In late March 2025, the markets for Hot Rolled Coils (HRC) displayed opposing patterns, with China seeing a 1.0% drop in price and Germany and the US maintaining price stability. These regional variations demonstrate how the global steel landscape is becoming fragmented due to local economic conditions, trade policies, and demand patterns.

Key Takeaways:

• Germany: HRC prices held steady despite limited supply availability
• USA: Price increases slowed after weeks of upward momentum
• China: HRC prices fell 1.0% amid cautious buying and export restrictions
• Trade Tensions: Anti-dumping investigations impacted Chinese HRC exports

Despite limited availability, the German HRC market held steady in terms of price in late March. Major producers reported limited coil capacity for Q2, causing suppliers to attempt to quote higher prices for June delivery. Due to weak underlying demand, buyers were cautious about further increases, despite the Northern European index showing slight weekly gains. Concerns about the automotive industry were significant, as new import taxes might reduce future HRC consumption. When urgent HRC supplies were required, buyers had few options due to force majeure conditions, which further complicated the procurement process.

The US HRC market showed signs of moderation as Nucor implemented only a modest price increase after several weeks of substantial hikes. Lead times remained at three to five weeks across Nucor mills, with similar pricing approaches at its California Steel Industries subsidiary. Market assessments indicated HRC prices stayed within expected ranges, with average lead times holding at approximately six weeks. Industry reactions to Trump's tariff policies remained divided – some buyers cited harmful cost increases while others noted beneficial market stability. Although inventory movement was slower than last year, demand has begun to recover gradually.

Chinese HRC prices decreased by 1.0% as cautious purchasing strategies dominated the market. Despite reduced supply and minor demand improvements, transaction volumes declined as end-users limited purchases to essential needs. New export tax rules aimed at simplifying processes raised concerns about potential volume reductions due to unfair trade practice penalties. Major Asian importers including Indonesia, India, Thailand, and Vietnam implemented anti-dumping investigations against Chinese HRC products, contributing to a 27.79% month-over-month export decline by March.

Growing protectionist policies are continuing to disrupt global HRC trade. Expecting the results of anti-dumping investigations and steel safeguards reviews, European buyers are delaying significant purchases. Market-wide import competition is still strong, despite transaction volumes being restricted by regulatory uncertainty.

According to ChemAnalyst, prices in Germany may show resilience in the coming week depending on market recovery, which is dependent on macroeconomic stabilization, trade dispute resolution, and increased end-user demand, particularly from the automotive and construction sectors. Export volumes may decline because of anti-dumping measures, putting pressure on the Chinese market and possibly opening doors for other suppliers. Although there are still risks from possible declines in demand and ongoing global trade tensions that could change regional steel landscapes, American HRC markets should remain comparatively stable through Q2 2025.