Canada is set to maintain its position as the world’s third-largest wheat exporter for the second consecutive year, driven by the increased production across the prairie provinces, according to the several media reports. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates that Canada has surpassed Australia in global wheat exports for the 2023-24 crop year, with forecasts suggesting a similar outcome for 2024-25. This solidifies Canada’s status, placing it behind only Russia and the European Union in terms of export volumes.

The current fall harvest, nearing completion, reflects improved yields in Western Canada, where drought conditions have been less severe compared to previous years. Last year, despite experiencing drought, Canada managed to secure third place in global wheat production due to the significant weather-related declines in Australian crop yields. In the 2023-24 season, Canada exported nearly about 21.8 megatons of wheat to 65 countries, with China, Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh, and the United States identified as the top buyers.

Looking ahead, global wheat consumption is anticipated to rise by 0.6 percent in the 2024-25 period, spurred by increasing demand from North America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, according to USDA projections. Among the various wheat types, Canadian durum wheat—a variety extensively cultivated in the southern prairie provinces and commonly used for pasta—continues to see robust demand from markets in Europe and North Africa. The Canadian Grain Commission reports that durum wheat exports through Canada’s licensed elevator system are already 25 percent ahead of last year’s levels this fall.

Wheat is particularly vulnerable to drought due to its high-water requirements, making it more susceptible than other staple crops like maize, rice, and soy. The World Resources Institute has projected that by 2040, nearly three-quarters of global wheat production may be threatened by water scarcity and climate-induced stress.

Despite of all these kind of challenges, Canadian farmers have been able to enhance the wheat yields through advancements in crop genetics and breeding, allowing the country to remain resilient in the face of changing weather conditions. While the progress in wheat genetics and favourable currency exchange rates contribute to Canada’s export strength, industry experts recognize that the wheat sector still heavily relies on the favourable weather.

As Canadian farmers remain committed to improving their wheat production capabilities, they also aims to uphold and further strengthen Canada’s standing in the global wheat market, ensuring that the country continues to play a vital role in meeting the world’s food needs.