For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, White Oil pricing in North America, especially in the USA, experienced a notable downward trend. This decline was influenced by several interconnected factors, including a significant decrease in demand from the cosmetic industry, coupled with reduced consumer spending, which contributed to a bearish market sentiment. Supply chain challenges, exacerbated by weather disruptions and ongoing geopolitical tensions, further complicated the situation.
Overall, prices decreased by 1% compared to the same quarter last year, with a similar decline observed between the first and second halves of the quarter. This downward pressure on prices was primarily driven by heightened production costs, increased freight charges, and lower refinery run rates, all of which limited the availability of White Oil. Despite improvements in water levels in the Panama Canal, which were expected to enhance the arbitrage opportunities for White Oil, supply conditions remained challenging. A critical issue was the prolonged shutdown of ExxonMobil's Joliet refinery in Illinois, one of the major facilities serving the Chicago area. The refinery lost power due to severe storms and tornado activity in late July, affecting its ability to operate. This incident led to the shutdown of multiple units, including the crude distillation unit and catalytic reformer, significantly impacting White Oil production in the region.
As a result of these dynamics, the quarter-ending price for White Oil cosmetic grade CFR Texas was recorded at USD 1,607/MT. This figure reflects the prevailing negative pricing environment, characterized by subdued demand and ongoing supply constraints that contributed to the overall decrease in prices throughout the quarter. The market's challenges underscored the fragility of supply chains and the impact of external factors on production and pricing.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced mixed performance in White Oil pricing, heavily influenced by global geopolitical tensions, weather disruptions, and fluctuating crude oil prices. China saw the most significant price changes due to supply issues, rising production costs, and subdued demand from the gasoil sector. Key challenges included refinery closures by state-run Sinochem Group, which affected about 2% of China's national output. The Zhenghe and Changyi refineries were closed due to high crude costs and weak fuel demand, impacting production significantly. Despite these closures, there was a slight recovery in production conditions, with the operating rate at small independent refineries rising to 53% in July. However, the scheduled maintenance of 420,000 b/d capacity from PetroChina and Sinopec added further complexity to supply. Overall, Q3 prices declined by 19% compared to last year and by 1% from the previous quarter. Nevertheless, a 2% price increase between the first and second halves of the quarter indicated some resilience, concluding with a quarter-ending price of USD 935/MT for White Oil Technical grade CFR Shenzhen in China.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European White Oil market experienced a predominantly bearish trend, largely influenced by a significant 12% decline in feedstock crude oil prices. Challenging production conditions persisted as major refinery operations operated below capacity due to decreasing margins, prompting organizations to conduct strategic reviews of their European assets. The closure of several refineries, coupled with anticipated future shutdowns, created additional obstacles for White Oil production. Maintenance turnarounds at various refineries during the summer vacation period further exacerbated supply constraints, impacting the availability of White Oil in the European market. Demand from downstream lubricant and cosmetic industries continued to underperform even after the summer vacations. Lubricant blenders across Europe reported ample availability of White Oil, indicating little to no urgency for purchasing larger quantities for stock replenishment. Consequently, prices, which had remained relatively high during the summer months, began to face downward pressure due to this lack of demand. Overall, the combination of reduced crude oil prices, supply chain challenges, and weak demand dynamics contributed to a negative pricing environment for White Oil in Europe during the third quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 in North America, particularly in the USA, has witnessed a steady pricing landscape for White Oil, marked by notable stability amidst varying factors. Despite fluctuations in crude oil prices and refinery operations, the market stability can be credited to balanced supply and demand dynamics, sufficient crude oil reserves, and consistent refinery utilization rates. Minor shifts in crude oil inventories due to geopolitical tensions and production adjustments had limited impact on White Oil prices, as demand absorbed available supplies effectively. In the USA,
White Oil prices experienced slight variations influenced by seasonal demand spikes, particularly during the peak summer season for cosmetic products. However, overall prices remained steady with no change observed between the first and second halves of the quarter. Year-over-year, prices decreased by 7%, indicating previous periods of higher volatility, while the quarter-on-quarter change showed a marginal decline of 1%, highlighting continued market stability.
