For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of 2024, N-methyl aniline prices in the U.S. market experienced volatility, driven by disruptions in the petroleum industry and global oil supply dynamics. As a key component in fuel additives, N-Methyl Aniline's demand is closely tied to the fluctuations within the petroleum sector. Throughout Q3, supply chain disruptions, primarily caused by reduced oil production due to hurricanes and maintenance activities, influenced the pricing environment for N-Methyl Aniline.
Oil production declines, particularly within OPEC, led to a constrained supply of petroleum products, directly impacting demand for fuel additives such as N-Methyl Aniline. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a 0.7% reduction in global oil production, with OPEC output dropping by 650,000 barrels per day (bpd).
This tightening in the oil market indirectly affected N-Methyl Aniline availability, contributing to price stability despite weakening demand in the downstream petroleum industry. While the market saw reduced activity due to lower production rates, maintenance activities in non-OPEC regions, along with seasonal influences, led to moderate price increases for N-Methyl Aniline.
Asia
In the quarter ending September 2024, the APAC region witnessed stable prices for N-methyl aniline, with India experiencing the most significant price changes. The regional market was influenced by various factors, including stable demand from the petroleum sector, limited supplies, and fluctuating import costs. Additionally, disruptions such as port congestion and labor strikes impacted the supply chain, adding pressure on prices. The overall trend in the region showed consistency, with minor fluctuations in pricing. Seasonal factors like the festive season and winter demand played a role in price movements, while correlations with global oil prices and economic activities influenced market dynamics. Despite a 5.2% increase from the previous quarter, the pricing environment remained stable throughout Q3 2024. Notable disruptions during the quarter included port congestion and labor strikes, affecting supply chains, such as Mundra Port congestion, and Port and dock workers' hunger strikes. The quarter ended with a price of USD 2712/MT of n-Methyl Aniline CFR JNPT in India, reflecting a stable pricing environment overall during the third quarter of 2024.
Europe
The third quarter of 2024 was a period of significant price increases for N-methyl Aniline in the European region, driven by a combination of factors. Market dynamics were largely influenced by stabilized demand from downstream industries such as the Petroleum industry, along with supply chain disruptions and reduced production rates across the region. These challenges created a supply shortage, pushing prices upwards. The Netherlands experienced the most substantial price changes during this period, reflecting the overall trend in the European market. The euro area’s manufacturing sector contracted further at the close of the third quarter. Moreover, global refining margins are narrowing, signaling a decrease in profitability for converting crude oil into petroleum products. This decline is primarily attributed to relatively weak demand for petroleum products, even as global refining capacity continues to expand, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The oversupply of refined products, combined with sluggish demand, has put downward pressure on margins across the N-methyl Aniline market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the N-methyl Aniline market in North America demonstrated notable stability, particularly in the latter half of the quarter, influenced by several significant factors shaping its pricing landscape. During this period, balanced demand and supply chains played a crucial role in maintaining price stability. The petroleum industry, a key downstream sector, exhibited moderate demand, contributing to the equilibrium in N-methyl Aniline pricing. Expected seasonal fluctuations, such as the Atlantic hurricane season, led downstream market participants to adopt cautious procurement strategies, ensuring their stockpiles were sufficiently padded against potential disruptions.
In the USA, which experienced the most pronounced price activities during this period, N-methyl Aniline prices remained fundamentally stable. This reflected a stable sentiment in the N-methyl Aniline market, indicating neither positive nor negative volatility but rather an equilibrium maintained by balanced supply-demand dynamics and prudent inventory management.
