For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
White Oil prices in the North American market declined by approximately 11% during Q4 2024, despite an initial rise of around 2% at the start of the quarter. Early in the period, supply conditions were unfavorable due to seasonal hurricanes and a strike between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). These disruptions caused significant shipping backlogs, increasing lead times for deliveries and temporarily supporting prices. Additionally, weekly refinery run rates in October were assessed to be lower, further curtailing White Oil production across the region.
Toward the end of the year, market dynamics shifted as domestic refinery run rates increased, reaching 90.65% in November 2024, up from 88.25% in October, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This improvement, coupled with a 1.6% decline in crude oil prices, reduced White Oil production costs.
Meanwhile, suppliers focused on liquidating inventories, resulting in an oversupply that turned the market into a buyer’s market. This surplus placed substantial downward pressure on prices, culminating in the overall depreciation of White Oil prices by the end of the quarter.
Europe
The European White Oil market remained under sustained downward pressure throughout Q4 2024, marked by a bearish market sentiment. The region was amply supplied by Middle Eastern imports, while sluggish demand persisted due to contraction in manufacturing activities during the quarter. Supplies further improved as European producers resumed operations post-summer holidays, but limited offtakes led to an oversupplied market. By late October, an influx of cargoes arriving simultaneously caused stock build-ups in storage tanks, exacerbating the oversupply. However, increased shipping costs due to Houthi attacks on vessels and the necessity of rerouting shipments around the Cape contributed to higher price adjustments. Despite these factors, buyers reluctantly accepted higher costs for replenishment barrels.
In November 2024, additional quantities of light and heavy neutrals were offered at low prices, maintaining the bearish momentum in the market. Destocking activities intensified toward the end of the quarter, with suppliers liquidating existing inventories. The extended holiday period further weakened demand conditions, as many market participants reduced activity. Efforts to stabilize the market included run rate reductions by producers aiming to balance supply and demand dynamics.
Adding to the challenges, inland trading across the European market experienced disruptions, particularly in Northwestern Europe, where maintenance activities at key ports constrained logistical efficiency. These factors, combined with weak downstream demand and abundant supplies, contributed to a prolonged bearish trend in the European White Oil market by the end of 2024.
APAC
The Asian White Oil market experienced an overall bearish trend during Q4 2024, with prices initially rising by approximately 6.4% before declining by around 7.2%. In the first half of the quarter, refinery closures and reduced processing rates drove supply tightness, as negative refinery margins forced cutbacks. The average utilization rate of 50 state-owned refineries in China fell to a four-month low of 83% in October. During this period, four refineries underwent maintenance, collectively targeting a processing rate of 8.84 million barrels per day (b/d) compared to a combined capacity of 10.66 million b/d. Sinopec, one of China's major state-owned refiners, also reported a drop in primary utilization, falling to 84.5% in October from 90.3%, further contributing to supply constraints.
As the quarter progressed, White Oil supplies in China improved. November marked the first increase in refinery throughput in eight months, driven by Beijing's economic stimulus measures aimed at bolstering manufacturing and oil demand. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, refiners processed 58.51 million tonnes (MMt) of crude oil in November, equivalent to 14.24 million barrels per day (MMbpd), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. These developments alleviated some of the earlier supply pressures.
Toward the end of the quarter, destocking activities became prevalent as suppliers worked to reduce inventories. This surplus, combined with improved supply conditions, led to a decline in prices, ultimately reversing the initial gains seen earlier in the quarter and reinforcing the bearish market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, White Oil pricing in North America, especially in the USA, experienced a notable downward trend. This decline was influenced by several interconnected factors, including a significant decrease in demand from the cosmetic industry, coupled with reduced consumer spending, which contributed to a bearish market sentiment. Supply chain challenges, exacerbated by weather disruptions and ongoing geopolitical tensions, further complicated the situation.
Overall, prices decreased by 1% compared to the same quarter last year, with a similar decline observed between the first and second halves of the quarter. This downward pressure on prices was primarily driven by heightened production costs, increased freight charges, and lower refinery run rates, all of which limited the availability of White Oil. Despite improvements in water levels in the Panama Canal, which were expected to enhance the arbitrage opportunities for White Oil, supply conditions remained challenging. A critical issue was the prolonged shutdown of ExxonMobil's Joliet refinery in Illinois, one of the major facilities serving the Chicago area. The refinery lost power due to severe storms and tornado activity in late July, affecting its ability to operate. This incident led to the shutdown of multiple units, including the crude distillation unit and catalytic reformer, significantly impacting White Oil production in the region.
