For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America:
In Q3 2024, the North American Wheat market witnessed a significant uptrend in prices driven by a combination of factors. Excessive wet conditions in various parts of the United States continued to reduced overall wheat availability, causing demand to outstrip supply and putting upward pressure on prices.
While, on the other side, the International demand for U.S. wheat surged, particularly from countries experiencing domestic shortages or geopolitical tensions, which further drove up prices. Higher input costs, including rising prices of fertilizers, energy, and transportation, increased the production cost for U.S. wheat farmers, and these costs were reflected in the export prices. Additionally, the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies during this period, making U.S. wheat more competitive in global markets. This spurred increased demand, allowing U.S. exporters to raise prices. Trade policies and tariff shifts in other wheat-exporting countries may have also made U.S. wheat more attractive to global buyers, further fueling demand.
Overall, the USA, experiencing the most substantial price changes, navigated a challenging quarter marked by supply constraints and higher demand from end-user industries. Despite a slight decrease from the previous quarter, the overall trend in Q3 was positive and concluded with Wheat priced at USD 250/MT FOB Chicago, reflecting a consistently rising pricing environment. Disruptions like [Black Sea shipping infrastructure damage] added complexity to the market dynamics.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 2024, the APAC Region witnessed a notable surge in Wheat prices, driven by a confluence of factors. The market experienced heightened volatility due to supply constraints stemming from adverse weather conditions impacting key wheat-producing regions. This led to reduced harvest yields, exacerbating the already tight supply situation. Furthermore, robust demand from various downstream sectors, such as food processing and animal feed industries, sustained upward price momentum. In India, the pricing environment for Wheat saw the most significant fluctuations. The market exhibited a consistent upward trend, reflecting the delicate balance between constrained supply and escalating demand. As a result, traders and buyers have been compelled to accept goods at elevated costs, further cementing the price trend. Looking ahead, price rise in other nations ahead of weather issues also impacts the overall wheat availability across the global market, further supporting the higher prices. Overall, this situation underscores the vulnerability of agricultural markets to climate variability and the cascading effects of policy decisions. While, the overall quarter culminated with a price of USD 300.69/MT Ex Bareilly, signalling a persistent bullish sentiment in the pricing landscape.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, the European wheat market experienced a consistent upward price trend, driven by supply constraints and strong demand. Wheat prices surged due to a combination of reduced harvests, adverse climatic conditions, and logistical disruptions, which collectively tightened market availability. Ukraine played a pivotal role, witnessing significant price fluctuations as it emerged as a key wheat exporter, catering to heightened global demand amidst limited supply from alternative regions. The quarter saw active export activity from Ukraine, with increased volumes pushing up domestic prices. Ukrainian wheat, valued for its quality and competitive pricing, became a sought-after commodity, particularly in regions where local production had declined. The supply-side was further strained by weather challenges and geopolitical tensions, making it difficult for farmers to meet delivery schedules, thus tightening supply and raising prices. On the demand side, both domestic and international buyers intensified their procurement efforts due to shortages or elevated wheat prices in other markets. This competition drove prices higher throughout the quarter, despite a notable drop at the start. The quarter ultimately closed with a 4% increase in wheat prices compared to Q2, reaching USD 228/MT FOB Odessa. This price rise reflects the market's sensitivity to supply disruptions and robust demand, marking a strong pricing environment for wheat in Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American wheat market experienced a volatile journey, ultimately trending upward despite fluctuations. The quarter began with a downturn driven by substantial offers from major producers like the USA and Russia, alongside robust global exports. This initial decline was fueled by predictions of surplus wheat from large harvests, reduced consumption in flour mills, and a strong dollar making wheat more expensive for foreign buyers.
Mid-quarter saw a price resurgence due to global production volatility, adverse weather in key regions, and geopolitical tensions. A potential North American rail strike raised supply chain concerns, while increased freight charges and logistical delays, particularly in major shipping routes, added complexity. The transition from winter to spring sowing also contributed to price volatility through speculative trading.
However, as June began, prices dropped again, reflecting seasonal pressure from northern hemisphere harvests. The FAO Cereal Price Index decreased, with global export prices falling across all major cereals. The U.S. market faced high supply due to substantial inventories and reduced end-user quotations. Competition from producers like Canada, along with improved weather conditions, weakened U.S. market dominance.