Closing at USD 1622/MT for cosmetic grade CFR Texas, the quarter concluded with a reaffirmed sense of market equilibrium. Despite external pressures such as geopolitical uncertainties and refinery operations, the market's resilience ensured minimal and well-managed price adjustments. This consistent stability underscores a dependable and predictable market environment for White Oil pricing in North America, reflecting effective management of supply and demand dynamics amidst broader economic conditions.
APAC
In Q2 2024, White Oil prices in the APAC region have demonstrated a largely stable trend, influenced by several significant factors. Throughout this quarter, market dynamics were shaped by a balance between supply and demand, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating raw material costs. The region's ample crude oil supplies, aided by strategic imports and favourable production rates, contributed to stable pricing. However, high freight charges and production cuts due to maintenance overhauls exerted upward pressure, counterbalanced by weak demand from key downstream industries such as lubrication and construction. Focusing on China, the most significant fluctuations in White Oil pricing were observed. The market showed a -26% decrease compared to the same quarter last year, underscoring the lingering impacts of reduced industrial activity and subdued economic growth. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices declined by -7%, reflecting the ongoing moderation in demand and the effect of lower crude oil prices. Despite these changes, the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter remained constant, with no percentage change recorded. The correlation in price changes mirrored global crude oil trends and domestic economic activities, maintaining a steady equilibrium. The quarter-ending price for White Oil Technical Grade CFR Shenzhen stood at USD 920/MT, emphasizing the stable sentiment prevalent in the White Oil market. Overall, the pricing environment has been stable, neither overly positive nor negative, reflecting a well-balanced market landscape despite underlying volatility.
Europe
The European White Oil market mostly witnessed a mixed market sentiment initially with prices exhibiting a bullish market situation during the initial month of the second quarter, and then witnessing a bearish market for the remainder of the second quarter. Initially prices of the White Oil continued to climb attributed to rising production costs, despite demand conditions being moderate. However, towards the middle of this quarter, the market situation transformed as support from production cost waned. With prices of Crude Oil declining by more than 6% during the remainder of the second quarter, the European White Oil was prompted to witness a bearish market situation. Sluggish demand persisted throughout the second quarter for White Oil from the downstream paints and coating industries and from the lubricant industries as prices. Demand conditions from the lubricant industry continued to worsen, other than the fact that during the beginning the beginning of the quarter some suppliers were keen on restocking cargoes arriving from Asia, during early May 2024. However, high inflation rates continue dampened purchasing during the middle of the quarter. On the other hand, the persistent low demand from the paints and coating industry remained subdued through out this quarter. Declining permits, reduced procurement activities amongst German constructors and cancellation of projects continued to impart a negative pressure on the prices of the product. Overall, that market situation of White Oil across Europe, despite exhibiting a positive trend during the initial month, ultimately succumbed to the low demand conditions when this quarter came to a termination.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American White Oil market overall witnessed a stable situation during the opening quarter of 2024. Prices of White Oil were recorded to inclined by approximately 1.5% during the middle of this quarter but later declined by the same magnitude, in the latter half.
With weather conditions being challenging and logistical and transportation costs experiencing a hike, this translated into the prices of White Oil. Moreover, demand for the product was also recorded to be strong as North America witnessed an early and heavy winter season which led to a strong demand from the downstream cosmetic industry. Moreover, the festive New Year season also forecasted positive transactions in the downstream skincare sector.
Prices of White Oil experiencing a hike were also attributed to the expensive imports arriving at the North American market due to disruptions being recorded in key waterways, namely the Suez and Panama Canal, which prompted freight charges to almost double. However, the latter half witnessed steady declines in the prices of products as supply conditions improved with post-festive dullness initiating its effect. Despite prices of feedstock Crude Oil inflating by 10%, the prices did not translate into the prices of White Oil.