Hurricane Beryl halted industrial production in the USA in June 2024, and floods further disrupted downstream demand in the petroleum industry. Imports of US-origin N-methyl Aniline gained traction in the North American market, with US producers maintaining strong pricing due to reduced domestic supplies and high local prices during this quarter.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the N-methyl aniline market in the APAC region exhibited an upward trend in pricing, driven by a blend of critical factors. The overall market sentiment was notably positive, underpinned by increased demand from the downstream petroleum and textile sectors. The surge in prices was further exacerbated by limited stock availability and escalating freight and raw material costs. The geopolitical tensions in key exporting regions and erratic weather conditions also contributed to the price hikes, as these factors disrupted regular supply chains and inflated operational costs. Compounded by high energy prices and input costs, these dynamics created a robust environment for price increases. In India, the N-methyl aniline market experienced the most significant price changes within the APAC region. The Indian market defied typical seasonal trends this monsoon season, with heightened demand from the petroleum and textile industries. The downstream demand recovery, combined with low inventory levels, drove prices higher. The correlation between supply constraints and demand resurgence was evident, as new export orders surged and the real estate sector hit a decade-high peak, further bolstering demand. The overall pricing environment for N-Methyl Aniline in Q2 2024 has been resulted as positive, with the latest quarter-ending price recorded at USD 2634/MT CFR JNPT in India. This sustained increase, coupled with strategic supply chain disruptions and geopolitical factors, underscores the bullish market conditions prevalent throughout the quarter.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the n-methyl Aniline market in Europe exhibited a persistent yet moderate upward trend, largely influenced by a combination of supply constraints, heightened production costs, and fluctuating feedstock prices. The prevailing disruptions in supply chains, coupled with strategic production cutbacks by the manufacturers, have exacerbated the scarcity of the material. Additionally, increased operational expenses and stable demand from the petroleum sector have collectively driven the n-methyl Aniline pricing environment upward. Focusing on Germany, the market has experienced the most pronounced price changes within the region. The seasonality factor played a crucial role, with increased demand from the Petroleum sector, consistent with typical seasonal cycles. This incremental yet consistent rise is reflective of a balanced market condition, where slight demand improvements are met with constrained supply, fostering a stable to positive pricing environment. Concluding Q2 2024, the prices of n-methyl Aniline, marked a steady culmination of the quarter’s upward trend and affirmed the positive pricing momentum despite underlying volatility. Additionally, port operations were affected by a workers’ strike impacting ports such as Hamburg, Bremen, Bremerhaven, Brake, and Emden in June 2024. The dispute over the collective agreement has led to strikes at German container ports and halted activities at the Port of Hamburg for two days before a fourth round of negotiations began. The strikes later affected Wilhelmshaven, Bremen, and Emden, causing operational disruptions at container terminals. A prolonged strike could delay operations at Hamburg and Bremerhaven ports in August, severely impacting German exports, particularly in the automotive and machinery sectors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the North American N-Methyl Aniline market sustained an upward price trajectory. The market remained bullish with limited inventories and moderate demand. However, the industry encountered challenges such as disruptions in logistics and rising freight rates due to ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea region.
Potential disruptions to shipping supply routes through Baltimore were partly mitigated by additional storage capacity in nearby areas like Philadelphia. Nonetheless, even minor logistical challenges could impact pricing in the region. The closure of the Port of Baltimore coincided with increased production rates in Europe, potentially resulting in surplus N-Methyl Aniline that could be sold to the US East Coast.
Concerns persisted about low inventory levels in northeastern US tanks, although there was slight improvement recently, allowing for more consistent price increases compared to regions with better supply and logistics. This was primarily driven by constrained production volumes and increased demand from the downstream sector. Despite these challenges, no plant shutdowns were reported during the first quarter of 2024.