Throughout the quarter, the market remained in flux, resulting in a supply-demand imbalance. The situation led to narrower profit margins and decreased profitability for wheat and other row crops as output prices declined faster than input costs. This volatility underscored the complex interplay of factors influencing the North American wheat market in Q2 2024.
Asia Pacific
In Q2 2024, the APAC region experienced a notable drop in wheat prices due to several key factors. The quarter began witnessing a downward trajectory with a steady upward in the middle and the end of the quarter. Starting with April 2024, Wheat prices witnessed a pessimistic market outlook, with Indian domestic markets experiencing notable weakness and prices dropping by more than 5 percent as April 2024 commenced. This drop in the purchases so far was largely due to late harvesting in some major growing states and also because of the ongoing elections in north India as traders already possessed more than sufficient stocks. Supporting this further, various market players and farmers were additionally resistant to destocking their stocks, resulting in weakened procurements within the market. This drop in procurement could also be on account of farmers holding on to their produce in anticipation of higher rates later during the year or increased buying by private players who are looking to replenish their inventories by selling them at a higher price. Concerning the supply side, there was sufficient availability of Wheat to meet the demands of end-user industries. Moreover, with the arrival of recent harvesting, the inventories concerning Wheat continued to remain on the upper side concerning the overall demand arriving from the region. Spot market transactions involving Wheat were on a moderate level with market demand majorly based on previous stockpiles held by the traders, driven primarily by immediate necessities. Moving further in May and June the prices rebound yet steadily supporting a modest rise in regional and overseas demand. However, despite of steady upward trend, the overall market sentiments remained subdued marking a pessimistic trend. Factors supporting this modest resurgence in the prices were influenced by improved market transactions, a steady rise in procurements among end-users, and farmers holding onto their wheat instead of selling it to the government which further resulted in a decreasing the overall supply available in the market. Another contributing factor is the continuous depreciation of the INR against the dollar, which has made wheat imports costlier for downstream sectors, leading traders and buyers to grapple with higher prices. Conclusively, the pricing environment in India for Q2 2024 has been on the downward side with the supply side still outspacing the demand side of the market.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European wheat market, particularly in Ukraine, experienced a significant upward trend in prices, driven by a complex interplay of factors that reshaped market dynamics. The quarter was characterized by adverse weather conditions across Europe, including severe droughts and unseasonable frosts, which had a detrimental impact on crop yields and depleted existing stockpiles. These climatic challenges were particularly acute in Ukraine, where unpredictable weather patterns disrupted critical growth phases, leading to diminished harvest prospects and heightened market uncertainty. Supply chain disruptions further exacerbated the situation. The shutdown of key agricultural processing plants and damage to export infrastructure constricted wheat availability, creating bottlenecks in the distribution network. This logistical strain coincided with an increase in global demand, as import-dependent nations rushed to secure their supplies amidst growing concerns of prolonged shortages. Ukraine emerged as the epicenter of price volatility within the region. The country witnessed the most dramatic price changes, driven by a combination of weather-related yield reductions and escalating production costs. Rising input expenses, particularly for fertilizers and fuel, contributed to the upward pressure on prices. Additionally, heightened export demand further strained the already tight supply, pushing prices higher. Seasonality played a crucial role in price dynamics. The planting and flowering stages of wheat crops were especially vulnerable to the extreme weather events experienced during the quarter, amplifying concerns about future harvests and driving speculative activity in the market. Analyzing the quarter's price trends reveals a notable pattern. The Q2 saw a substantial price increase compared to the first quarter. This upward trajectory is further evidenced by a 6% increase from the previous quarter, underscoring the persistent bullish sentiment in the market. The quarter concluded on an optimistic note, reflecting a positive pricing environment despite the numerous challenges faced. This price point indicates that supply constraints were the primary driver of market dynamics, overshadowing demand fluctuations and consistently pushing prices higher.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The Wheat market in North America encountered significant challenges during Q1 2024, marked by substantial price fluctuations driven by various factors. Overall, the pricing trend for Wheat in the region has been adverse, witnessing a decline of over 5% compared to the previous year's last quarter. Canada, experiencing the most notable price changes, faced heightened volatility.
