Despite Export Challenges, Ukraine Anticipates Unchanged Winter Wheat Sowing

Ukrainian agriculturalists are projected to maintain the extent of winter wheat cultivation for the upcoming 2024 harvest, despite grappling with elevated logistics expenses due to the ongoing export crisis caused by the wartime conditions.

On the preceding Monday, the Ministry of Agriculture shared findings from surveys that hinted at the possibility of a decline in the area allocated to winter wheat cultivation for the 2024 harvest, alongside an anticipated increase in the area designated for winter rape, expected to reach a record high.

Vysotskiy stated, "Wheat not significantly – minus 0.1%." This particular estimation has not been previously reported. He elaborated that if there is indeed a decrease in the overall winter grain cultivation area, it would be compensated by the allotment for other grains. He projected a decline of approximately 5.4% in the cultivation of barley for the upcoming winter season.

For the 2023 harvest, Ukraine planted around 4.1 million hectares of land with winter wheat, while the acreage designated for winter barley amounted to approximately 615,000 hectares.

In Ukraine's agricultural landscape, winter wheat holds a traditional prominence, contributing to at least 95% of the nation's total wheat output. As of now, farmers have completed the wheat harvest for 2023, accumulating a yield of 21.94 million metric tons. This stands in contrast to the 20.7 million tons harvested in 2022.

While the ministry has refrained from issuing a precise projection for the aggregate sowing area for the year 2024, it has indicated the potential for an 8% increase in the overall winter crop sowing area, translating to an expansion of 0.5 million hectares compared to the previous season.

Trade observers have speculated that the augmentation in the planting area for winter crops, particularly oilseeds, might lead to a reduction in the cultivation of spring grain crops. Corn and spring barley are deemed to be the most likely crops to experience this shift.

Current conditions have constrained Ukraine's export capacities, with only limited volumes capable of being dispatched through small river ports on the Danube or via the country's western land border with the European Union. In response, local producers adapted their cultivation plans for 2023, shifting from grain crops to oilseeds. Although oilseeds entail higher costs and produce less volume, this alteration in focus proved to be a strategic response.

It is noteworthy that Ukraine had already implemented a reduction in its corn cultivation area in favor of sunflowers in the preceding year, further exemplifying the agricultural sector's flexibility in response to market conditions.