APAC
The pricing environment for N-Methyl Aniline in the APAC region during Q1 2024 was marked by various factors that influenced market prices. Overall, there was a positive trend in prices, with the most significant increase occurring in the Indian market. Limited supplies and stock shortages played a crucial role in driving up prices. Reduced production rates in major exporting countries led to low imports and limited availability of the product in India. Additionally, delays in cargo movement caused by the ongoing situation in the Red Sea further contributed to increased costs and tight stock availability. Demand for N-Methyl Aniline in the downstream manufacturing industry was moderate, with improved production rates driving growth in the Indian market. However, downstream orders were limited, leading to further price increases due to supply disruptions and low stock availability. Looking at the price trend, there was a significant surge in prices for N-Methyl Aniline in India during Q1 2024. The latest quarter-ending price stood at USD 2465/MT of N-Methyl Aniline CFR JNPT in India. This represented a positive change compared to the previous quarter and a significant increase from the same quarter last year. In conclusion, the pricing environment for N-Methyl Aniline in the APAC region during Q1 2024 was positive, with limited supplies and high demand driving up prices, particularly in the Indian market. The trend was stable, with prices increasing from the previous quarter and showing significant year-on-year growth.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the European N-Methyl Aniline market faced significant challenges, including restricted supplies, due to weak downstream demand. Despite these disruptions, N-Methyl Aniline prices surged in the German market due to increased downstream petroleum industry demand. The downstream Petroleum and agrochemical industry showed signs of recovery, driven by anticipated global demand increases, though challenges arose from projected decreases in Russian exports to the European Union due to trade sanctions. However, the U.S industry continued to grow despite a slowdown in GDP, highlighting complex global economic dynamics. The resurgence of consumption in Europe played a key role in the industrial revival. Consequently, N-Methyl Aniline prices reflected positive indications of recovery in downstream orders, while challenges such as disruptions in logistics and the need to reroute paths due to turmoil in the Red Sea persisted in the German market. Overall, the quarter underscored the interconnectedness of global economic factors impacting the N-Methyl Aniline market in Europe.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, n-methyl Aniline prices were relatively stable in the North American region. Meanwhile, the American n-Methyl Aniline market situation remained balanced during December 2023, and prices experienced stagnancy, with no marked shift in the purchasing sentiments from the downstream Fertilizer industry.
N-Methyl Aniline buyers had paused purchasing activities in anticipation of further discounts in the prices as the downstream market faced challenges due to various factors, including logistics and hampered production rates. According to the analysis, the export prices for US n-Methyl Aniline showed no variation in the middle of December and were also likely to be influenced by the uncertain downstream market dynamics in January 2024.
From the supply perspective, globally, freight markets had experienced elevated demurrage costs and extended transit voyage times due to congestion in major international waterways in the preceding months. The crucial Panama Canal route had been affected by low water levels, leading to restrictions on vessel hull drafts and reduced transit volumes throughout the quarter ending December 2023.
APAC
The APAC region experienced a mixed quarter for n-methyl Aniline pricing in Q4 2023. While some countries saw stability in prices, others faced downward pressure due to weak demand and abundant stocks. One of the primary factors affecting the market was the limited supplied market, which led to price increases in some regions. Additionally, the slow increase in downstream demand in certain countries, such as India, contributed to stable prices. However, the overall market sentiment remained cautious, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach. There were no reported plant shutdowns during this quarter. In Asia, the prices of n-methyl Aniline remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter, as the market saw a slow increase in domestic demand in the fertilizer industry. The regional market experienced a balanced market situation, with moderate to high demand. Looking ahead, stability in the downstream demand and potential restocking activities are expected to influence the price trend in the first quarter of 2024. Additionally, supplier stocks were elevated, leading to the availability of some lower-priced deals as the year-end approached in November 2023. Due to these demand-related factors, profit margins for Nonyl Phenol players in the Asian market were being squeezed for December 2023 as well.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, n-Methyl Aniline prices in the European market experienced a decline amid sluggish downstream demand momentum. European traders and manufacturers were primarily concerned about reduced demand from the downstream fertilizer industry, resulting in only modest price fluctuations despite concerns about freight disruptions towards the end of the quarter. The notable factor of extended transit times for imports was highlighted by a producer. Additionally, the ample availability of inventories had negatively impacted the n-methyl Aniline prices. Germany witnessed the most significant price changes, following a bearish trend for most of 2023. Efforts to reduce operating rates as a strategy to protect profit margins for producers and traders proved ineffective, given the competitive pressures from the import market. Despite production cutbacks, n-methyl Aniline supplies continued to face challenges due to low demand in Q4 of 2023. In conclusion, the n-Methyl Aniline market in the region witnessed stable demand, and moderate to low supply. European downstream markets demonstrated stability in purchasing confidence with a slight decline compared to the previous quarter weighing on the supply-related price change factors.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In the North American region, the N-methyl aniline prices exhibited an upward trajectory during the third quarter of 2023 and primarily resulted from the positive demand from downstream sectors such as agrochemicals and the increasing international orders for the product. Notably, the United States witnessed an uptick in the N-methyl aniline prices after August 2023 influenced by disruptions within the supply chain, slowed by elevated freight expenses, and diminished levels in the Mississippi River. Furthermore, the production of the commodity in the USA was adversely affected by Hurricane Idalia, particularly in regions along the Florida Gulf Coast. Consequently, this reduction in output led to a deficiency in the inventories, making it challenging to fulfill domestic market requirements by the end of the quarter. Throughout the quarter, regional N-methyl aniline prices exhibited a narrow range of fluctuations in the USA in the line of the escalation in energy input costs during the latter part of Q3 and exerted additional pressure on production expenses, further influencing the pricing dynamics of the product in September 2023.