Concerns surrounding China's economic slowdown and weaknesses in local livestock sectors, significant importers of wheat from the APAC region, influenced Wheat prices. Additionally, persistently low prices from other exporting markets like Russia, supported by record exports from the Black Sea, continued to exert downward pressure on global wheat prices, impacting North America as well. A key contributing factor to this trend was further supported by the cancellation of major shipments by Chinese buyers, aimed at securing better prices of products from other countries and enhancing food security.
Moreover, the strengthening of the Canadian dollar against other currencies, particularly the US dollar, along with rising shipping costs, further elevated the relative cost of Canadian Wheat for international buyers, contributing to a pessimistic market trajectory. Overall, despite an ample supply within the Canadian market, subdued trade activities led to an bearish outlook for Wheat prices in the country. In conclusion, the pricing environment for Wheat in North America during Q1 2024 remained predominantly negative, influenced by reduced demand, increased shipping costs, and shifting consumer preferences toward other nations. The quarter-ending prices for Wheat FOB Vancouver in Canada were recorded at USD 237/MT.
Asia Pacific
Within the Apac region in the first quarter of 2024 particularly In India, wheat prices declined throughout the quarter, albeit with a modest rise at the outset driven by increased demand from the downstream food industry. However, this uptick was counterbalanced by ample stock availability among market participants. Concurrently, India's manufacturing sector showed substantial improvement, with factory activity expanding at its fastest pace in four months in January, fueled by robust demand and positive outlooks. However, the momentum shifted as February began, and the market witnessed an opposing trajectory. The decline was driven by merchants accumulating higher wheat inventories ahead of new crop arrivals, prompting them to offer existing stocks at discounted prices. This was further influenced by the INR's appreciation against the dollar during the month. Despite this, overall trader momentum remained subdued due to lower-than-expected regional demand. The market situation in India remained uncertain, with demand remaining low. The supply-demand imbalance pressured prices, prompting traders with higher stockpiles to focus on destocking activities, supported by quarter-end practices which also impacted the market, resulting in weakened downstream demand and abundant inventories, further pressuring pricing. Traders and suppliers encountered these challenges, contending with risks to profitability due to declining wheat prices and subdued consumption in both regional and neighboring markets. Additionally, to prevent the risk of material deterioration and mitigate additional storage expenses. Overall, the wheat pricing environment in the APAC region, particularly in India, remained negative, with March prices recorded at USD 292/MT Ex Bareilly.
Europe
The pricing dynamics of Wheat in the European region during Q1 2024 particularly in Russia demonstrated a negative trend with values falling by an average of 5 percent. Overall the market trading sentiments remained muted with the supply side outspacing the global demand side however with a modest rise witnessed in the beginning. This rise in prices was somewhere supported by a gradual increase in trade activity witnessed from Russia ahead of overseas quotations, particularly from South Africa and the Apac region. However, factors such as severe frosts in central Russia and neighboring regions along with logistical challenges from stormy weather in the Black Sea ports were the cause of this market dynamics, leading to uncertainty in future pricing. Conversely, as February commenced, the market witnessed a sudden downward trend in the exporting prices of Wheat. This decline stemmed from interconnected factors that significantly impacted the market. Subdued demand from key regions like North Africa and Southeast Asia played a pivotal role. Despite expectations of strong demand, these regions showed little interest in wheat imports, disrupting the supply-demand balance. Additionally, the devaluation of the Russian ruble and euro against the dollar, along with a consistent rise in freight cost ahead of the trader disruption, kept the overall purchasing sentiments among the regional market and other nations muted, further intensifying the overall price drop. This trend continued until the final month with competitive pricing trajectories sustained by Russian authorities ahead of the global decline in wheat prices, which further contributed to this weakened market sentiment and reshaped the global wheat market's competitive dynamics. In conclusion, Russia indicated an overall pessimistic trajectory throughout the first quarter supported by lulled demand and muted newer quotations, with heighten stockpiles the latest prices ending the quarter1 in March for Wheat in Russia was recorded at USD 205/MT FOB Novorossiysk,
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The final quarter of 2023 posed challenges for the North American wheat market, with various factors exerting influence on prices and contributing to a mixed trend. Commencing in October 2023, the cost of wheat experienced a notable increase, diverging from the consistent decline observed in the preceding months. This surge in prices was closely linked to Canada, a significant wheat exporter, grappling with a substantial reduction in its Durum wheat harvest. The impact of this reduction reverberated across all forms of wheat varieties, contributing to an overall rise in prices. Adverse weather conditions, particularly dry spells in critical farming regions, were identified as the primary culprits, resulting in an overall reduction in yield. This decline in wheat production led to a depletion of stocks for major exporters, reaching some of the lowest levels in recent memory.
