For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market witnessed a notable decline in prices, predominantly driven by a confluence of factors. The market faced a challenging quarter marked by decreased demand, amplified by a slowdown in the construction sector and subdued export markets.
Additionally, lower feedstock costs and a surplus of supplies contributed to the downward pressure on PVC prices. The region experienced supply chain disruptions due to hurricanes and plant shutdowns, further straining market dynamics. Transitioning to the USA, the market exhibited significant fluctuations, a 2.4% increase from the previous quarter in 2024.
However, the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a substantial 11% drop, emphasizing the volatility in pricing trends. Despite these challenges, the quarter FOB Texas ended with PVC Pipe Grade priced at USD 708/MT, reflecting a persistently negative pricing environment. Seasonality and market correlations underscored the prevailing downward sentiment, indicative of a challenging period for the PVC market in the USA.
Asia
In Q3 2024, the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in the APAC region experienced a period of decreasing prices, with Japan seeing the most significant changes. The overall market was influenced by various factors, including disrupted trade routes, geopolitical tensions, and muted demand. Supply chain disruptions, particularly delayed export demand, contributed to the challenging environment. Upstream price stability and a dip in crude oil costs further impacted PVC pricing in the region. On the cost side, upstream Ethylene prices offered moderate support, resulting in an average level of cost pressure. However, PVC performance in the futures market weakened in the later stages, which affected confidence in the spot market and contributed to a generally bearish outlook across the Asian region. Japan witnessed the most notable price fluctuations, with prices increasing by 1% from the previous quarter, indicating a continued downward trend. The second half of the quarter saw a 3.9% decline compared to the first half. The quarter ended with PVC Suspension Flexible Grade K67 priced at USD 710/MT FOB Tokyo in Japan. These changes reflect a consistently negative pricing environment, characterized by ongoing challenges and uncertainty in the PVC market.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market witnessed an overall trend of increasing prices, influenced by several significant factors. Market dynamics were primarily shaped by stagnant demand, high supply levels, and fluctuating upstream costs. These elements created a challenging environment, leading to pricing pressures. Germany, in particular, experienced the most significant price changes, with a notable increase in PVC prices. This surge can be attributed to constrained supplies, ongoing supply chain disruptions, and reduced production rates. The market also faced challenges from port strikes and floods, impacting operations and contributing to the price volatility seen in the region. The quarter-on-quarter change of 1% indicated a slight positive shift. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter, with a 3.2% price difference, highlighted the evolving pricing dynamics within Q3 2024. The quarter-ending price of USD 964/MT for PVC Suspension Calendering Grade K57 FD Vreden in Germany further underscored the increasing sentiment in the pricing environment for PVC in the region.
Middle East Asia
The third quarter of 2024 has been challenging for the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in the MEA region, characterized by decreasing prices and a bearish sentiment. Several factors have contributed to the decline in PVC prices. Firstly, the market has been influenced by a combination of high supply levels, weakened demand in the construction sector, and stable upstream Ethylene prices. These factors have created a situation of oversupply and limited demand, putting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and concerns about weakening global demand for energy commodities have further dampened market sentiment. Within Saudi Arabia, the PVC market has experienced the most significant price changes in the region. The quarter saw an overall decrease in prices, with a 4% difference between the first and second half of the quarter reflecting the ongoing downward trend. The quarter-ending price for Poly Vinyl Chloride Suspension Grade FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 800/MT, highlighting the continued negative pricing environment in the region.
South America
In the quarter ending September 2024, the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in South America witnessed a notable downward trend in prices, primarily influenced by several key factors. The market experienced a challenging quarter characterized by decreased demand in the construction sector, high inventory levels, and a surplus of low-cost imports from various regions. These dynamics led to a consistent decline in PVC prices throughout the quarter. Brazil, in particular, saw significant price fluctuations, with the market facing the maximum impact of these negative trends. The overall trend for PVC prices in Q3 2024 exhibited a negative sentiment. On the cost side, the overall trend of key upstream material, Ethylene remained weak, further eroding cost support for PVC prices. The quarter-on-quarter change remained stable at 0%, indicating a sustained downward trajectory. Notably, the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a substantial 9.3% decrease, highlighting the intensified price decline in the latter part of Q3. The quarter concluded with PVC Pipe Grade CFR-Santos in Brazil priced at USD 852/MT, reflecting the prevailing bearish market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American market for Poly polyvinyl chloride (PVC) experienced a notable increase in prices, driven by constrained supply and heightened input costs, particularly due to limited inventories and rising crude oil prices, which reached a two-month high. Additionally, severe weather conditions, including the hurricane season and floods, disrupted industrial demand and production rates, further tightening supply chains. The combined effects of these disruptions, along with a shortage of containers and logistical challenges, fueled an upward trajectory in PVC prices.