Asia
The Asian White Oil market witnessed an overall bearish trend as prices of the product slumped by approximately 20%. The continued slump in the prices of the product was attributed to the low demand from the downstream lubrication industry as manufacturing activities continued to remain in contraction in China and improved only during March 2024. Automotive sales even though witnessed a surge in January 2024, later depreciated overall by 20% as the post-festive dullness continued to prevail across the Chinese market. Moreover, the demand from the construction sector was also recorded to be low as housing starts and house prices continued to decline throughout this quarter, leading to pushback of the construction materials. Despite prices of feedstock Crude Oil increasing by almost 20%, the Asian White Oil market was driven by subdued manufacturing activities, subdued automotive sales, and subdued construction sector. Towards the termination of the third quarter, the construction activity showed some momentum, but suppliers were recorded to be hesitant to procure further material leading to stockpiling of inventories.
Europe
The European White Oil market was recorded to be largely stable despite prices of Crude Oil increasing by approximately 10% during the termination of the first quarter of 2024. The low demand from the downstream paints and coating sector continued to drive the European White Oil market as the construction sector continued to remain mired in the downturn. This is largely indicated by declining permits and construction projects. Overall real estate firms remained downbeat throughout the rest year with outlook conditions being largely pessimistic. Overall investment sentiments remained historically negative with contractions witnessed in all segments of the construction sector, namely residential, commercial building, and civil engineering activities. However, during the middle of the first quarter, the European Polyurethane market received support from the demand side due to improvements in the demand from the importing British, Dutch, and Belgian markets where the construction sector improved. Moreover, challenging conditions in the existing supply chain system also contributed to the increments in the prices due to strikes by Union Workers, which led to limited functionality of railways and resulted in limitations in transportation and logistics.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Prices of White Oil across the North American witnessed a mostly stable situation despite prices of upstream Crude Oil deprecating.
The prime reason attributed for the stability in the prices is largely to moderate demand from the cosmetic industry despite prices of upstream Crude Oil witnessing a depreciation of approximately 16% which was supposed to ease production costs. The moderate demand from the cosmetic industry largely kept the prices of the prices of the product was largely attributed to abnormal weather conditions maintained the purchasing activities of the consumers.
The Northern parts of the United States continued to experience a severe winter climate with higher levels of rain and snow fall, while the Southern parts of the United States continued to experience a warmer than usual climate during the first half Q4 followed by severe rainfalls. Increasing freight charges also played significant role in increasing the increasing the prices of imported cargoes entering the US despite the exporting Asian market witnessing a bearish situation.
APAC
In Q4 2023, White Oil pricing in the APAC region maintained stability amidst moderate demand from downstream industries. Despite a decline in upstream Crude Oil prices, the Chinese market exhibited minimal changes in White Oil prices, as a sufficient gap between existing demand and current supplies was established. The downstream automotive industry experienced stable demand, with a modest 1% increase in automotive sales noted in September and October. The fluctuating prices of upstream Crude Oil are anticipated to raise production costs, consequently impacting White Oil prices. The market outlook foresees a bearish trend in the coming weeks, driven by the shift of major automotive manufacturers towards the electric automotive sector and worsening economic conditions. China observed a slight depreciation of approximately 0.2% in the first week of December 2023, attributed to unchanged demand from the downstream lubricant industry. In the last quarter of 2023, White Oil prices in China recorded a significant 35% decrease compared to the same quarter in the previous year. The current quarter's price of White Oil Technical grade CFR Shenzhen in China stands at USD 1153/MT.
Europe
White Oil prices in the European market displayed a varied trend throughout the fourth quarter of 2024. The technical grade experienced fluctuations, with automotive industry sales witnessing an increase in October and November but a depreciation in December 2023. Conversely, the cosmetic grade consistently exhibited a bullish trend, impacting demand from the lubricant sector. The bullish market situation for cosmetic-grade White Oil in Europe was primarily attributed to the advancing winter season, driving demand in the downstream skincare industry. However, the peak festive month of December presented a reversal in trends for both grades. While demand for technical grade remained subdued, there was an expansion in demand from the cosmetic industry. The heightened demand for the cosmetic grade was driven by improved purchasing sentiments among the local populace, exerting pressure on downstream skincare and cosmetic industries. Additionally, the significant impact of depreciating Crude Oil prices, which plummeted by 16%, contributed to the overall market dynamics. Increasing freight charges, particularly in response to the worsening situation at the Red Sea, also played a role in shaping the mixed trend observed for the product.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Prices of White Oil (cosmetic grade) have witnessed a largely mixed trend with prices declining by more than 5% in the first half of the third quarter of 2023 followed by a marginal increment of approximately 1% towards the termination of the third quarter of 2023. Demand from the downstream industry continued to be moderate as restrictive purchasing sentiments largely prevailed during the first half of the third quarter. The local populace found its purchasing sentiments largely restrictive as increased interest rates and surge of household debt mostly cast a negative outlook on the purchasing activities. Moreover, the peak winter season is yet to arrive from the onset of the last quarter of 2023, which is expected pressurize downstream skincare industry, which is expected to uplift prices of the product from its currently bearish situation, Moreover, towards the end of September 2023, demand from the skincare industry started to strengthen as abnormal precipitation patterns led to strange temperature recordings across North America, with some parts exhibiting higher than normal temperatures and some parts recording lower than normal temperatures.
