The European PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) prices are likely to increase during August 2024 amid reduced production rates despite no improvement in the demand from the packaging and construction sector. In July, the European PVC market saw stability to modest increases following two months of declines. A combination of changing demand patterns, potential supply constraints, and elevated feedstock costs due to regional production issues has influenced the outlook for the coming months. Market participants anticipate that larger price hikes may be more feasible in September 2024 as the market progresses through the summer.

The PVC prices in the German market remained on a consistent surge at the termination of July 2024, due to moderate demand in the downstream construction sector and low inventories. The supply contraction benefits the manufacturers and sellers to maintain increased prices for the short term. The production reductions and an elevation in the upstream Ethylene costs in the PVC market amid port strikes led to constrained supplies. The downstream construction demand was stable and manufacturers have warned that flooding at a supplier is causing production delays and will drag the German players' profit margins further impacting the PVC prices.

From the supply chain perspective, storms and oil market Turmoil led to a perfect storm for rising PVC prices. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, lightning, and potential hail are expected to hit, bringing risks of flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes. Strong winds may cause property damage and power outages, adding to the region's challenges.

In the oil market, crude prices surged following the assassination of Hamas's political leader by Israel on Iranian soil, which has sparked threats of retaliation from Tehran. This development has intensified the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, further straining the global oil supply chain and impacting production costs in the PVC market. Compounding these geopolitical tensions is the high costs for oil in the United States, creating a bullish environment for PVC prices. Early on Thursday morning, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading around USD 78.50, while Brent crude had risen above USD 81. As the Middle East conflict continues and adverse weather conditions threaten local stability, the market is bracing for potential further disruptions and PVC price hikes.

As per ChemAnalyst, the PVC prices are expected to increase in the European market due to the anticipated surge in the upstream crude oil prices and elevating Ethylene costs. Moreover, geopolitical tension may also result in the reduction of the production rates during the coming weeks. A combination of shifting demand patterns, potential supply constraints, and rising feedstock costs resulting from regional production issues has influenced the outlook for the coming months. Market participants expect that larger price hikes may be more feasible in September 2024 as the market advances through the summer.