Moving into November, the supply side witnessed an abundance of local goods sources, accompanied by a slowdown in trade orders as downstream consumption considerably declined, reflected in the 3.0 percent decline in the FAO Cereal Price Index from October. On the supply front, merchants were actively focused on destocking their previous stockpiles at reduced rates. Additionally, competition from other wheat exporters, such as Russia, Ukraine, and other nations, impacted the competitiveness of US and Canadian wheat in the global market.
As December 2023 unfolded, yet again wheat prices experienced a moderate increase, primarily attributed to a surge in global demand. The agricultural landscape witnessed a significant rise in the prices of essential inputs like feed, fuel, and fertilizer, further fortifying the upward trajectory of wheat prices. Beyond these factors, the conclusion of the harvesting season and the concurrent escalation in shipping costs on the global market also played a role in propelling the international price of wheat higher.
Asia Pacific
Throughout the entire fourth quarter of 2023 in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, wheat prices experienced an upward trajectory, albeit with a modest drop in the last month. The surge in domestic wheat prices was primarily linked to a deficiency in imports and lower-than-expected procurement within the merchant community. Additionally, the heightened demand during the festive season significantly contributed to the escalation of wheat prices in India, particularly during October and November. India's festive season, characterized by numerous major holidays and celebrations, traditionally witnesses an upswing in the consumption of wheat and wheat-based products. This surge in demand, coupled with a constrained wheat supply, inevitably exerted upward pressure on prices. This trend continued into November, with India's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 56.0, rebounding from October's 8-month low of 55.5, aligning with market consensus. New order growth improved from October's one-year low, surpassing the series average, while foreign sales continued to rise for the 20th consecutive month, albeit at a slower rate since June. Furthermore, buying activity and input stocks increased, often driven by buoyant demand conditions. November witnessed a notable uptick in food inflation, reaching 8.18 percent, up from October's 2.53 percent. On the supply side, despite continuous regional inquiries, inventory levels among market participants remained relatively low in November 2023. Merchants focused on ramping up their manufacturing activities to meet the persistently growing demand and maintain sufficient order quantities. However, in comparison to this scenario, the market trend for wheat experienced a modest decrease as of December 2023. The domestic market is currently enjoying a favorable surplus of wheat, attributed to substantial inventories combined with reduced trade activity. This surplus in supply has not only expanded consumer choices but has also resulted in advantageous pricing, fostering a positive purchasing environment for December. The market dynamics suggest a shift towards a more balanced and surplus-driven scenario, providing stakeholders with both ample options and favorable pricing in the wheat market during the concluding month of 2023.
