Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices in Germany jumped another 1% in the second week of March 2025, continuing the upward trend we've seen since the month began. This latest price hike comes as the European Commission tweaked trade protection rules, shaking things up across European steel markets.

Key Takeaways:

• German HRC prices climbed 1% last week, building on early March gains
• EU's trade protection adjustments are propping up local prices
• German mills are happy with the trade measures, while traders are grumbling
• Import options are drying up, especially with Russian material off the table
• The new German government's spending plans might give steel a boost soon
• Green steel remains mostly a project-specific purchase, not something for everyday stock

German HRC has shown surprising strength despite customers not exactly lining up at the door. Those EU trade measures making it harder for cheaper imports to flood in. A local distributor called the Commission's recent changes a "balanced plan" - not dramatic, but enough to keep foreign steel at bay without slapping on huge tariffs. This setup has been a gift to German HRC producers, helping them hold firm on pricing even with demand being soft.

Prices for HRC in Northwest Europe have settled into a predictable range, with German prices running a bit higher than neighbouring markets. Import quotas are particularly tight now, which matters a lot in Germany where buyers typically mix local and imported HRC in their purchasing. With Russian material effectively blocked, German distributors are increasingly stuck buying from local mills.

This shift in buying patterns has given German HRC prices a nice little boost. Sure, there are some tempting low-price offers from Asia floating around, but good luck getting that material in with the quota restrictions and looming anti-dumping measures. The import barriers have handed German producers some unexpected pricing power in what's otherwise a tough market.

The green steel segment shows some promise in Germany, with the eco-conscious Nordics driving most demand, though Spain is starting to show more interest lately. German suppliers charge extra for this lower-carbon HRC, with premiums varying based on how clean the production process is. But these premium products remain mostly one-off project buys rather than regular inventory items.

Trade tensions with the U.S. are adding another wrinkle to the German HRC outlook. While not directly hitting prices yet, it's making everyone a bit more nervous about what's coming next.

As per ChemAnalyst, German HRC prices is likely to be in higher side in March. This price trend will be supported by import restrictions and potential government stimulus measures. Looking beyond spring, everything hinges on whether those government infrastructure projects actually materialize.