As a result of these dynamics, the quarter-ending price for White Oil cosmetic grade CFR Texas was recorded at USD 1,607/MT. This figure reflects the prevailing negative pricing environment, characterized by subdued demand and ongoing supply constraints that contributed to the overall decrease in prices throughout the quarter. The market's challenges underscored the fragility of supply chains and the impact of external factors on production and pricing.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced mixed performance in White Oil pricing, heavily influenced by global geopolitical tensions, weather disruptions, and fluctuating crude oil prices. China saw the most significant price changes due to supply issues, rising production costs, and subdued demand from the gasoil sector. Key challenges included refinery closures by state-run Sinochem Group, which affected about 2% of China's national output. The Zhenghe and Changyi refineries were closed due to high crude costs and weak fuel demand, impacting production significantly. Despite these closures, there was a slight recovery in production conditions, with the operating rate at small independent refineries rising to 53% in July. However, the scheduled maintenance of 420,000 b/d capacity from PetroChina and Sinopec added further complexity to supply. Overall, Q3 prices declined by 19% compared to last year and by 1% from the previous quarter. Nevertheless, a 2% price increase between the first and second halves of the quarter indicated some resilience, concluding with a quarter-ending price of USD 935/MT for White Oil Technical grade CFR Shenzhen in China.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European White Oil market experienced a predominantly bearish trend, largely influenced by a significant 12% decline in feedstock crude oil prices. Challenging production conditions persisted as major refinery operations operated below capacity due to decreasing margins, prompting organizations to conduct strategic reviews of their European assets. The closure of several refineries, coupled with anticipated future shutdowns, created additional obstacles for White Oil production. Maintenance turnarounds at various refineries during the summer vacation period further exacerbated supply constraints, impacting the availability of White Oil in the European market. Demand from downstream lubricant and cosmetic industries continued to underperform even after the summer vacations. Lubricant blenders across Europe reported ample availability of White Oil, indicating little to no urgency for purchasing larger quantities for stock replenishment. Consequently, prices, which had remained relatively high during the summer months, began to face downward pressure due to this lack of demand. Overall, the combination of reduced crude oil prices, supply chain challenges, and weak demand dynamics contributed to a negative pricing environment for White Oil in Europe during the third quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 in North America, particularly in the USA, has witnessed a steady pricing landscape for White Oil, marked by notable stability amidst varying factors. Despite fluctuations in crude oil prices and refinery operations, the market stability can be credited to balanced supply and demand dynamics, sufficient crude oil reserves, and consistent refinery utilization rates. Minor shifts in crude oil inventories due to geopolitical tensions and production adjustments had limited impact on White Oil prices, as demand absorbed available supplies effectively. In the USA,
White Oil prices experienced slight variations influenced by seasonal demand spikes, particularly during the peak summer season for cosmetic products. However, overall prices remained steady with no change observed between the first and second halves of the quarter. Year-over-year, prices decreased by 7%, indicating previous periods of higher volatility, while the quarter-on-quarter change showed a marginal decline of 1%, highlighting continued market stability.
Closing at USD 1622/MT for cosmetic grade CFR Texas, the quarter concluded with a reaffirmed sense of market equilibrium. Despite external pressures such as geopolitical uncertainties and refinery operations, the market's resilience ensured minimal and well-managed price adjustments. This consistent stability underscores a dependable and predictable market environment for White Oil pricing in North America, reflecting effective management of supply and demand dynamics amidst broader economic conditions.
APAC
In Q2 2024, White Oil prices in the APAC region have demonstrated a largely stable trend, influenced by several significant factors. Throughout this quarter, market dynamics were shaped by a balance between supply and demand, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating raw material costs. The region's ample crude oil supplies, aided by strategic imports and favourable production rates, contributed to stable pricing. However, high freight charges and production cuts due to maintenance overhauls exerted upward pressure, counterbalanced by weak demand from key downstream industries such as lubrication and construction. Focusing on China, the most significant fluctuations in White Oil pricing were observed. The market showed a -26% decrease compared to the same quarter last year, underscoring the lingering impacts of reduced industrial activity and subdued economic growth. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices declined by -7%, reflecting the ongoing moderation in demand and the effect of lower crude oil prices. Despite these changes, the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter remained constant, with no percentage change recorded. The correlation in price changes mirrored global crude oil trends and domestic economic activities, maintaining a steady equilibrium. The quarter-ending price for White Oil Technical Grade CFR Shenzhen stood at USD 920/MT, emphasizing the stable sentiment prevalent in the White Oil market. Overall, the pricing environment has been stable, neither overly positive nor negative, reflecting a well-balanced market landscape despite underlying volatility.