Europe
Examining the wheat market in the European region, particularly in Russia during the fourth quarter of 2023, reveals a fluctuating trend. Prices experienced a decline until November, followed by a notable rebound in December. In October, a substantial drop in wheat prices was driven by record-high crop production, resulting in surplus goods in warehouses. Market players responded by gradually lowering purchase prices, contributing to a consistent decline in wheat market prices. Intense export competition with other nations including Ukraine, one of the leading global wheat exporters, played a significant role in the price decline in October 2023. Despite challenges such as the war in Ukraine and a Black Sea blockade, supplies from Ukraine and Russia continued to exert downward pressure on world wheat prices. As per the market experts, this downward trend persisted in November, with the FAO Cereal Price Index averaging 121.0 points, down 3.7 points from October and significantly lower than the previous year. Russia's wheat exports hit a low in November due to disruptions caused by stormy weather in the Black Sea, impacting loading activities at key ports like Novorossiysk. Moreover, on the demand side, downstream demand for wheat declined in the current month due to weakening purchasing sentiments. In contrast to this, FOB prices of wheat from Russia saw a notable increase in December. The downstream food sector remained stable, with a rise in overseas orders. Factors such as rising freight charges, fuel costs, delayed consignments, and rerouting activity contributed to the upward trend in exporting prices. The competition for grain between processing and export-oriented regions intensified, leading to higher prices. Importing regions requiring wheat for operations may face challenges as export companies, aiming to fulfill international contracts willing to pay higher prices to secure supplies. This competitive dynamic has driven prices to a level where processing companies may find it challenging to remain competitive.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Throughout the third quarter of 2023, wheat prices experienced a significant decline in the North American region, particularly in Canada. This downward trend was mainly due to favourable growing conditions and a productive harvesting season in Canada during July. The abundant supplies of major field crops led to a substantial increase in exports and a significant rise in domestic stockpiles. While the ending-year inventories of major field crops are expected to see a slight increase, they are not considered burdensome. Furthermore, Canada faced persistently high temperatures and inadequate soil moisture levels, raising concerns about the quality and export potential of its fresh wheat crop. Consequently, wheat purchasing activity significantly decreased, limiting opportunities to fill the export gap. Market liquidity remained low due to ongoing volatility, making price discovery a challenge as trade participants remained disengaged. Additionally, inflation remained unchanged in September, but economists predict a gradual easing of price pressures in the coming months. The consumer price index increased by 3.7% compared to the same period last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Factors such as competitive logistics and reduced demand from key trading partners contributed to the continuous decline in wheat prices and exports for the month. Additionally, abundant starting stocks in major corn-growing regions resulted in a surplus in the domestic market. with this the cost of Wheat in Canada as September2023 concludes settled at USD 252.
Asia Pacific
Across the APAC region, that too in Indian market the prices of Wheat demonstrate a mixed market Sentiments throughout the entire third quarter of 2023. The prices experienced a decline in the first half of Q3, improved in August, and then plunged again as September began. In July, wheat prices dropped significantly. The demand for wheat was affected by the ongoing heatwave in India, which led to power outages, water shortages, and disruptions in businesses and transportation. This situation resulted in a reduction in disposable income, lowering the demand for wheat-based products. However, demand from downstream food and feed industries remained moderate, balancing overall supplies among Indian merchants. To counter the impact of the heatwave and reduce food inflation ahead of upcoming elections, India initiated discussions with Russia to import wheat at a discounted rate compared to rising global prices. In August, wheat prices increased by approximately 2%. Despite sufficient wheat supply in the nation, attempts by some individuals to create an artificial shortage kept wheat prices relatively high in mid-Q3. By September 2023, the Indian market witnessed a significant drop in demand within the agricultural grains industry. Participants strategically focused on reducing their wheat stockpiles by destocking at lower prices than anticipated. Additionally, favourable weather conditions led to higher product availability, fuelling increased inventory levels among local manufacturers and retailers for the month.
Europe
Throughout the third quarter, the European wheat market experienced a fluctuating trajectory. The withdrawal of Russia from the Black Sea Grain Agreement significantly impacted wheat prices, given that Russia and Ukraine are major global suppliers of wheat and sunflower oil. This move escalated inflationary risks, as these countries' withdrawal disrupted supply chains and increased commodity prices. In many developing nations, local food prices rose due to weakened currencies against the dollar, affecting grain and vegetable oil purchases. Furthermore, In July 2023, Russia's inflation rate reached 3.3%, driven by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which disrupted supply chains and raised commodity prices. The rubble’s depreciation made imports costlier for businesses and increased wheat prices for foreign buyers, making it challenging for farmers, traders, and consumers. With Russia's departure from the agreement, the scarcity of ships and Western traders' eagerness to engage with Moscow raised transportation costs for Russian wheat, especially as the Ukraine conflict threatened vital Black Sea supply routes. As September began, the downstream demand for wheat decreased, further weakening purchasing sentiments. The high inflation rate posed a significant challenge to the Russian economy, reducing consumers' purchasing power and hindering business operations. Pressure mounted on the Russian government to address inflation, although available options remained unclear. Traders speculated that Russia's surplus supply this year would maintain low wheat prices amid rising costs of other agricultural commodities, including sunflower oil. Concerns about declining yields in major wheat-producing nations were partially offset by Russia's surplus, contributing to market stability.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Across the North American region, the prices of Wheat demonstrate a mixed market trend throughout the second quarter of 2023. The prices of Wheat in Canada improved slightly with the start of April, which was a result of a slight increase in domestic inquiries successfully catered by available stockpiles among the local merchants. However, mid of the second quarter again witnessed a significant dip in the prices of Wheat because of a decline in manufacturing activities supported by weakened Raw material prices purchased by manufacturers to produce various products, including Wheat. Moreover, as per May’s trend, the prices for energy and petroleum products fell for a fourth consecutive month in May 2023, leading to the monthly decrease in the IPPI (Industrial Product Price Index). Apart from that, as traders assessed a mixed weather outlook and tepid export demand, the prices for Wheat remained low throughout May with the settlement of USD 324/MT FOB Vancouver in Canada. Furthermore, towards the termination of Q2, the prices of Wheat started to rise, balancing the overall supply-demand market.