Asia
The N-methyl aniline prices in the Asian market exhibited mixed market sentiments in the third quarter of 2023, primarily resulting from the delayed cargo momentum in the regional market. Notably, the Chinese market witnessed a decline in N-Methyl Aniline prices, owing to the diminished demand and surplus supplies in the mid-quarter period. Furthermore, the deceleration of orders within the regional market negatively impacted the demand for the downstream agrochemical industry. In a significant turn of events, the N-Methyl Aniline market experienced production disruptions caused by a typhoon, which led to operational constraints and a subsequent reduction in domestic product supplies towards the close of the quarter. In response, market participants adjusted prices upward during the final weeks of September 2023 in line with the expectations of a rise in demand from the agrochemical sector amid harvesting season in the region. In summary, the prices in the Asian region remained relatively stable, with the regional N-Methyl Aniline market demonstrating equilibrium driven by moderate downstream demand, while the presence of sufficient supply supported the price dynamics of the product in the region during the third quarter of the year.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2023, the European N-Methyl Aniline prices experienced a decline due to the reduced regional procurement activities and subdued demand from downstream sectors. A drop in procurement, alongside elevated interest rates, resulted in reduced consumption of N-Methyl Aniline within the first half of the quarter by downstream industries. On the supply front, the N-methyl aniline pricing trajectory was notably influenced by lower operational costs in August 2023. Furthermore, a decrease in input pressure has stimulated production activities throughout the German market, thereby influencing the pricing dynamics of the product in the middle of the quarter. Additionally, the extended summer breaks in Europe prompted a cautious approach among consumers, who opted to engage in pre-purchasing activities for the upcoming months of the year. Despite heightened volatility in crude oil prices, there is an expectation that core inflation will decrease, raising concerns about the uncertainty in the downstream market and N-Methyl Aniline offtakes in the Eurozone along with a marginal revival in the economic growth in this quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
North American n-Methyl Aniline market showcased fluctuation throughout the second quarter of 2023 on the back of an uncertain market outlook and fluctuating feedstock prices. As per the market sources, demand fundamentals for multiple commodities in the US market kept on changing due to blurry crude futures and never-ending hikes in interest rates in the country. Furthermore, supplies for the product were observed to be stable where minor hiccups in availability were observed during the mid of the quarter, affecting the price trend for a short period of time. Going further, production costs also remained one of the major drivers for the rising price trend, which escalated during May and eased down a bit in June 2023. At the same time, the economic slowdown was a key concern for the domestic players, as shown by FRED, Producer Price Index for Industrial Chemicals traced a downward trajectory continuously for all three months, settling around 309.771 in June 2023 falling from 328.277 in April 2023. Thus, market participants were anxious regarding the future demand scenarios of the country.
Asia
The Asian market has witnessed an overall uptrend for n-Methyl Aniline throughout the second quarter of 2023. After witnessing a significant fall during the final month of last quarter, n-Methyl Aniline prices rebound in April and sustained this uptrend continue till the end of the quarter. It was observed that n-Methyl Aniline prices in India rose by around 11% during this quarter and assessed around USD 2560/MT during May 2023. A short-term shortage in spot availability remained the key factor behind this steep rise in prices. Further, this price hike was primarily influenced by expensive imports from the regional key players. n-Methyl Aniline prices sustained an uptrend throughout the quarter owing to consistently improving demand fundamentals amidst moderate availability of the product. Indian market had been performing better than many other economies, while global major economies had faced a threat of recession, India was one of those countries who have zero possibility of a recession. Demand from the octane booster segment remained moderate to high during this period, as almost all the economic activities were performing efficiently.