APAC
Prices of White Oil (technical grade) have exhibited mixed trends in the Asian market with overall situation being bearish as prices depreciating by almost 2% in the in the third quarter of 2023. However, prices of the product marginally rebounded during the month of September as prices of the product inclined by almost 1% during the termination of the third quarter of 2023. The first half of the third of the first half quarter saw prices depreciate as industrial output plummeted with the economy of China entering deflation. However automotive sales in the third quarter rebounded with an inclination of approximately 6%. This created a demand from the downstream engine oil and lubricant sector, which were the main factors of the marginal bullish trend witnessed during the termination of the third quarter of 2023. With purchasing sentiments gradually improving as Mid-Autumn festive season approaches, suppliers found themselves with limited inventory for circulation in the market. The price inclination was further complemented by increasing prices of upstream Crude Oil which increased by almost 25% in the third quarter of 2023.
Europe
Prices of White Oil have mostly exhibited mixed dynamics in the European market throughout the third quarter of 2023 as demand from the downstream skincare and cosmetics industry gradually increased. Throughout the first half of the third quarter purchasing sentiments were mostly restrictive as recessionary conditions prevailed throughout the Eurozone, which mostly deterred purchasing activities in the downstream cosmetics industry. However, prices of the product of the gradually increased as economic conditions improved with inflation rates declining by to almost 4% according to Statistiches Bundesamt, which gradually increased trading activities across the Eurozone and improved purchasing sentiments amongst the consumers. Moreover, the onset of winter season added pressure to the downstream skincare industry which further appreciated the prices. Increasing prices of upstream Crude Oil were also attributed to increased prices of the product, which increased production costs. Moreover, improving supply chain systems also increased transportation charges across Europe. An improved demand amidst recovering economic conditions has largely contributed to the increase in the prices.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The price of White Oil saw a declining trend in the North American region throughout the second quarter of 2023. The business sentiments have been hampered by the uncertainty regarding the economic conditions and debt-ceiling talks. The market transactions were observed to be slow, and sufficient material availability was present in the region. The merchants continued to work through their existing stocks in the domestic market. The demand for the product did not rise due to the sufficient availability to meet the requirements of the downstream cosmetics and personal care industries. Demand conditions weakened notably, however. The fall in new orders was strong in general and the fastest for quite some time in May. Past quarter climbs in selling costs, close by adequate stocks at clients, purportedly drove the decline in new orders. Burdening all-out deals was a more extreme decrease in new product orders. The price of White oil hovered around USD 1762/MT on a CFR Texas basis at the end of the second quarter.
APAC
The cost of White oil remained weak in the Chinese market due to the poor performance from downstream cosmetics and personal care industries throughout the second quarter of 2023. Traders have a poor mentality, their prices have fallen, and the difficulty of arbitrage has increased. Recent NBS data showed that China’s manufacturing PMI has dropped and is below threshold points. These indicates that the stagnant economy tends to the production to fall, and new orders remain bleak in the Chinese market. Business confidence dropped in the region, and slow market transactions have been observed in this period. The downstream demand from the personal care and cosmetics industry was sluggish whereas, the supply was usual in the region. In the given time frame, no supply chain constraints were reported, and the offered quotes for White Oil Technical Grade CFR-Shenzhen settled at USD 1427/MT at the end of the second quarter. Further, sluggish global economic development, decreasing global trade and investment, geopolitical uncertainties, and declining external demand continue to influence China’s trade.