Europe
The European White Oil market mostly witnessed a mixed market sentiment initially with prices exhibiting a bullish market situation during the initial month of the second quarter, and then witnessing a bearish market for the remainder of the second quarter. Initially prices of the White Oil continued to climb attributed to rising production costs, despite demand conditions being moderate. However, towards the middle of this quarter, the market situation transformed as support from production cost waned. With prices of Crude Oil declining by more than 6% during the remainder of the second quarter, the European White Oil was prompted to witness a bearish market situation. Sluggish demand persisted throughout the second quarter for White Oil from the downstream paints and coating industries and from the lubricant industries as prices. Demand conditions from the lubricant industry continued to worsen, other than the fact that during the beginning the beginning of the quarter some suppliers were keen on restocking cargoes arriving from Asia, during early May 2024. However, high inflation rates continue dampened purchasing during the middle of the quarter. On the other hand, the persistent low demand from the paints and coating industry remained subdued through out this quarter. Declining permits, reduced procurement activities amongst German constructors and cancellation of projects continued to impart a negative pressure on the prices of the product. Overall, that market situation of White Oil across Europe, despite exhibiting a positive trend during the initial month, ultimately succumbed to the low demand conditions when this quarter came to a termination.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American White Oil market overall witnessed a stable situation during the opening quarter of 2024. Prices of White Oil were recorded to inclined by approximately 1.5% during the middle of this quarter but later declined by the same magnitude, in the latter half.
With weather conditions being challenging and logistical and transportation costs experiencing a hike, this translated into the prices of White Oil. Moreover, demand for the product was also recorded to be strong as North America witnessed an early and heavy winter season which led to a strong demand from the downstream cosmetic industry. Moreover, the festive New Year season also forecasted positive transactions in the downstream skincare sector.
Prices of White Oil experiencing a hike were also attributed to the expensive imports arriving at the North American market due to disruptions being recorded in key waterways, namely the Suez and Panama Canal, which prompted freight charges to almost double. However, the latter half witnessed steady declines in the prices of products as supply conditions improved with post-festive dullness initiating its effect. Despite prices of feedstock Crude Oil inflating by 10%, the prices did not translate into the prices of White Oil.
Asia
The Asian White Oil market witnessed an overall bearish trend as prices of the product slumped by approximately 20%. The continued slump in the prices of the product was attributed to the low demand from the downstream lubrication industry as manufacturing activities continued to remain in contraction in China and improved only during March 2024. Automotive sales even though witnessed a surge in January 2024, later depreciated overall by 20% as the post-festive dullness continued to prevail across the Chinese market. Moreover, the demand from the construction sector was also recorded to be low as housing starts and house prices continued to decline throughout this quarter, leading to pushback of the construction materials. Despite prices of feedstock Crude Oil increasing by almost 20%, the Asian White Oil market was driven by subdued manufacturing activities, subdued automotive sales, and subdued construction sector. Towards the termination of the third quarter, the construction activity showed some momentum, but suppliers were recorded to be hesitant to procure further material leading to stockpiling of inventories.
Europe
The European White Oil market was recorded to be largely stable despite prices of Crude Oil increasing by approximately 10% during the termination of the first quarter of 2024. The low demand from the downstream paints and coating sector continued to drive the European White Oil market as the construction sector continued to remain mired in the downturn. This is largely indicated by declining permits and construction projects. Overall real estate firms remained downbeat throughout the rest year with outlook conditions being largely pessimistic. Overall investment sentiments remained historically negative with contractions witnessed in all segments of the construction sector, namely residential, commercial building, and civil engineering activities. However, during the middle of the first quarter, the European Polyurethane market received support from the demand side due to improvements in the demand from the importing British, Dutch, and Belgian markets where the construction sector improved. Moreover, challenging conditions in the existing supply chain system also contributed to the increments in the prices due to strikes by Union Workers, which led to limited functionality of railways and resulted in limitations in transportation and logistics.
