The prices of Biodiesel remained unchanged in the third week of February 2025 while the market was hinting to a bullish situation. The stability in the prices was attributed to balanced supply and demand from the major downstream sectors. Biodiesel prices in Europe remained stable, influenced by regulatory developments and market corrections addressing biofuel fraud. The European Biodiesel Board (EBB) has proposed stricter verification rules under the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) to ensure compliance and sustainability. This follows concerns over fraudulent imports from Southeast Asia, which had previously disrupted the market. Regulatory pressure has tightened supply chains, controlling the flow of verified biodiesel. Additionally, Indonesia and Malaysia’s actions to curb tax fraud on palm oil waste feedstocks have impacted availability. These measures have stabilized prices while supporting a gradual transition to a more transparent and regulated biodiesel market.

Moving forward, Biodiesel prices in Germany are expected to remain relatively firm in the coming months, influenced by multiple domestic and global market factors. The recent imposition of anti-dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel imports by the EU Commission is likely to limit supply inflows from low-cost producers, providing price support for locally produced biodiesel. Additionally, stricter certification requirements and registration mandates for biofuel producers will enhance market transparency, ensuring that only compliant biofuels enter the EU market.

In the current market situation, the stability of biodiesel prices in Europe has been reinforced following the EU Commission's decision to impose definitive anti-dumping duties on imports from China. These duties, ranging between 10% and 35.6% of the CIF price, aim to counteract the price pressure exerted by low-cost Chinese biodiesel, which had been flooding the EU market and undermining local producers. By curbing unfair competition, the European biodiesel industry is expected to experience improved market equilibrium, with reduced volatility and firmer pricing.

Furthermore, stricter certification requirements and the mandatory registration of biofuel producers will enhance market transparency, ensuring that only legitimate imports enter the EU. The rejection of China’s request to exclude hydrogenated vegetable oil (HVO) from these duties further strengthens market stability, preventing potential loopholes that could disrupt pricing structures. However, concerns persist over the exemption of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) from these regulations, as they are produced using similar processes as HVO and could serve as an alternative entry point for Chinese biofuels. Industry stakeholders have urged stricter compliance measures to prevent market distortions. Despite these concerns, the overall effect of the anti-dumping duties is expected to stabilize the prices in Europe by supporting fair competition, safeguarding local producers, and mitigating supply-side disruptions.