Europe
Throughout the second quarter of 2023, the price trend of White Oil remained in a downturn pattern across the European region due to the decline in raw material crude oil prices in the last two months of Q2. The White Oil had a sufficient supply in the Eurozone area to cater to the downstream requirements. Growth of service sector output, meanwhile slowed sharply as the recent resurgences in spending on services lost momentum. The slowdown signaled stagnation of new business in May and June. The new business activity across goods and services worsened in Q2, as new orders dropped, and demand conditions deteriorated in the Eurozone. Eurozone manufacturers cut their purchasing activity, as the firms showed a preference for existing stock levels in the market. A lack of new contracts remained the primary factor behind the reduced activity and continued to discourage the firms from buying new materials. Falling demand from downstream cosmetics and personal care sectors led to increasing discounting in manufacturing, resulting in the average input prices dropping in the factory.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the US domestic market, the prices of White Oil plummeted in the first two months of Q1 2023, and in the third month, the prices stabilized in the US domestic region. In January and February, the prices contracted amid inflationary pressure and an economic downturn. The demand from the downstream personal care and cosmetics industries remained lackluster, and the spot market transactions were average. As per the market participants, the drop in freight charges and shipment containers is attributed to the bearish market sentiment for White Oil in the domestic market of the USA. In March, the prices were stable amid steady crude oil imports and a balanced supply and demand outlook in the region. Thus, the market prices of White oil Cosmetic Grade CFR Texas settled at USD 2060 per tonne at the end of the first quarter.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2023, the market prices of White Oil showcased a mixed pricing trend in the Indian domestic market. In January, the prices dropped amid weak demand from the downstream personal care and cosmetics industries. Also, the decrease in freight charges, decline in container rates, and global inflation caused a weakening in shipping demand. In February, the prices gained upward momentum, and as the demand outlook improved and production costs rose in the region. The prices of White Oil turned southwards in March owing to weaker cost support from the upstream crude oil in the domestic market, whereas the demand and supply dynamics remained unchanged this month. Thus, the market prices of White Oil FOB JNPT settled at INR 75210 per ton at the end of Q1.
Europe
In Europe, the market prices of White Oil showcased mixed market sentiments in Q1 2023. The overall market prices of White Oil surged in January, backed by positive cost support from the upstream Crude oil and active inquiries from the downstream cosmetics and personal care industries in the region. In February, the prices of White Oil were stable as a balanced demand and supply outlook was observed in the region. Also, the domestic manufacturers maintained adequate inventories to cater to the downstream consumer demand. The prices dropped in the last month due to sluggish demand from the downstream personal care and cosmetics industries. Throughout this month, the production cost declined due to lower TTF natural gas prices in the European region.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
White Oil prices have remained on the upper edge in the US market throughout the fourth quarter 0f 2022. Elevated inflationary pressures across the globe coupled with tight monetary policies have accelerated the pricing dynamics of White Oil in the US market. The cost support from upstream raw materials was limited, as reported by market participants. In November, the prices of natural gas escalated and pressured the production costs of White Oil in the domestic region. Furthermore, the procurement from the downstream personal care sector was average, and the competitive offers from other countries have weighed on the market fundamentals of White Oil. The ChemAnalyst database has shown that White Oil cosmetic grade CFR Texas was settled at USD 2359 per ton in Q4-end.
