Anhydrous Ammonia and its derivatives, such as Urea and Urea-Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) fertilizer prices, fell significantly at the start of 2023. This decline was primarily caused by a lack of demand for all products and further drops in European Natural Gas prices in the previous month. As anticipated, the Ammonia settlement for January 2023 was reduced in Tampa, which left the U.S. Ammonia market largely quiet. There were reports of some initial fill proposals with lower prices than what was offered, but overall, the domestic market was stable until the anticipated price reset in February 2023.

There have been no significant modifications to prior Corn Belt offers from December, which ranged from $950 to $1,100/MT FOB. Even in the Southern United States, including Texas, January's patchy precipitation and winter weather prevented significant early-season activity.

Additionally, Oklahoma factory rates were reported to have decreased last month, falling to $870–$885/MT FOB. Most buyers have not yet expressed interest in 2023, preferring to hold off in anticipation of decreasing prices closer to spring seed treatment direct application. Sellers in the market have reported that Ammonia pre-order sales were gloomy compared to other years, which may possibly lead to more logistical stress than usual for spring 2023.

Following a decline in Natural Gas prices in Europe in January, the Ammonia market experienced a decline. The lower price of Natural Gas boosted the prospect of an increase in Ammonia production in Europe in late December 2022 and early January 2023. In late January, additional direction came from the U.S. Gulf, with Yara and Mosaic agreeing to $790/MT CFR Tampa for February as part of their monthly supply contract.

According to ChemAnalyst, more price cuts in the U.S. Ammonia market are likely as it is currently quiet until spring demand may pick up in March or April.