Asia Pacific
Wheat in the APAC region, primarily in the Indian market, demonstrated a decremented trend during the second quarter of 2023. At the start of the second quarter, the prices of Wheat continued to mimic the market trajectory of the previous month. One of the primary reasons behind the price decline includes excessive rainfall at the end of March and early April, when the wheat crop enters the vital grain-filling stage and gets ready for harvesting in April. This unseasonal rainfall has affected manufacturing activities, and the farmers focused on including manual labor to retrieve the production, owing to which the production capacity has reduced considerably. Moving towards the mid of the second quarter also, the prices of Wheat continued to remain on the south side. With this, the prices of Wheat across the Indian market were recorded at USD 281.97/MT Ex Bareilly in May. Besides this, the rupee has depreciated against the dollar in recent months, making imported goods more expensive. However, it also makes Indian exports more competitive in other countries, which additionally helped to boost exports and put downward pressure on prices.
Europe
Throughout the European region, the prices of Wheat followed a downward price trajectory during the second quarter. The operating rate continued to be witnessed a pessimistic trend even in April, and the demand for the wheat market was even weaker than the previous month. In addition, trade subjects continued to be bearish on the future market. Moreover, after Ukraine and Russia agreed to extend their deal and allow the export of grain from Ukraine Ports in the Black Sea, the prices of Wheat were reduced further in May. Energy markets and crude oil futures sagged, adding to bearish sentiments in grains. With this, the prices for Wheat in Russia were recorded at USD 253/MT FOB Novorossiysk and USD 213/MT FOB Odesa in Ukraine in the mid of the second quarter. Furthermore, the prices of Wheat in Russia and Ukraine continued to maintain their downward trend as a result of weak domestic inquiries successfully catered by available stockpiles among the local merchants until the end of June 2023.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
Over the first quarter of 2023, there were fluctuations in the price of Wheat in North America, and the first month of the quarter saw a fall in prices. Because of the lack of demand and easy access to supplies in the domestic market, Wheat prices have been continuously declining. A decrease in prices is seen in the second month of Q1 as a result of favorable weather in the Northern Hemisphere. The oil and gas industries need for shale gas was also sufficient. In the final month of the quarter, there were enough inventories, and the weather returned to normal, which helped the forecast for output. This has exacerbated the price drop of Wheat in North America. Towards the end of Q1 2023, the price of Wheat was recorded to be USD 340/MT for FOB Chicago (USA) in March 2023.
Asia Pacific
Wheat prices in the Asia-Pacific area fluctuated in the first quarter of 2023 as a result of concerns about the state of the crops in several significant exporting countries. The price climbed in the first half of Q1 as a result of high demand, an imbalance in supply and demand, and the war's detrimental consequences on Ukraine's manufacturing prospects. India also produces a significant portion of the world's food grains, which are impacted by heavy rains, low productivity, and high demand from the end-use industries. As a result of heavy rains and low yields in India, the domestic market saw lower production in the second month of the second half of Q1. The price of Wheat was estimated to be USD 269.53/MT for Ex-Indore in March 2023.