Focusing on the USA, the country experienced the most significant price fluctuations within the region. Seasonal factors, such as the hurricane season, exacerbated supply constraints, leading to an 8.9% price increase between the first and second halves of the quarter. The pricing environment was further strained by robust domestic demand and export opportunities, particularly in Africa and Asia, as buyers sought alternatives to mitigate supply gaps.
Consequently, the quarter-ending price for PVC Pipe Grade FOB Texas in the USA stood at USD 813/MT. This upward trend reflects a positive pricing environment, driven by high input costs, robust demand, and constrained supply, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures within the PVC market in North America during Q2 2024.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in the APAC region experienced a pronounced increase in prices, driven predominantly by a confluence of supply chain disruptions and heightened production costs. The market faced significant logistical challenges, including severe container shortages and escalating ocean freight rates. These logistical bottlenecks were compounded by reduced production rates due to maintenance shutdowns and upstream cost pressures from rising crude oil and ethylene prices. Additionally, an upsurge in downstream demand, particularly from the construction sector, further tightened the supply-demand balance, exerting upward pressure on PVC prices. Focusing on Japan, the country witnessed the most substantial price fluctuations within the region. The PVC market in Japan was notably impacted by an extended maintenance turnaround at key production facilities, which exacerbated the already strained supply situation. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter also indicated a consistent 2% increase. The quarter concluded with the PVC Suspension flexible grade K67 price assessed at USD 748/MT FOB Tokyo. This consistent upward trend reflects a positive pricing environment for PVC in Japan, influenced heavily by supply constraints and robust demand, signaling a market that remains sensitive to production and logistical dynamics.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in Europe experienced a marginal decrease in prices. This decline was driven by several key factors, including subdued domestic demand within the construction sector, and intensified competition among regional sellers. Additionally, the economic outlook remained uncertain, exacerbating the bearish market sentiments. The upstream cost pressures, especially from ethylene, eased somewhat but were insufficient to buoy PVC prices. Shipping disruptions and logistical challenges further compounded the market's instability, causing many producers to reduce output rates. Focusing on Germany, where the most significant price changes occurred, the market dynamics closely mirrored the broader regional trends. German PVC prices fell sharply, influenced by a combination of high production costs and weak downstream demand, particularly from the construction industry. The first half of the quarter showed a slight resilience but eventually succumbed to a 1% decline in the latter half. The quarter-ending price stood at USD 925/MT for PVC Suspension Calendering Grade K57 FD Vreden, underscoring the bearish market sentiment that has dominated this period. Overall, the pricing environment for PVC in Germany during Q2 2024 has been marginal negative, driven by structural market weaknesses and supply-related disruptions.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in the MEA region experienced a marked upward trend, driven by several critical factors. Key influencers included constrained domestic supplies, elevated production costs stemming from rising crude oil prices, and logistical disruptions. The rebounding crude oil prices significantly heightened cost pressures on PVC production, leading to an inevitable increase in market prices. Compounding these challenges were sustained reductions in production rates and container shortages, which further tightened the supply chain. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, the region witnessing the most substantial price flux, these dynamics were particularly pronounced. Seasonal demand fluctuations in the construction sector amplified price volatility, with the peak season typically driving up prices. The overall trend was an escalatory one, reflecting an increasing sentiment in the market. Notably, a 4% price increase between the first and second halves of Q2 highlights mid-quarter accelerations in price dynamics. By the end of the quarter, the price of Poly Vinyl Chloride Suspension Grade FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia closed at USD 827/MT. This consistent increase underscores a positive pricing environment for PVC, driven by robust demand and constrained supply. The interplay of high upstream costs, logistical bottlenecks, and seasonal demand spikes has created a market characterized by increased prices and tightened supply chains, reflecting a predominantly positive market sentiment.
South America
In the second quarter of 2024, the Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) pricing landscape in the South American region witnessed a significant uptrend. This surge was primarily influenced by various factors such as supply chain disruptions, limited inventories, high selling costs, and elevated freight charges. The market was further impacted by production cuts in key exporting nations and fluctuating crude oil prices, which heightened cost pressures and propelled PVC prices upwards. Brazil, in particular, experienced the most substantial price fluctuations within the region, with a notable 7% price variance between the first and second half of the quarter. This volatility in pricing reflected the dynamic nature of the market, where demand-supply dynamics, seasonal weather patterns, and currency fluctuations played a crucial role in shaping price trends. The quarter-ending price of USD 977/MT for PVC Pipe Grade CFR-Santos in Brazil underscored the prevailing bullish sentiment in the market, signaling a positive pricing environment that favored sellers amid tightening supplies and growing demand. As the market navigates these complexities, continuous monitoring of economic indicators, construction activity, and supply chain conditions will be crucial for accurately projecting the demand for PVC in the coming months.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has been a period of increasing prices for Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) in the North American region. Several factors have influenced market prices during this time.