APAC
In the Indian domestic market, the prices of White Oil have retained their downward trajectory in the entire Q4. The prices fell amid abundant supplies and a slowdown in demand from the overseas market. The demand from the downstream personal care sector was not sufficient to cause a rise in the market value of White Oil. The market has operated at low levels, and the shipment has been lowered. On the upstream front, the cost support from upstream Crude Oil has also weakened and supported the decline in the price realizations of White Oil in the fourth quarter. In addition, the freight rates have also remained on the lower end. Consequently, White Oil WT 150 FOB JNPT prices were settled at USD 1038 per ton in December.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the prices of White Oil have demonstrated mixed market sentiments. The high inflation, coupled with limited supplies of natural gas, has hampered the market growth of White Oil in the domestic region. The procurement of White Oil from the end-use industries was limited, prompting the traders to reduce their offers and increase the shipments amid the destocking season in December. The prices of upstream Crude Oil have remained in the negative territory throughout the fourth quarter and weakened the market sentiments. Furthermore, high natural gas prices have impacted production costs and culminated in lower operating rates. However, at the end of Q4, the inflationary pressures have been eased, and manufacturing activities been improved in the German market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The White Oil prices have observed an overall uptrend throughout the third quarter of 2022. The overall market transactions for White Oil remained below average amidst steady demand in the domestic market, followed by a conservative attitude of the market participants regarding bulk procurement over the current inventories. The market has observed softer fundamentals besides the uncertainties regarding the hurricane season on the U.S. Gulf coast. The U.S. market has struggled with rising interest rates and global macroeconomic constraints in Q3. On the upstream price front, crude oil and natural gas costs fluctuated amidst the economic slowdown across the regional market. Consequently, White Oil cosmetic grade CFR Texas (USA) closed its market at USD 2205 per ton on September 2022.
APAC
White Oil prices in the Asia Pacific region demonstrated mixed market sentiments throughout the third quarter of 2022. In the domestic market of China, the resumption of production activities has accelerated the market growth of White Oil in early Q3. However, entering August, the White Oil Prices plummeted against the more moderate Crude Oil prices with the increased oversupply amid the weakened demand outlook. The combination of demand destruction in Europe and Asia coupled with volatile energy prices has prompted negative cost pressure on the price realization of White Oil among Chinese manufacturers. Furthermore, towards the end of the third quarter, the White Oil offers have accelerated against the backdrop of rising inquiries from the downstream personal care industries. Additionally, in India, the White Oil demand has passed through an off-seasonal period amidst the monsoon. Therefore, considering the aforementioned factors, White Oil Technical grade CFR Shenzhen (China) prices assembled at USD 1610 per ton at quarter-end.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2022, White Oil prices oscillated in the European region. The persistent backlash between European nations and Russia has severely squeezed the manufacturing activities of downstream personal care industries in the German market. In mid-Q3, the burgeoning energy values propelled the White Oil manufacturing costs, affecting the terminal demand fundamentals. The high freight rates and logistics issues with ongoing summer holidays affected buying interest. The market participants have reported that new orders rose at the softest pace this month owing to steep upstream pressures paired with economic uncertainty, weighing on the nation's economic growth. Furthermore, the euro has weakened most significantly against the dollar, resulting in remarkable import inflation across the major economies of Europe.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
In the second quarter of 2022, the White Oil market in the North American region was weakened amidst inadequate demand from the domestic and overseas markets. The retaliatory sanctions on the Russian energy supplies onslaught of additional Crude Oil supply from the US strategic petroleum reserves showcased no deficit in supply in the US domestic market. Furthermore, the region observed an oversupply scenario against the lul demand from the downstream polymers sector. The COVID situation in China significantly impacts the upstream white oil. Whereas the inquiries from the food and medical sector have remained average.
Asia Pacific
During the second quarter of 2022, the White Oil market in the Asia Pacific region remained bearish. The demand remained sluggish amidst the resurgence of COVID in China, which significantly impacted the Polymer industry. Despite the higher cost margins and rising energy prices, the downtrend in the Polymer market has narrowed the spread for White Oils in the APAC region. Furthermore, according to the customs data, the Chinese blenders supplied around 380,000 MT of heavy bunker fuel in total during the last month of the second quarter. As for light bunker fuel, the domestic marine oil supplies stood at around 170,000 MT in the month, rising by 20,000 MT or 13.33% on a month-on-month basis in June.
Europe
As of the second quarter, the White Oil market in the European region was staggered with different trends. The eastern part observed a bullish sentiment in the market dynamics amidst the ongoing conflict and imposition of western sanctions on Russia. At the same time, the Northwest European region market observed a persistent gyration as the US market participants were restocking the inventories in the region ahead of the hurricane season to keep the supply chain smooth. In addition, the inquiries for White Oil were inadequate to support the price chart as the European players were seeking finished goods due to the gyration in the domestic market.