Europe
The first quarter of 2023 saw fluctuations in Wheat prices in Europe, helped by a price increase in the first month of the quarter because of a rise in demand. Grain shipments from Ukraine were restarted in the first half of Q1 in an effort to maintain a global downturn. As a result, food and fertilizer were made available. Due to the abundance of inventories on the domestic market later in Q1's second half, the price was continually declining in line with the product's pricing. Wheat prices rose in the last month of the quarter in the domestic European market as a result of a poor yield, a little rise in crop production and harvesting area, and the impact of the conflict in the region. Towards the end of Q1 2023, the price of Wheat was recorded to be USD 282/MT for FOB Novorossiysk Russia in March 2023.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Wheat prices in North America fluctuated during the fourth quarter because of unfavorable weather and the cancellation of the US harvest. Wheat prices were steadily rising in the first quarter of 2014 due to excessive demand and a lack of supply in the domestic market. The cyclone bomb and blizzards damaged the crops, making the commodity more difficult to locate. Prices rose in the second month of Q4 due to unfavorable weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. The weather reverted to normal, and sufficient inventories in the quarter's final month improved the output prediction. This has further accentuated the disparity in wheat prices in North America. Towards the end of Q4 2022, the price of Wheat was recorded to be USD 529/MT for FOB Vancouver (Canada) in December 2022.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2022, Wheat prices in the Asia-Pacific region fluctuated because of worries about the state of the crops in several important exporting nations. Due to soaring demand, a supply-demand imbalance, and the war's negative effects on Ukraine's manufacturing prospects, the price increased in the first part of Q4. Additionally, India produces more than 25% of the world's food grains, and during the rabi season—which is affected by intense heat and drought—Wheat is grown, which was affected during the month of production. The price rose in the second month of the second half of Q4 as the Indian government-imposed export restrictions on wheat flour to lower record domestic costs. The price of Wheat was estimated to be USD 286.38/MT for Ex-Indore, India, in December 2022, near the end of Q4 2022.
Europe
The price of Wheat fluctuated in Europe during the fourth quarter of 2022, supported by a price increase in the first month of the quarter due to an increase in demand. In order to continue a downturn globally, grain exports from Ukraine were resumed in the beginning half of Q4. This led to a supply of food and fertilizer. The price was consistently falling in line with the product's pricing because there were many inventories on the domestic market later in the second half of Q4. Due to modest growth in crop production and harvesting area, a low yield, and the impact of the conflict in the region, Wheat prices increased in the final month of the quarter on the European domestic market. Towards the end of Q4 2022, the price of Wheat was recorded to be USD 320/MT for FOB Novorossiysk Russia in December 2022.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In North America, due to unfavourable weather and the dismissal of the US harvest, wheat prices varied during the third quarter. Due to excessive demand and insufficient supply on the domestic market in the first part of Q3, the price of Wheat was steadily rising. The crops were impacted by the drought and excessive heatwaves, which made the product harder to find. Due to improved weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, prices fell by 4.2% in the second month of Q3. The weather returned to normal, and the output forecast was enhanced by adequate stockpiles. The variation in the price of Wheat in North America has been further reinforced by this. Towards the end of Q3 2022, the price of Wheat was recorded to be USD 460/MT for FOB Chicago USA in September 2022.
Asia Pacific
Wheat prices in the Asia-Pacific area fluctuated during the Q3 of 2022 due to concerns over crop conditions in several leading exporting countries. In the first half of Q3, due to rising demand, the supply-demand mismatch, and the diminished prospects for manufacturing in Ukraine because of the war, the price soared. Additionally, more than 25% of the world's food grains are produced in India, and Wheat is grown during the rabi season, which is impacted by extreme heat and drought. Later in the second half of Q3, during the second month, the price decreased as the Indian Government restricted wheat flour exports to ease record local prices. Towards the end of Q3 2022, the price of Tallow Oil was recorded to be USD 278/MT for Ex Indore India in September 2022.
