White Oil prices in Asia's major markets had mixed trends during March 2025, with China weathering mid-month supply-led volatility and India witnessing a slow softening before stabilization. Regional trends were driven by oscillating crude oil benchmarks, supply chain realignments, and conservative industrial buying, mirroring the twin influence of geopolitical tensions and regional demand-supply fundamentals.

Chinese White Oil prices began the month on a stable footing aided by steady refinery runs and cost-side relief resulting from falling feedstock crude prices. Falling freight rates further eased logistics expenses for imported volumes, ensuring sufficient domestic availability.

Prices did, however, rise 1.9% during mid-March as crude oil benchmarks increased, as geopolitical tensions—such as renewed US sanctions on Iranian oil exports and rumoured OPEC+ output cuts—triggered an increase in crude benchmarks, firming up feedstock prices. Local refinery maintenance schedules tightened domestic White Oil supply, although stability of operations at non-affected plants and regulated downstream purchasing—against subdued industrial sentiment—hindered steeper gains.

On the demand front, consumption for White Oil remained tepid, with buyers making just-in-time purchases to synchronize with seasonal spring production requirements without incurring inventory risks, leaving market activity low-key despite the price hike.

Conversely, India's White Oil market moved in the negative direction throughout March, influenced by declining crude oil prices and poor demand. Reducing feedstock costs enabled producers to cut prices and falling freight prices added vigour to competition from low-cost imports, leading local suppliers to negotiate flexible prices in order to hold on to market share.

Downstream sectors, having already attained sufficient inventories beforehand, restrained purchases to near-term needs, further weakening transaction volumes. However, White Oil prices stabilized toward month-end as supply aligned with demand, with producers avoiding aggressive cuts amid balanced stock levels. Despite this equilibrium, the broader market sentiment stayed cautious, reflecting persistent economic headwinds, and tempered industrial confidence. 

According to ChemAnalyst, in the future, Asian White Oil markets will be prone to remain responsive to crude oil volatility and political supply threats. China's price path is dependent on OPEC+ policy decisions and the rate of post-maintenance refinery restarts, although muted industrial demand could limit meaningful rallies. In India, competitive import pressures and domestic inventory management will dictate white oil pricing, with upside potential linked to seasonal recovery in demand.

Both markets are subject to headwinds from weak global trade sentiment and freight cost volatility, although stabilization in crude oil markets and incremental demand gains could promote relative stability. Overall, cautious procurement behaviour and external market uncertainties will continue to influence White Oil price trends in both markets.