Asian n-Methyl Aniline Prices aims to Stabilize in July after volatile June 2024

At the end of  Q2, n-Methyl Aniline prices surged in the Asian market during June 2024 and are expected to stabilize in July 2024. This price increase has occurred despite sluggish demand, driven by supply chain disruptions, reduced production rates, and high shipping costs in June 2024. However, production costs in the Asian market are anticipated to ease due to reduced cost pressures from declining upstream crude oil prices in the first half of July 2024.

From a supply perspective, the ongoing Red Sea shipping crisis continues to disrupt global supply chains, leading to significantly higher shipping costs with little potential for reduction. The primary shipping companies have responded by raising prices across various routes to adapt to these challenges in the Asian region.

During July 2024, prices for n-Methyl Aniline are expected to rise, reflecting a shift in market dynamics. This n-Methyl Aniline price increase is influenced by several factors. The OPEC basket price for crude oil reached USD 86 per barrel in the week ending July 12, 2024, marking a decrease after rising throughout the previous week. Meanwhile, from a supply perspective, the recent conflict in the Middle East has caused attacks on commercial vessels, significantly reducing maritime activity. Additionally, n-Methyl Aniline supplies are further impacted by reduced production rates in exporting countries such as Taiwan and South Korea. Additionally, port and dock workers at major ports in India plan hunger strikes. This planned strike also impacts the n-Methyl Aniline supply chain.

The demand for n-Methyl Aniline in July 2024 is experiencing a complex interplay of factors. The ongoing weak petroleum industry market in China, reduced refinery throughput, significant stockpiling, and the delicate balance between imports and domestic production are key elements shaping the demand landscape.

In June 2024, the total crude available to refiners was 15.67 million bpd, with 11.30 million bpd from imports and 4.37 million bpd from domestic output. The volume of oil processed was 14.19 million bpd. For the first six months of 2024, the available volume was 15.34 million bpd, while the refinery throughput was 14.44 million bpd. This slight excess in crude availability over processing capacity suggests potential volatility in the demand for processing chemicals like n-Methyl Aniline.

As per ChemAnalyst, refineries adjust their operations in response to these market conditions, and the consumption of n-Methyl Aniline may continue to fluctuate. The observed n-Methyl Aniline price rise during the first half of July suggests either an increase in anticipatory demand or supply constraints, making the market more dynamic and volatile.