Europe
In Europe, Wheat's price decreased during the Q3 of 2022, backed by the drop in part because commercial exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports have resumed. Grain exports from Ukraine were resumed in the first half of Q3, providing food and fertilizer supplies, which was essential to maintaining a downtrend globally. Due to a significant presence of stocks in the domestic market later in the second half of Q3, the price was constantly following the downward trend in the price of the product. Wheat prices fell in the European home market because of a strong increase in the crop production and harvesting area, high yield, and high overall supply fundamentals in the region. Towards the end of Q3 2022, the price of Tallow Oil was recorded to be USD 312/MT for FOB Novorossiysk Russia in September 2022.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
In North America, Wheat prices fluctuated throughout the quarter of Q2, owing to the unfavourable weather conditions and dismissal of harvests in the US. In the first half of Q2, the price of Wheat was continuously decreasing due to weak demand and sufficient availability of the product in the domestic market. During the second month of Q2, the price increased by 8% due to the heatwaves, which devastated domestic crop production. Moreover, the US suffered drought conditions during early May, significantly decreasing the Wheat crop yield with lower winter production. Towards the end of Q2 2022, the price of Wheat was recorded to be USD 440/MT FOB Chicago (USA) in June 2022.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia-Pacific region, the price of Wheat was avidly increasing due to concerns over crop conditions in several leading exporting countries. In the first half of Q2, the price increased due to the demand side raised and the gap in supply and reduced production prospects in Ukraine because of the war. Moreover, India accounts for more than 25% of total food grain production, and Wheat is cultivated during the rabi season, which is affected due to scorching heat. Later in the second half of Q2, the price was increased due to delayed sowing in India backed by heat waves and the early arrival of summer with elevated temperature, which resulted in dehydration of wheat crops, overall impacting the yields in the major cultivating regions. Towards the end of Q2 2022, the price of Wheat was recorded to be USD 367/MT Ex-Indore (India) in June 2022.
Europe
In Europe, Wheat's price fluctuated due to instability in the market sentiments. In the first half of Q2, the price decreased due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, due to which the routes for export were closed, which led to the decrease in the price in the domestic market. Later in the second half of Q2, the price was avidly increased due to disruptions in agricultural potency impacted by war. There was a sharp reduction in the Wheat crop harvesting area and low yield with high overall demand fundamentals, resulting in the Wheat market price hike. Towards the end of Q2 2022, the price of Wheat was recorded to be USD 415/MT FOB Odesa (Ukraine) in June 2022.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In North America, the prices of wheat remained on the upper side due to various factors stemming from unfavorable climatic condition, Russia Ukraine war crisis etc. In the beginning of the Q1 2022, the prices slightly fluctuated due to poor climate condition with extreme heat and dryness. With the end of first half, the prices fell owing to adequate rainfall and good harvest. On the onset of second half, the prices surged gradually owning to Russia-Ukraine war crisis stalling the wheat shipment due to suspended major ports of Ukraine, which is one of the vital growing areas. With soaring insurance and freight cost the Russian trade market was also stifled creating pressure on the alternative countries to export. Towards the end of the Q1 2022, the price of wheat was recorded to be USD 438/ton FOB Vancouver (Canada).
Asia Pacific
In Asia-Pacific region, the prices of wheat increased in the Q1 2022 owing to Russia Ukraine invasion and poor weather condition. At the onset of Q1, the prices slipped down slightly as a consequence of favorable weather and good harvest. With higher inventories the supply demand market was running normal. At the end of first half, the prices rose significantly led by Russia Ukraine war crisis. As the situation got worse the major exporting nation Russia and Ukraine halted the production units building up pressure on the other countries to export wheat with the surging demand, globally. Towards the end of the Q1 2022, the price of wheat was recorded to be INR 22500/ton Ex-Indore (India).
Europe
In Europe, the prices of wheat hovered on the upper side owing to varying factors likely labor shortage, Russia Ukraine invasion etc. During the commencement of Q1 the prices slipped as the demand supply market was normal with strong export market. The prices surged sharply towards Q1 2022 termination with unprecedented supply shock to global consumers. Russia and Ukraine, world’s major vital growing areas are facing stifled supply due to war crisis owing to production halt in Ukraine, labor scarcity, shipment disruption. Also, the resurgence of pandemic resulted in increased freight charges. Towards the end of the Q1 2022, the price of wheat was recorded to be USD 410/ton FOB Odessa (Ukraine).
