncertainties and droughts affecting the Panama Canal, traders exhibited resilience by adapting to alternative transportation routes, predominantly utilizing roads and air channels. This adaptability ensured a consistent supply of Ammonia to the Brazilian market, maintaining supply chain continuity. The increased activity in March, highlighted by exports ranging between 130,000 to 170,000 tons via road, demonstrated traders' agility in responding to evolving market conditions. Leveraging road transport allowed for swift navigation of geopolitical challenges and ensured prompt Ammonia delivery to customers, contributing to supply chain efficiency. These actions collectively narrowed the disparity between demand and supply, supporting the observed price decline in the South American Ammonia market.
Middle East
Throughout Q1 of 2024, the Middle Eastern ammonia market witnessed a notable bearish trend, characterized by declining prices predominantly attributed to a decrease in natural gas prices, a pivotal raw material in ammonia production processes. This market sentiment persisted as supply surpassed demand, resulting in an excess of ammonia supply within the region. Further exacerbating the market conditions were ongoing rebel attacks in the Red Sea, which disrupted the exporting process, causing delays and leading to an accumulation of ammonia inventories at ports. Despite weak international demand, a notable development emerged with China expressing demand following an agreement for a cargo from Indonesia. Saudi Arabia, a key player in the Middle Eastern ammonia market, experienced a significant price decline. This decline was attributed to the country providing cheaper exports to the Indian market, consequently increasing ammonia supply and resulting in higher inventory levels. Noteworthy during this period was the resumption of production at one of Saudi Arabia's major ammonia-producing plants, Ma’aden, which operated efficiently, further narrowing the disparity between demand and supply. In Q1 of 2024, the latest recorded price for Ammonia Spot Ex Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 290/MT, reflecting the prevailing market dynamics and indicating the impact of various factors influencing ammonia prices within the Middle Eastern region.