Europe
The European market has been battling with low demand and high inflation for a long time, during this quarter n-Methyl Aniline market did not remain untouched. Market sources revealed that the demand fundamentals for n-Methyl Aniline had been low since the start of the quarter, which led to a consistent dullness in procurement activities and eventually resulted in a decline in the prices of the commodities. The data shows a consistent and sharp decline in feedstock methanol prices in the European market during this quarter, affecting the prices of downstream derivatives including n-Methyl Aniline. Further, regional trade activities have also been affected by internal issues like violence in France and drought condition Mississippi River which affected the overall supply chain. The data released by Eurostat show that the Producer Price Index (PPI, Industry) of the region declined from 138.3 (April 2023) to 136.3 (May 2023) proving that under the influence of low demand, prices have been falling across the regional market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
Q1 2023 was heard to be injecting uncertainties in the prices of several commodities, including N-Methyl Aniline, in the North American market. As per the data, N-Methyl Aniline prices kept on oscillating throughout the quarter on a biweekly basis, while raw material prices also showcased mixed sentiments, together resisting any significant growth in the prices of the product. Raw material Aniline prices were observed to be rising throughout this timeframe, while another raw material, Methanol, fluctuated month over a monthly basis. Further, the US economy was under the dark clouds of the fear of recession and rising inflation in the country, which was resisting any significant growth in demand for commodities in the country.
Asia
In March 2023, despite seasonal demand, prices of N-Methyl Aniline for downstream industries in India remained low due to low demand in the international market. Supply remained moderate while global freight charges declined, affecting the prices of imported commodities. In February 2023, N-Methyl Aniline prices rose due to the hit of seasonal demand from downstream industries in India, which performed better than many major economies. Supply remained stable, and expensive imports drove the price trend. Demand was high, and it is expected to rise further in the coming months due to the better performance of downstream industries in the absence of any threat of recession.
Europe
The European market remained dull throughout the first quarter of 2023 owing to prolonged market steadiness amidst stockpiled products in the region. As per the data, feedstock methanol and aniline prices witnessed a significant fall during the first half of the quarter, leading to an ease in prices of downstream commodities, including N-Methyl Aniline. Despite some supply chain disturbances caused by snow, supplies remained stable to firm, and the narrow demand-supply gap supported a downward price trend. Additionally, the low risk of a recession generated hope for future months, which might help prices to rebound.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
The North American N-Methyl Aniline market had a strong beginning to the fourth quarter of 2022; its prices rose significantly at the start of the quarter before falling as the end of the quarter drew closer. The N-Methyl Aniline prices increased in October, only to decline consistently in the following two months. Because of shifts in downstream demand from various industries, the market price of N-Methyl Aniline fluctuated. Throughout the quarter, the demand for N-Methyl Aniline in the domestic market remained inconsistent because of the unstable market circumstances for the downstream fertilizer industry. Furthermore, the N-Methyl Aniline market's growth over the course of the quarter and market pricing were both impacted by fluctuating manufacturing costs and fluctuating upstream costs.
APAC
The fourth quarter of 2022 saw a great start for the N-Methyl Aniline market in the Asia-Pacific region; its prices increased significantly at the beginning of the quarter before declining towards the second half of the quarter. Prices for N-Methyl Aniline rose in October before steadily falling over the next two months. The market price of N-Methyl Aniline changed due to changes in downstream demand from different sectors. Because of the erratic market conditions for the downstream fertilizer industry during the quarter, there was intermittent demand for N-Methyl Aniline in the domestic market. Furthermore, changes in product prices and changes in upstream costs also had an impact on the growth of the N-Methyl Aniline market during the quarter, as well as market pricing.