Firstly, there has been a surge in demand from the downstream construction sector, driven by infrastructure development projects and increased manufacturing activity. In a concerning turn of events, the collapse of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge has raised alarms regarding the smooth movement of PVC in the United States. This incident comes at a precarious time when tank supplies in the region were already under strain due to unfavorable weather conditions.
This quarter, the focus is on consumer inflation data in the United States, particularly following a strong payroll employment report indicating a robust labor market. Currently, interest rates are in a contractionary phase, aiming to slow down economic expansion. Moreover, the PVC exported value dipped by 5.2% during January 2024 indicating a surge in the inventory levels. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at 7%, indicating a significant upward price movement. To conclude, the latest quarter-ending price for PVC Pipe Grade FOB Texas in the USA was USD 736/MT during March 2024. The pricing environment for PVC in the North American region during Q1 2024 has been positive, with increasing prices driven by improved downstream demand and supply constraints.
APAC
The Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market has experienced a decline in the APAC region during the first quarter of 2024. The market has been influenced by various factors, including weak downstream demand, and ample supplies. Despite increased crude oil prices, the PVC market has remained steady. Confidence in the spot market has weakened, resulting in temporary fluctuations and consolidation. On the PVC demand front, the demand from the Chinese construction sector remained low during the quarter. Stocking operations were predominantly geared toward meeting demand. Producers had previously offered discounts in March deals in Vietnam to stimulate sales, signaling ongoing challenges in the market despite price adjustments. Traditionally, Taiwanese producers had set benchmarks for PVC pricing in Asian markets. However, recent developments suggested a departure from this trend, with some Chinese producers choosing to maintain stable export prices amidst unfavorable supply-demand dynamics. The inventory levels in the downstream market were elevated, characterized by weak demand and sales, making it challenging to stimulate the sluggish market through infrastructure initiatives. However, In Japan, PVC prices have increased by 3.7% during this quarter, reaching USD 724/MT for PVC Suspension Flexible Grade K67 FOB Tokyo in March 2024 due to constrained supplies.
Europe
The recent increase in PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) prices in the European market during the quarter ending March 2024, reflected moderate demand and a scarcity of suppliers. Challenges faced by the European PVC supply chain, including logistics disruptions linked to the Red Sea turmoil, contributed to the current PVC pricing trend. Downstream production rates have decreased due to supply disruptions, leading market participants to take a cautious stance on further changes. Limited PVC supplies in the German domestic market were notable despite low demand fundamentals amidst slowed construction activities. Global crude oil prices surged, surpassing USD 87 per barrel, driven by factors like tighter physical markets, OPEC+ production cuts extension, and geopolitical tensions. However, PVC prices in the German market remained stagnant, with a narrowed demand-supply gap and limited stock availability amid rising input costs in the middle of the quarter. The supply concerns emerged in March 2024 as the Easter holidays approached, particularly focusing on German ports facing closures during weeks 13 and 14 due to the holidays. Moreover, the export value of PVC increased by approximately 27% in January 2024 indicating a shortage of inventories in the line of production rate cuts further escalating the PVC prices this quarter.
Middle East Asia
The first quarter of 2024 was a positive period for the Poly polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market in the MEA region. PVC prices underwent significant changes, particularly in Saudi Arabia. Influential factors included increased downstream demand in the construction industry, limited stock availability, and stabilizing upstream ethylene prices. These factors created a bullish market situation with moderate supply and moderate to high demand. In Saudi Arabia, PVC prices surged in February 2024 due to increased domestic demand from the construction industry and limited stock availability. Business conditions improved sharply, with downstream construction companies expressing optimism about their growth prospects. Demand for PVC ranged from moderate to high, supporting product costs and boosting buying confidence in the downstream industry. Overall trends, seasonality, and price change correlations showed a gradual increase in PVC prices throughout the quarter. Prices experienced a positive percentage change from the same quarter last year, indicating market growth. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was also positive, reflecting continued upward momentum in prices. In conclusion, the PVC pricing environment in the MEA region, particularly in Saudi Arabia, was positive in the first quarter of 2024, influenced by increased demand, limited supply, and stable upstream prices. The quarter-ending price for PVC Suspension Calendering Grade K60 FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia was USD 765/MT.