Europe
Like North America and APAC, the fourth quarter of 2022 had a great start for the European N-Methyl Aniline market as well. As the end of the quarter approached, its value began to decline. In October, prices for N-Methyl Aniline rose, but during the next two months, they steadily fell. N-Methyl Aniline's market price changed due to changes in downstream demand from different sectors. Due to the inconsistent market conditions for the downstream fertilizer industry during the quarter, demand for N-Methyl Aniline in the domestic market remained uneven. In addition, shifting production costs and shifting upstream costs had an impact on the N-Methyl Aniline market's growth throughout the quarter and market pricing.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The prices of N-Methyl Aniline declined consistently in the North American market during the third quarter of 2022, backed by the depleting market value of feedstock Aniline. Due to the falling upstream Crude oil prices, aniline prices were consistently falling in North America. The recession fears have impacted the region’s economy. Following the upstream crude oil prices, the cost of the crude derivative was in a downward trend. Additionally, there was a significant supply of Aniline in the local market due to the substantial imports of the substance from European nations. Furthermore, the downstream demand from agrochemicals, petrochemicals, and dyes industries was not that strong during the quarter, which further supported the price drop of N-Methyl Aniline in the market.
APAC
In contrast with the North American market trend, the N-Methyl Aniline prices increased dramatically in the Asia-Pacific region during the third quarter of 2022 on the back of strong demand from downstream industries. As N-Methyl Aniline majorly finds its usage in the agrochemicals industry, and the demand for fertilizers surged in the market during the quarter, the enquiry for N-Methyl Aniline rose correspondingly. Though the prices of feedstock Aniline kept declining until the month of September, the market was dominated by the demand side. Hence the value of N-Methyl Aniline soared. In September, the assessed price value of N-Methyl Aniline was USD 2575.33/MT Ex-Mumbai (India).
Europe
Unlike North America and Asia-Pacific region, the N-Methyl Aniline pricing trend remained unstable in the European market during the third quarter of 2022, backed by unsteady upstream cost. The market of N-Methyl Aniline showcased a bullish trend in July and September while depicting a decline in August. As feedstock Aniline kept fluctuating throughout the quarter, so did the manufacturing cost involved in N-Methyl Aniline, which resulted in a higher price value of N-Methyl Aniline during the quarter. Furthermore, the downstream demand from agrochemicals, petrochemicals, and dyes was unsteady during the quarter, which eventually supported the flickering N-Methyl Aniline market sentiments.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
In the second quarter of 2022, the price of N-Methyl Aniline fluctuated due to shifting upstream costs. N-Methyl Aniline market value rose until May before abruptly falling in June. The upstream costs involved in producing n-Methyl Aniline climbed along with the pricing value of the feedstock Aniline until it experienced a considerable decline in June. As a result, the market's perception of N-Methyl Aniline flickered. Furthermore, the first half of the quarter saw robust downstream demand from the agrochemicals, petrochemicals, and dye industries. However, as soon as the second part of the quarter began, the offtake began to decline. The price of N-Methyl Aniline increased due to surged energy costs, escalated freight expenses, and congested ports due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
APAC
The N-Methyl Aniline market showcased a completely contrasting pricing trend in India and China. On the one hand, the market value of N-Methyl Aniline declined after April in India. On the other, China witnessed an escalation in the price of N-Methyl Aniline after April. Corresponding Feedstock Aniline prices entirely backed the market sentiments in both these countries. As the value of Aniline decreased in May and June in India and depicted a reversed trend in China, the upstream cost involved in the manufacturing of N-Methyl Aniline proceeded accordingly. Furthermore, the downstream demand from dye, agrochemical, and petrochemical industries was weak in the Indian market, deteriorating the N-Methyl Aniline market. The offtake of N-Methyl Aniline from the same downstream industries was good in Chinese domestic market, which backed up the propel in N-Methyl Aniline prices.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2022, the pricing trend for N-Methyl Aniline revealed conflicting feelings in the European market. The market value decreased in May after rising in April, then rose again in June but fell short of the value in April. Prices for N-methyl Aniline fluctuated along with the feedstock Aniline market during the quarter due to the strong demand for Aniline from the downstream industries. N-Methyl Aniline pricing value increased because of its escalated usage in the dyes, agrochemicals, and petrochemicals industries. Conclusively, N-Methyl Aniline prices in Europe fluctuated because of shifting supply and demand dynamics in the domestic market.