South America
The PVC price trend in South America was on the upward side in the first quarter of 2024 due to constrained regional supplies and tight stock availability. The PVC price trajectory in the Brazilian market continued to be impacted by disruptions in the supply chain following a collision involving the Bridge at Baltimore and a container ship in the USA on the early morning of March 26th. This incident posed another threat to the PVC supply chain, coupled with a moderate increase in downstream demand towards the end of March 2024. The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore further exacerbated disruptions, significantly affecting traffic flow through the Maryland port. This port served as a vital center for warehousing and transshipment activities for various commodities, including PVC, along the US East Coast. Traders adjusted their pricing strategies based on warehouse stock availability, while adverse weather conditions intermittently disrupted terminal operations, prompting careful contingency planning. Despite an improvement in downstream demand, traders cautiously raised product prices to maintain margins. Moreover, as per the latest data, the imported value declined by 1% in February 2024 indicating tight stock availability in the Brazilian market.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market witnessed a decline in prices in Q4 2023. The market was impacted by limited demand from the downstream construction and packaging sectors, and ample supplies.
The limited demand for PVC in the USA was due to sluggish economic recovery and stagnant trading conditions in the construction segment. The quarter-ending price of PVC Pipe Grade FOB Texas in the USA was USD 679/MT. Anticipating a price increase resulting from the new import tariff, buyers temporarily halted their purchasing activities for this time frame. Additionally, international factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and a drought affecting the Panama Canal, further complicated the USA's international container logistics during the terminating quarter of the year.
Responding to a significant decline in spot export prices relative to contracted prices, US buyers are currently in active discussions about potential reductions in contract PVC prices. The disruptions in US shipping caused by Panama Canal issues and the continued decline in crude oil values also impacted pricing dynamics in the North American PVC market.
Asia
The Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in the APAC region saw an overall decline in prices during Q4 of 2023. In the second half of the quarter, the limited inquiries in the regional market for PVC and production cutbacks led to a balanced market situation with moderate supply levels. The first half of the quarter saw a low to moderate demand for PVC in the downstream construction and packaging industry which led to a bearish market situation. In November, the PVC market experienced a price decline, attributed to modest downstream demand and lingering uncertainties impacting regional buyers' confidence in purchasing. The domestic spot price for PVC initially dropped and later rebounded in response to the unpredictable market conditions. The market players felt pressure to reduce high pre-procured stock levels, leading to sales at lower margins. On the upstream side, the closing price of the primary US WTI crude oil futures contract saw a decrease influencing the downward trajectory of PVC prices. Conclusively, the spot market conditions were unfavorable in Q4 of 2023, and overall trading activity was moderate towards the end of the quarter. Most manufacturers' quotations remain stable, and downstream transactions are approached with caution. Thus, the price of PVC for Pipe Grade was assessed at USD 803/MT, FOB Busan (South Korea) in December 2023.
Europe
The Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) market in Europe witnessed a challenging Q4 2023, with multiple factors impacting the prices. One of the primary reasons was the slow movement of downstream construction industry consumption, leading to a bearish trend for PVC in December 2023. Another significant factor was the adequate availability of inventories, which further impacted the prices negatively. Additionally, high input costs, shortage of supplies, and destocking sentiments among market players also weighed on the price momentum in November and December 2023. Germany saw the most significant changes in prices, with a bearish trend in most of 2023. The strategy of reducing operating rates to protect profit margins for producers and traders proved insufficient for suppliers to boost margins, given the competitive pressures from the import market. Despite production cutbacks, PVC supplies consistently struggled due to low demand in Q4 of 2023. The European PVC market notably outperformed its global counterparts, leading import suppliers to redirect shipments to the region during the global market downturn in November 2023.
Middle East Asia
The Poly Vinyl Chloride (PVC) prices in the Middle East Asian region (MEA) region were overall weak in the fourth quarter of 2023. Firstly, the market experienced a bearish trend, with high supplies and low demand in the first half of the month. The oversupply of PVC in the region led to a downward pressure on prices, as market participants had amassed substantial inventories. Additionally, weak demand in the downstream industry, particularly in the construction sector, further contributed to the subdued market conditions. In terms of specific country analysis, Saudi Arabia witnessed a decline in PVC prices during this quarter. The overall demand in the region remained moderate, and the market was influenced by competitive offers. Moreover, the export-focused PVC markets in Saudi Arabia faced diminished demand conditions, adversely affecting their growth prospects and exerting pressure on industrial profit margins. The interplay of ample supplies and decreased export inquiries aligned with the decreased pricing trends of PVC. In terms of domestic demand, purchases were mainly influenced by immediate requirements, and consumer interest in PVC within the downstream segments remained moderate throughout the month. Recent assessments revealed that global consumers scaled back both their procurement and manufacturing production activities, presenting additional challenges for the PVC market. As a result, these factors have contributed to a delay in the price momentum of the commodity in the terminating quarter of 2023.
